Remember When I Almost Fucked Up The Fernando Tatis, Jr. Trade?
Let me take all the new school Stoolies through a little walk in the past of WSD. It was the summer of 2016. I was currently in game 3 of a triple header in softball at Lincoln Park. It was a perfect day outside; sunny, warm and the beers were FLOWING in the dugout. Typical Saturday in the City of Big Shoulders. I was HAMMERED drunk. Seeing three softballs every time I was at the plate. "Just swing at the middle ball" I'd tell myself.
That's when it happened:
My phone started to explode. Tweets, texts, everything. You see, a week or so earlier, I got a scoop from a long time friend who was once affiliated with the Sox that they were sending Erik Johnson and Fernando Tatis, Jr. to the Padres for James Shields:
At the time, I loved it. I thought Shields had some juice in the tank and he'd fit in perfectly with Sale and Quintana, even though he was fresh off a start where he allowed this to happen:
I didn't think anything of it. Erik Johnson was a top 50 prospect who looked like ASS for the Sox before they dealt him and Tatis, Jr. was just some scrawny 16 year old who had never played a game stateside after signing with the Sox a few months earlier. The big boys all confirmed my report:
Even Portnoy gave me my credit:
And that was that. And by that I mean James Shields was COOKED after a great 10+ seasons and Tatis Jr. IMMEDIATELY started flying up prospect rankings once he got into the Padres system and was playing stateside. It looked bad, but whatever. Bad trades happen a lot. I wasn't mad at it. I'm salty as FUCK today, but not "mad" if that makes sense. The worst part by FAR to me is that I reported the exact details of the trade a week early and it made things "complicated" between the White Sox and Padres, as in other potential suitors checked in and knew exactly what they had to beat to acquire Shields. That's why it took a week or so from my report to the completion of the trade. To think that I was *this close* to fucking up the trade will haunt my dreams forever. It might very well go down as the worst trade in MLB history but s'all good, man. We got Timmy A, Yoan, Robert, Gio, Pito, Eloy, Grandal, Vaughn, Kopech and more, right?
Right. That's what I'm telling myself.
Now let's get into the deal. At a glance, I would have said I don't know what the Padres are doing and that it makes no sense to me. Tatis Jr. made these figures thus far:
2019: $555K
2020: prorated min (would have made like $700K maybe)
2021: pre-arb raise (would have made around $1MM maybe)
2022-2024 arb eligible
In years 2022 through 2024 he would have been arb eligible and assuming he is playing like the MVP talent that he is, he would have (to keep things simple and round) made ~$10MM, $18MM and $30MM all of which would have been arbitration records, or close to it. Then he'd be a free agent and go off and sign a $350MM+ deal with whomever.
But he's now controlled through 2034 at an AAV of ~$25MM/ year. Assuming my figures in the paragraph above were close enough, you can say he'd have made about $50MM in earnings in the years 2022 through 2024. Now he's set to make $75MM in those years. What the Padres are doing is locking up Tatis, Jr. though his age 35 season at a $25MM AAV at what is basically a 11 year, $290MM contract, even though they're "overpaying" for the rest of his arb years and maybe by a lot.
That, my friends, is incredible for the Padres. Sure they're paying a lump sum up front (The extra ~$25MM or so) and there's always the risk of injury, but Tatis, Jr. could be the best player in baseball (yes, better than Trout) as soon as this season, and the Padres have him locked up for life. I have beaten the "these aren't actually team friendly deals!!!" drum with the Robert, Eloy, Moncada and Sale deals for a LONG time now, but assuming he stays healthy, this is as team friendly as it gets.
Shout out to AJ Preller and the Padres. They killed this one. After looking at it deeper, this should turn out to be VERY team friendly. All that counts against a teams payroll with respect to the lux tax (which the Pads are rapidly approaching now) is AAV, not how much a player is earning in a given season, and at ~$25MM AAV and a higher lux tax threshold year over year, the Padres are going to reallllllly like that $25MM figure. They're paying a premium now to not just lock him up through his prime, but to lock him up for his career. Masterful job by them. Masterful.
Now I'm gonna go construct hypothetical 2021 White Sox lineups with Tatis Jr included in them, leave me alone the rest of the night you cock suckers
PS - Jared nailed this one