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Katie Stats' National Championship Preview

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We did it. We finally fucking made it. We made it through the season in more or less one piece. And here we have my final blog, or at least the final stats based one for the year. Let me know what you want in the off season, I need ideas. BUT, we’re here at the national championship. Many people thought this title would come with an asterisk due to the pandemic, but I think we can now all safely say that there is no asterisk in sight. While you're here, remember to tune into our live stream for the game, and/or listen to our (Unnecessary Roughness) Championship Preview episode. I’m excited for this game, and just hope it’s a good one. So, for the last time this season, let’s get to it. 

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#3 Ohio State vs. #1 Alabama @ Hard Rock Stadium, 8pm, (opened Bama -7, 76)

  • Matchup: In the past 2 years, games in January's the over is 4-14-1. This season the over is 2-5-1. As of Sunday night the number of bets placed on the spread, total, and ML are split close to 50/50; ranging 45-55%. 

    • 2015: Ohio State won 42-35 (OSU +8, o59)

  • Ohio State (7-0) games have been averaging 65.4 total points with OSU scoring 43.4 of them. Run and throw the ball equally. Only allow 96.7 rushing yards per game, which is 2nd in the nation. They do allow 261.3 passing yards per game, which is 116th.

    • Spread: In their L4 January games are 4-1 ATS in the L5. As an underdog, are 8-1 in the L9, and since 2015 are 4-1. After an upset win are 5-1 ATS in the L6. 

    • Total: The over is 4-1 in the L5. At a neutral site the under is 4-1 in the L5.

    • SU: As an underdog are 8-1 in the L9, and since 2015 are 4-1. After an upset win, they have won the L11.

  • Alabama (12-0) games have been averaging 67.2 total points, with Alabama scoring 48.2 of them. Can run the ball well but are a heavy passing team. Jaylen Waddle is a game time decision for the Tide. 

    • Spread: Haven’t covered their L2 after they did cover their previous 7. At a neutral site they are 2-5 ATS in their L7. After allowing less than 20 points in a previous game, are 6-1 ATS in the L7. After not covering, are 7-1 ATS in the L8. On Mondays, are 1-4 ATS in the L5. Haven’t covered the L4 championship games. 

    • Total: On Mondays the over is 5-1 in the L6. The over has hit in the L4 championship games. When favored by less than 10 the over is 5-1 in the L6. The L4 games against undefeated teams have gone over. 

Here’s also some more ranking comparisons. It is the last game, I’m going to give you all I have. I know I’m sure as hell not confident about this game so maybe you’ll see something better in the numbers. 

The over for Alabama team points is my favorite bet here. Right now it’s at 42.5. You’re telling me that anyone is stopping the offensive powerhouse of Jones, Harris, Smith, and potentially Waddle? Remember that Clemson still put up 444 yards on Ohio State. Yes Ohio State held them to 44 rushing yards, but Alabama has way more offensive weapons. I think for both teams it will be a shootout but I have a little more confidence in Alabama’s offense than Ohio State’s. That said, I want Ohio State to win. How possible do I think it is? Ehhh possible for sure, but so many things will have to fall into place. Alabama has more room for error than Ohio State does. I’d pick Ohio State to cover so I can be on the right side of history, but I don’t have the balls to lock it in. I think Alabama wins in a blowout or Ohio State wins by a touchdown or less. 

If you do decide to bet on these, please do so responsibly. Hell I might start betting next year. FUCK. I DON'T WANT THIS SEASON TO BE OVER.