Everything You Need To Know To Get Ready For The NBA Season: Southeast Division
Michael Reaves. Getty Images.Previous division breakdowns below:
As we prepare for the season to kick off next week it's time to keep our division previews rolling. This time we're talking about the Southwest Division which just so happens to house the defending Eastern Conference champs. Of the six divisions we'll look at, I would say this is probably the weakest last year. While they did have two playoff teams last year, one of them was 7 games under .500. It's mostly a collection of teams that are either stuck in NBA purgatory or rebuilding, and then the Heat. But after an interesting offseason, there are reasons for optimism. This was actually one of the most active divisions in the entire offseason. Let's have a look.
Miami Heat
2019-20 record: 44-29
Key Offseason Additions: Avery Bradley, Maurice Harkless
Key Offseason Departures: Jae Crowder, James Johnson, Derrick Jones, Dion Waiters, Solomon Hill
Playoff Performance: Lost in 5 in the NBA Finals
The #1 question when it comes to the Miami Heat has to be if what we saw last year was a result of the weird bubble environment, or if they are actually for real. I tend to lean more towards the for real side. Everyone had the same circumstances in the bubble and we saw this Heat team run through three higher seeds on their way to the Finals. We saw Jimmy Butler take a leap. We saw their young shooters take a leap. We saw Bam back up his first All Star season by becoming a playoff monster. That wasn't all because they had to play in a bubble. People slept on them in the playoffs and they shut everyone up. But now comes the hard part. Now they have to live up to real expectations of being a true contender from here on out. They aren't going to surprise anyone moving forward, and you could argue will now have a target on their back.
Outside of losing Jae Crowder, they are bringing back pretty much everyone who played a big role in their playoff run. That's important. The additions of Avery and Mo Harkless are nice moves to improve their depth. They still have a great coach and flexibility to add more players now that Giannis is off the board. This is a team that had the 7th best offense, 12th best defense, and 7th best net rating last year and I'm not seeing any reason why they can't improve in all areas. Their young guys should be better defensively now that they have some experience under their belt, and offensively they have pretty much everything you need to continue to be a top 10 unit. They have the go to guy who comes through in the clutch in Butler, they have the shooting in Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro, they have the versatile big in Bam, and they all seem to love playing together.
So what makes the Heat so tough to guard? Well for starters, few teams are better at scoring off screens than the Heat. They ranked in the 96th percentile last year off screens. When you have shooters like Herro/Robinson that you can just run off multiple screens, that's tough. You basically can't take possessions off as a defender. This is also a team that barely uses isolation basketball. I'm talking the 27th highest frequency in the league. That's drastically different from any of the other top offenses like DAL/LAC/POR/HOU etc. When they need a bucket they know Jimmy can get it for them, but standing around and watching someone dribble is very much not part of their offensive strategy. They are all about ball movement, guys moving without the ball, and using Bam as a facilitator out of the high post. That's usually a recipe for success.
Why I think the Heat will be legit this year is mostly because they showed to be effective against good teams last year. They had 17 wins against teams .500 or better, which was tied with MIL for the most in the entire Eastern Conference. They were also 8-1 in OT games which shows how good they are in big pressure moments. We then saw them repeat that in the playoffs with insane production in the clutch during their postseason run.
All signs point to the Heat competing for a top 3 seed, so it'll be fascinating to see if they can back up the hype.
Orlando Magic
2019-20 record: 33-40
Key Offseason Additions: Cole Anthony (rookie), Dwayne Bacon
Key Offseason Departures: DJ Augstin, Wesley Iwundu
Playoff Performance: Lost in 5 in the first round
I hate to say it, but after back-to-back seasons of making the playoffs, I'm not sure that streak continues this year. The Magic are in that weird NBA purgatory where you most definitely do not want to be. They aren't good enough to really make a deep run, but also are too good to tank and finish in the high lottery. Granted they are still super young and are rebuilding, but they do have some decisions to make about their roster. If they are trending towards not making the playoffs, do they try and flip guys like Nikola Vucevic or Aaron Gordon? Maybe Terrance Ross or Evan Fournier to a contender who needs shooting? They have options.
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Last year the Magic showed real signs of being a good defensive unit, ranking 11th in the league, but offensively they were mostly a mess coming in around the bottom third in the league. So why should you feel hopeful as a Magic fan? Well for starters, Markelle Fultz looked like an actual NBA player last year. That's a huge win considering they basically got him for free. The backcourt of him and Cole Anthony actually looked pretty capable so far this preseason. Jonathan Isaac looked like a two way beast last year before getting hurt and he's only 23. We still have no clue what Mo Bamba might be, but he's 22. So you see, their best players are still verrrrrrrrrrry early in their NBA development. I mean shit, the oldest player on this roster is only 30 years old!
Hopefully, this is a season where we see the Magic stay healthy because their young talent is so intriguing. Unfortunately, that intriguing talent couldn't beat anyone good. I'm talking a 5-30 record against teams .500 or better. That is outrageously terrible. Only the Bulls were worse last year in the East. Something tells me they won't be able to make the playoffs again while being 7 games under .500, so their ability to actually beat these good teams is going to be pretty important. This may just be a situation where it's not really the Magic's time yet. There's nothing wrong with that. Getting playoff experience early can only help their young guys develop, but it shouldn't be a shock if this team is in the lottery this year.
It also wouldn't shock me if a healthy Magic team finishes as a top 5 defense. If they can get that offense to be league average, maybe they can sneak into that play in game. The point is to be patient with this group. Wins aren't as important as the development of their young guys.
Charlotte Hornets
2019-20 record: 23-42
Key Offseason Additions: Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball (rookie), Vernon Carey Jr (rookie)
Key Offseason Departures: Nicholas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Willy Hernangomez
Playoff Performance: Missed the playoffs
Listen, don't ask me to explain what the Hornets are doing shelling out a shit ton of money for Terry Rozier and then doubling down the next season by offering Gordon Hayward $120M. On some level I get it, they have to overpay to get guys to come to Charlotte. What do they need cap space for? If someone is willing to accept their gigantic bag of money, all the power to them. To me, this is a team that will be pretty fun to watch, but may not win a whole lot of games. So far this preseason they've been exciting at times, but ultimately lost. I feel like that's what we're going to get.
With a roster that is mostly the same, this is still a team that ranked 25th in defense. I'm not seeing too many additions to help there. Offensively they were 28th, and this is where we should see them make leaps. Adding Gordon Hayward if healthy will certainly help. Adding a pass first point guard in LaMelo Ball should help. Devonte Graham should have won the MIP last year and he's only going to get better. I could see this being a top 20 offense for sure if everyone stays healthy. PJ Washington and Miles Bridges showed a lot of promise as young guys last year too. Much like the Magic, this team is young.
But also like the Magic, they couldn't beat anyone good. Just 5-22 against teams .500 or better, they were also 5-25 in games they had a 10 point lead. If you saw both of their games against the Raptors this preseason, that doesn't look like it'll be any different. They are still blowing big leads. Maybe having someone like Hayward will help prevent that in the long run, but they had all the signs of a young team learning the NBA ropes last year.
Offensively, they need to improve pretty much everywhere. They ranked in the 34th percentile in terms of spot up shooting, the 24th percentile in P&R from the ball handler, the 3rd percentile in isolation, the 17th percentile off screens, I mean it's a bloodbath no matter where you look. I guess that's why they tossed the bag at Hayward. Even a marginal improvement should go a long way in at least making the Hornets competitive, but I don't think it's a stretch to say they'd be lucky to even play in the play-in game. I'm not sure how you could consider their ceiling to be any higher given the fact this is one of the worst teams in the league on both ends, with pretty much the same roster coming back.
A fun team to watch for sure. Their pinstripe jerseys are absolutely fantastic, but this is probably a high lottery team.
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Washington Wizards
2019-20 record: 25-47
Key Offseason Additions: Russell Westbrook Robin Lopez, Deni Avdija (rookie)
Key Offseason Departures: John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Admiral Schofield
Playoff Performance: Missed the playoffs
Welcome to one of the more intriguing teams in the Eastern Conference. You pretty much have to throw out everything we saw from this group last year, because now with Russell Westbrook in the mix everything changes. You could now make the case that Westbrook/Beal are one of the most talented duos in the entire conference. Bringing back the Latvian Laser is huge to help spread the floor for both of those guys to create and attack the rim. Their rookie Deni Avdija basically hasn't missed this preseason. There are guys like Thomas Bryant who showed real development last year.
We know the Wizards can score. That was the case even before Westbrook got here. For them though it all comes down to their defense. This team couldn't stop a nosebleed last year. They had the 29th ranked defense in the league for crying out loud. It didn't matter that they were throwing up 120 a night because they were giving up 135. For as talented as he is offensively, Bradley Beal is kind of a mess on the defensive end. Maybe he was just saving his legs because there was no John Wall. Well now that he has someone else to help offensively, I imagine he'll be a little better on the other end.
The thing is, we have no idea how it'll work. Will the Wizards take over the Magic's spot and be that 7-8 seed? Or will this new duo be such a problem that we see them compete for a 5-6 seed or even better. If healthy, this team has enough talent to avoid the play in game, but they are going to have to leap some pretty competitive teams to do it. The logical expectation is they take BKN's spot in 7th, but what will that mean for teams in the 4-6 spot last year? One of those teams is going to have to dip. Is it the Sixers (6th), the Heat (5th), Pacers (4th), Celts (3rd), or Raptors (2nd). The Wizards are no longer an automatic win on the schedule in my opinion. Not when you add a talent like Westbrook who is going to give full effort at all times. There will be no mailing it in this year.
Their style will have to change a little bit with Westbrook. They'll be more of a spread em out and isolate team I imagine. Considering they ranked in the 41st percentile in isolation last year I expect that to improve. But hey, a Westbrook/Beal/Bertans/Rui/Bryant starting five is certainly playoff caliber in the East. You have a good mix of elite talent, shooting, and promising bigs. As long as their second unit isn't a disaster, it could be the best season the Wizards have had in some time.
Usually, when you have to trade a franchise player like John Wall, it kickstarts a rebuild. The Wizards may have actually gotten better, which is a little crazy. Who knows if it'll work, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be wildly entertaining to find out.
Atlanta Hawks
2019-20 record: 20-47
Key Offseason Additions: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, Danilo Gallinari, Rajon Rondo, Oneyka Okongwu (rookie)
Key Offseason Departures: Allen Crabbe, Vince Carter, Alex Len, Dewayne Dedmon, Evan Turner, Jeff Teague
Playoff Performance: Missed the playoffs
You want to talk about a team that had a drastic makeover this offseason? Look no further than the Hawks. They said they are going for it and want to make the playoffs and boy did they back that up with some great moves. Adding Bogdanovic and Gallo are huge offensive upgrades. Bringing in Rondo to help develop Trae Young, especially defensively, is a great move. Kris Dunn when healthy is a legit backcourt defender.
For a team that ranked 25th offensively and 28th defensively, it's hard to argue that they didn't get a whole lot better. This isn't even factoring in the internal development of their young guys like John Collins, Cam Reddish, De'Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, and obviously Trae Young. We also can't forget about Clint Capela. Remember, the Hawks didn't get anything from Capela once they traded for him last year. You sprinkle Okongwu into the mix who everyone is calling the next Bam, there's a ton of reasons to be pumped about this year as a Hawks fan. They are going to be one of the best League Pass teams in the entire league. If they take the leap many expect based off who they added this offseason, why can't they compete for a playoff spot? At the very least make the play in game?
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While the offense improvement is nice, the key is what they can do defensively. Just 6-25 against .500 teams last year, the East did load up on talent so that's going to be an issue. The Hawks need to show they can actually stop someone if they are going to be serious about making the playoffs. They need to figure out what they are going to do when teams attack Trae Young whenever he's on the court. In terms of their rebuild process though, it's not to not be impressed with what this front office has done. Sure they'll probably never stop being clowned for trading the pick that became Luka, but this has been a pretty legit rebuild when you look at the entire picture.
As we know though, young teams don't really win in the NBA. Maybe the vets they brought in will help them get over the hump, but this is now a team with real expectations. We have no idea how the young guys will respond to that. What I do think we'll see is a much more competitive team that will be a bitch to play given their talent. Whether or not they can get over the hump and into the playoffs is the big question.