Jackie Bradley Jr. Is A Perfect Fit For The New Chicago Cubs
MLB Trade Rumors - Ian Happ provided both strong offense and some decently respectable (+1 Outs Above Average, -2 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.6 UZR/150) glovework as the Cubs’ regular center fielder in 2020, but Bradley obviously offers a lot more defensive value up the middle. Now that Kyle Schwarber has been non-tendered, Happ could easily be shifted over to left field to accommodate Bradley in center.
I promised myself I wouldn't emotionally reinvest myself in the Cubs until 2021 and turns out that was a stupid promise. I'm not going to call myself a liar but certainly wouldn't disagree with being a sucker. After Theo resigned and in the wake of the Schwarber non-Tender it seemed like we were about to go full rebuild and I just wasn't ready for it. I'm talking Miami Marlins Sell The Farm To Pay The Bank Debt kind of rebuild and suffice to say no fucking thanks. Not bringing back Jon Lester at $25m is one thing, but letting your everyday-above-average leftfielder walk for about $8m is embarrassing when you're a global juggernaut. All signs point to more embarrassment.
A movie for JBJ would be a pivot in the opposite direction while staying true to Theo's rebuild philosophy of building up assets for the trade deadline. Two birds with one stone kind of thing and as a guy who calls himself Two Bird I obviously like that. Let's talk about both facets.
Getting Better
On the one hand the Cubs (we) are not really embarrassing ourselves when we swap out Schwarber with JBJ. The rumored price is around $8-10m for 2 years so consider it a modest increase relative to #12. And staying on paper, JBJ is modestly yet objectively more productive over 162 when you consider the whole kitchen sink. So it's fair to say adding him or an equivalent player would make the team better because you can move Happ to left. The cumulative benefit to the defense would outweigh the potential impact to the lineup. It's more than a wash and gives the Cubs a better outfield.
More intriguing - it's a comparison of two players heading in opposite directions after 2020 with extremely similar price tags. Bradley is off his best OPS+ since 2016 while Schwarber was 10% below league average and 23% off his career average this past season. No fucking bueno even if it's just 60 games. At a time when outfield play is becoming ever important the Cubs could prioritize defense while getting a marketable upgrade in the lineup too. Again, at basically the same cost next year. If you're trying to be competitive, that's a good sign. But even better, you're positioned for a great trade in 2022.
Trade Assets
Theo did an awesome job getting 30+ year old veterans on short deals to overperform their career average, then flipping them for way more than they deserve at the trade deadline. They're on cheap deals relative to production. You platoon them and build up their numbers. Then you go to the Texas Rangers or someone other perennial .500 club in dire need of a consistent presence and you get some top pitching prospects. That's exactly what the Cubs need to be thinking about right now and JBJ fits the mix.
In year 1 you get a chance to play the odds and get lucky with a randomly good team. You can sneak into the playoffs and make a run on the high end. That's best case for 2021 and JBJ gets you there. Alternatively the team could be so bad they get into sell off mode at the deadline. Goodbye Rizzo, Darvish, Hendricks, etc. JBJ would be another name on that list this year or next depending on performance. That's worst case scenario for the team in the short-term but probably best case for the long-run. Again, JBJ works on both ends of the spectrum. It's low risk to make the team better now with low risk to get a return in 2022. That return could be a shitty reliever but it could also be 2 young arms.
The strategy is so good that I have no choice to get sucked back in on December 15th. If this report is true then Jed is doing the kind of shit he needs to be doing. And when you consider all those factors, it's a no brainer for JBJ to play for the Cubs. Call me biased but I'm sure he'd love it here.
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