This Stunning Statistical Breakdown Shows Tom Brady is Doing Worse Under Bruce Arians Than You Thought

Mark LoMoglio. Shutterstock Images.

By now we've all heard the rumors of a growing frustration in Tampa Bay. There's been a ton of smoke, but we don't know if there's fire. Sometimes smoke can come from just your kid using the toaster oven, too. When you've lost three out of your last four games and saved your worst performances of the season for prime time games, the situation will tend to give off a tension-y vibe, no matter who you are. 

What we do know is that Bruce Arians would not the first head coach Tom Brady has been rumored to have a "rift" with in his career. And that Brady is not the first quarterback Arians has reportedly been frustrated with. It's just that Brady has had just one other coach he's allegedly beefed with. And Arians has had a half dozen times as many, if not more, QBs he grew aggravated with. And while the rumors about Brady and Bill Belichick were at their peak, they went to two Super Bowls and won one. 

What is not in doubt, unless you believe that math is a lie, is that Brady's numbers seem to indicate Brady is doing what his predecessors have done under The Quarterback Whisperer: Seeing their play diminish. Like Bart Scott said a few days ago, Arians' system of allowing only post-snap reads and forcing his QBs to hold the ball is taking a toll. Like it did in Pittsburgh, when Ben Roethlisburger led the league in sacks over a five year stretch (cued up to the 2:47 mark):

The numbers, as compiled by the Tampa Bay Times, bares that out. And they're worse than I realized. 

With the assistance of Pro-Football-Reference.com, we’ve listed several of the more eyebrow-raising numbers involving Brady entering the regular season’s final quarter. The Bucs (7-5) currently own the No. 6 playoff seed in the NFC.

3 

Brady’s multi-interception games in the last four contests

4 

Total number of Brady multi-interception games from 2016-2019

7.6 

Brady’s intended air yards per pass attempt (whether complete or incomplete) in 2019

8.8 

Brady’s intended air yards per pass attempt in 2020, which is tied for third in the NFL

16 

Sacks taken by Brady. Only four quarterbacks who have started at least 10 games have taken fewer

37 

Times Brady was hit while passing during the 2019 season

44 

Times Brady has been hit while passing this year, which ranks third in the NFL

36.1 

Percentage of time the Bucs run on offense, which ranks 28th in the league

64.8 

Brady’s completion percentage, which ranks 24th among NFL quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts

86 

Play-action pass attempts by Brady, tied for 14th in the league

95

 “Bad throws” this season by Brady (per Pro Football Reference), which leads the NFL

95.1 

Brady’s quarterback rating, currently 15th in the NFL

To be clear, I'm not putting this on Brady. I see him the same as you do, and he's checking every box physically. He moves well. He can still unleash a tight spiral into small windows. He's still got the bone structure of a Greek god and the same impish twinkle in his eye he had in his early 30s. The only thing that's been off has been his decision making. And that is what happens when you're in a system that is all about the genius of the man who designed it and not about how to best utilize the talent he's been gifted. 

Brady has been by far the most successful quarterback in the history of the game while playing under three different coordinators. Because those coaches emphasized doing the things he does best. Presnap reads, identifying mismatches, exploiting weakness, making faster decisions than the defenders tasked with stopping him. They put their egos aside and - as their boss has always been so fond of saying - putting players in the best position to win. 

And the fact this is what the GOAT is doing with the most talented skill position depth chart in the league, as a matter of fact in recent memory, is just a further indictment of Arians' stubbornness. There are lies, damned lies and statistics. But these statistics are speaking the plain truth: Brady should've never signed on with this guy.