Don't Expect the Patriots to Make a Change at Quarterback
Now that we've had a couple of nights to shake off the hangover of one of the weirdest and most improbable Patriots wins of our lifetimes, a game in which they had the lowest passer rating for a game (23.6) since a 31-0 loss at Buffalo in Week 1 of 2003 - which historians refer to as The Lawyer Milloy Bowl - it's natural and expected for there to be a level of frustration with the passing offense.
The Pats are 29th in the league in passing. They've got six passing touchdowns through 11 games. The 42-yard strike Cam Newton threw to Damiere Byrd in the loss to Houston was just the second TD pass he's thrown since the Raiders game back in September. The team in that time has had two more, but one was by Jarrett Stidham in relief and the other was off the laser, rocket arm of Jakobi Meyers. Maybe the best all passing performance Newton has had all year was Week 2 against Seattle, with 397 yards. But now that we've seen the Seahawks setting records for passing defense awfulness (328.8 YPG, which is almost 30 yards more than the 2011 Packers' all time record) and last night they almost made Carson Wentz look respectable, we realize what Iron Sulfide that game was.
So it was just a matter of time before someone started to call for a change at quarterback. I've had friends getting an early jump on that for weeks. The first media guy to step forward was probably Greg Bedard of Boston Sports Journal (paywall):
That was unacceptable.
Or, at least it should be, if Bill Belichick truly believes what he preaches to his players about every decision he makes: Belichick does what's in the best interest of the team. ...
Newton was terrible on Sunday. ... Newton literally didn't do anything. He was 245 pounds of dead weight for this team against the Cardinals. ... I mean, seriously, how much worse can Stidham be?
Belichick was asked about Newton's 84-yard performance after the Cardinals game and pretty much dismissed it with a flick of the wrist. “We just kind of keep working to get better. I mean, he threw for 350 last week," he said. "The most important thing is we made the plays we needed to make to win.” The on his WEEI appearance yesterday afternoon added, "We’ve won three of our last four games," before going back to his factory settings of repeating over and over that everyone needs to do better.
Then earlier today in his press availability, the guy Newton apologized to seconded that emotion. Asked if he has faith in Newton as a passer he answered, "Absolutely. The passing game is a function of a lot of people doing things right. I know the quarterback is the centerpiece of throwing the football, but we don’t throw the ball well without everybody doing their job right and without putting the players in position to be successful. ... Passing the football well has never been one man’s job, and it will never be that way. So we’ve got to do a good job of executing as a group, as a unit, and I’ve got to do a good job of trying to put them in position to be able to do that.”
Meanwhile somewhere, Bruce Arians just slumped into a chair after feeling a great disturbance in the Force. Like millions of coaches taking responsibility for their team's shortcomings instead of blaming their quarterback, and then ... being silenced.
Look, I'm not about to put too much into these words from Belichick and McDaniels or take them as iron clad proof that they'd never consider letting the Jarrett Stidham Era begin now. If you've been paying attention to how things work in Foxboro, you'll notice a pattern of them not saying, "It's Tuesday but what the hell. We're friends so I'll clue you in on our future major personnel decisions now so you can get a jump on setting your Fantasy lineup."
But at the same time, I don't think they're just bullshitting either. Maybe it's just me talking from a position way outside the know on this one. But my gut tells me the support for Newton inside the organization is legit. At least as it pertains to the rest of this season. That, while they're not tanking by any means, the season isn't going to suddenly be saved by a dramatic personnel move or a radical change in their approach. Whatever their internal opinion of Stidham is, it's unlikely that he's going to take over, suddenly reinvent them into a conventional 2020s spread offense and start lighting it up with Meyers and Byrd and find some magic spell for turning N'Keal Harry into DK Metcalf.
For better or worse (and I make every effort to go years without relying on this lazy cliche but I need to break it out now), this offense is what it is. I think they looked at the assets that had at their disposal in the offseason and decided the best course was to be a power run team and physically overpower defenses designed to stop the Kansas Citys of the world. In war doctrine, it's referred to as an RMA, "Revolution in Military Affairs." As in, "Geez, that small British detachment of old WWI planes sank three Italian battleships in the port of Taranto. Maybe aircraft carriers are the way to go now," and so on. I've felt the Patriots have been trending this way since they drafted Sony Michel and Damien Harris in back to back years and then signed Newton. And with the roster as it stands, it's their best bet going forward in pursuit of a playoff berth, slim though their chances may be.
It's been ugly at times, no question. I mean, look at this:
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When you can't connect on passes to the outside and deep against a defense playing a youth football 4-4 front, how can you beat them on the ground? The best hope for this team to make a run at winning four or five games the rest of the way is to hope opponents try to defend the Pats this way and that he starts connecting. The way he did against Miami, the Jets and Baltimore. If he can't, the only other path to victory is to hope your defense and special teams step up like they did last week.
I think they respect the hell out of the job Newton has done coming in to a new situation in a complete clusterfudge of a year, taking on a leadership role, overcoming Covid and working his ass off from minute one for minimum wage. I don't know what the future holds and that's a discussion for another time. But barring injury, I don't see a scenario where he's not your starting QB right to the end.