Weeeeeek 11 and why the hell is the noon slate so overwhelming. But no, we're not complaining. Again, especially with the spike in correlation, let's be happy we have what we do. If your team is still playing be double grateful. Sorry SEC fans. (Eventually, these will just be on Barstool Bets so get used to checking over there when Friday rolls around.) I think I said this two weeks ago, but this week is again another slate that is going to expose teams. Whether it is as contenders or pretenders?…..we're about to find out. So, let's talk some football.
#13 Wisconsin @ Michigan, 7:30pm, (opened wisco -1, 51)
Questions: Is Michigan going to roll back over and defend itself or stay belly up? How will Wisconsin look after so much time off? Is Graham Mertz playing?
Matchup: Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the L6 games. Wisconsin is 10-2-1 ATS in the L13 meetings.
2019: Wisconsin won 35-14 @ home (wisco - 3.5, o45)
2018: Michigan won 38-13 @ home (mich -10, o47.5)
2017: Wisconsin won 24-10 @ home (wisco - 6.5, u42)
2016: Michigan won 14-7 @ home (wisco +12, u45)
Wisconsin (1-0): haven’t played since October 23rd due to covid issues on the team, they beat Illinois 45-7. They only allowed 87 passing yards vs. Illinois. Remember that before covid hit Wisconsin, they were in the talks as being the potentially second B1G team to make the CFB.
Covid: In the Big Ten, a player who tests positive has to be out for 21 days. From what I've seen Mertz’ positive test was on October 25th (as far as I can tell), 21 days after that is the 15th…the game is on the 14th. But people are still debating if he can play or not? I know reports say he has cleared covid testing, but 21 days is still 21 days? Chase Wolf is in the same boat. Will be up to a 4th stringer if both are out.
Spread: Are 1-6 ATS in their L7 games vs. a team with a losing record. Since 2017 are 10-2 ATS as an away favorite. Are 5-2 ATS in L7 games vs. unranked teams as a top 15 team.
Total: 6 of L7 games have gone over, over is 6-0 in L6 games as a favorite, 5-1 for the over. Are 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a losing record in the L7. Last 5 games after a rest have gone over.
SU: Paul Chryst is 17-2 SU as a road favorite, those 2 losses have come in the last 2 years
Michigan (1-2): off of a 38-21 loss to Indiana, and a 27-24 loss to Michigan State loss the week before. That was Michigan’s first loss to Indiana in 24 meetings. Games have been averaging 61 total points, with Michigan scoring 31.3 of them. Only had 13 rushing yards vs. Indiana. Jim Harbaugh’s seat has never been hotter; the Indiana game was a must win and look how that turned out. The defense, and mainly the secondary is a huge issue for Michigan, and they just lost Aidan Hutchinson, arguably their best defensive player, for the season due to injury.
Spread: Are 1-4 ATS in L5 games. After losing a game by 14+ when they were favored are 1-5 ATS in the next game.
Total: In their last 5 games are 1-4 ATS. 8-0 for the over in L8 games as a home underdog. Over is 9-2 in L11 games after a straight up loss. Over is 7-0-1 as a home underdog in the L8. After a SU loss, the over is 4-1 in L5. When an underdog by less than 7, the L5 games have gone under. After losing a game by 14+ when they were favored, the next 5 games all went over.
SU: Under Harbaugh are 1-3 SU as a home underdog, and 1-10 SU as an underdog. After losing a game by 14+ when they were favored, lost the next 6 SU.
I still don't think Graham Mertz is going to play, and we're likely not going to figure out either way until Saturday morning. If he plays, or even if Wolf does, it is Wisconsin's game. If he doesn't play it will be much closer. There isn't much of a read on how impressive it was for Wisconsin to hold Illinois to only 7 points. Since Minnesota, who is confirmed to not have a defense, only allowed 14. But Wisconsin to cover regardless, and likely the over.
#11 Oregon @ Washington State, 7:00pm, (opened Oregon -8, 61.5)
Matchups: Oregon won last year, ending a 4 year Washington State win streak. Wazzu has covered at least the last 10.
2019: Oregon won 37-35 @ home (Wazzu +14.5, o67.5)
2018: Wazzu won 34-20 @ home (Wazz -3, u70)
2017: Wazzu won 33-10 @ oregon (Wazzu -2, u59.5)
2016: Wazzu won 51-33 @ home (Wazzu +2.5, o74.5)
Oregon (1-0): coming off of a 35-14 win over Stanford where they shut them out in the middle 2 quarters. Can run and throw the ball equally. The last time they were a road favorite was vs. Arizona State, where they were upset 31-28. QB Tyler Shough showed that he is a dual threat and, more importantly, can take hits well. While he did have some bad decisions and an interception, it was his first start and let’s see how much he can clean it up and make adjustments for this weekend. They went 9-11 on 3rd downs. Had 2 turnovers and an iffy secondary, but all issues that can come with a first game. Are 117th nationally in rushing defense with allowing 6.35 ypp, and 90th in passing defense at 8.3 ypp.
Spread: is 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Total: Over is 6-1 in L7 games after a SU win, over is 5-0 after. When favored by 7+ the under is 7-2 in L9.
SU: Are 10-3 SU after winning a game by 18+. The last time they were a road favorite was vs. ASU where they were upset as a 14 point favorite.
Washington State (1-0): coming off of a 38-28 win over Oregon State. It was revealed after the Oregon State game that Wazzu was without 32 players. Coach Nick Rolovich refused to give an explanation. Can run and throw the ball equally. True freshman Jayden de Laura had a solid first outing, showing he could run too. Only had 4 players with receptions, and only 3 had rushing yards. It seems that Oregon State lost the game than Washington State won it. OSU didn’t apply much pressure on the QB and struggled on 3rd down conversions. Oregon State is last in FBS in rushing defense in ypp, and Wazzu is first in rushing offense ypp. Just not sure how impressive last week’s win was yet.
Spread: Are 1-6 ATS in L7 games after a SU win. Are 1-5 ATS vs. a ranked team in their L6. In 2019 were 3-6 ATS in Pac 12 games, 4-9 ATS overall, 1-3 ATS vs. ranked opponents, and 1-5 ATS after a win.
Total: Over is 4-0 in L4 games after a ATS win, and over is 5-1 in L6 Pac 12 games. After scoring under 35 points and still won, the over is 8-1 in their next game. When playing a ranked team at home the L6 have gone under. Since 2019 are 7-3 for the over vs. Pac 12 teams, and 4-2 for the over after a win.
SU: has lost the L4 games vs. a ranked team.
Defenses were not impressive last week; neither Oregon State or Stanford did anything great on offense to test either of them. Jayden de Laura was fine for a first outing, but remember how bad Maryland's Taulia looked in his first game and how far he's come already? So too soon to judge him quite yet. But overall too soon to really tell what either team's ceiling is. So I'm going with Oregon to cover just due to good recruiting, coaches that have been with the program and have shown they know how to compete.
#2 Notre Dame @ Boston College, 3:30pm, (opened ND -13, 50.5)
Questions: Do you believe in the post big game hump? How much did BC look over Syracuse last week to ND this week? Can BC repeat how they ran with Clemson?
Matchup: Notre Dame has won the last 7, BC hasn’t won since 2008. Under is 8-1 is the L9 meetings. This is BC’s Red Bandana game.
2019: ND won 40-7 @ home (ND -20.5, u65.5)
2017: ND won 49-20 @ BC (ND -14, o53)
2015: ND won 19-16 @ boston (BC+ 14.5, u42)
2012: ND won 21-6 @ BC (BC +20, u49)
Notre Dame (7-0) is coming off of a 47-40 2OT win over Clemson, and a 31-13 win over Georgia Tech the week before. Games have been averaging 51.2 total points, with ND scoring 36.6 of them. Are split between passing and rushing the ball. They’re great at stopping the run game, they average only allowing 85.1 rushing yards per game. They just took down #1 Clemson. Yes it was without Trevor, and a significant amount of players on defense, but still an impressive feat nonetheless.
Spread: Are 4-0 ATS in L4 games vs. teams with a winning record. Are 2-4 ATS vs. unranked teams this year. Are 3-1 ATS as away favorites in their L4. After a ranked team plays Clemson, they are 2-10-1 ATS in their next game, in the L13.
Total: When playing an unranked team the under is 9-2-2. This season, after a team beats a top 10 team, in their next game the over is 18-4-2.
SU: when favored between 1 and 2 TDS have won the last 13. Has won the L30 games vs. an unranked team. This season, after a team beats a top 10 team, they are 8-16 SU in their next game.
Boston College (5-3): is coming off of a 16-13 win over Syracuse, and a 34-28 loss to Clemson the week before. Games have been averaging 50.7 total points with BC scoring 26.1 of them. Are a heavy throwing team with averaging only 106.6 rushing yards per game. Yes the Syracuse win wasn’t pretty, but that is likely from the lull after a big game, or they were looking ahead to ND, if not both. This is a revenge game for QB Phil Jurkovec (ND transfer). With the exception of the VT loss, they hung around more than expected vs. UNC and Clemson.
Spread: Are 5-2 ATS vs. ACC teams this year. Are 5-0 ATS in L5 games as a home underdog, and 5-1 ATS in L6 games after an ATS loss. Are 5-1 ATS after an ATS loss in the L6.
Total: When an underdog, the under is 6-2 as an underdog in the L8. In the L5 games vs. a ranked team, the under is 4-1.
SU: Have lost the L19 games vs. a ranked team.
I know I know I knowwwww that taking ND to cover is the easy play here. But I'm not doing it, I believe in the post big game slump, and I believe in Jeff Hafley. I think he has been one of the best new hires of this season, and I absolutely love the cover photo for this blog. It's also the Red Bandana game for BC. I'm doing it and you can't stop me. This isn't going to be an easy game for Notre Dame.
#9 Miami @ Virginia Tech, 12:00pm, (opened VT -2, 62)
Matchup: The favorite has won and covered in 5 out of the last 6. In the past two years, when unranked teams are favored over ranked teams, the unranked team is 14-2 SU and 10-5-1 ATS.
2019: VT won 42-35 @ away (VT +14, o46.5)
2018: UM won 38-14 @ away (UM -6.5, u53)
2017: UM won 28-10 @ home (UM -2.5, u49.5)
2016: VT won 37-16 @ home (VT -4.5, o52.5)
Miami (6-1): is coming off of a close Friday night 44-41 win over NC State, a bye week, and a 19-14 win over Virginia the week before. Games have been averaging a total of 59.3 points per game with Miami scoring 34.4 of them. QB D’Eriq King is coming off of his best game yet with 430 yards, 75.6% completion, 5 TDs, and 105 rushing yards after averaging only 50.2 rushing per game.
Spread: Since 2019, are 3-1 ATS as the underdog and 3-5 ATS as the away team. When ranked in the top 15, are 1-1-8 ATS in L10. As a ranked team playing an unranked team are 1-4-1 ATS in their L6.
Total: Are 4-2 for the over this season. Since 2019, the over is 7-4 after a win and over is 8-5-1 vs. ACC teams. As a road underdog, the L5 games have been under. On the road, the under is 8-1 in the L9. When an underdog by 4 or less, the under is 9-1 in L10.
SU: As a ranked team playing an unranked team, have won the L4.
Virginia Tech (4-3): is coming off of a 38-35 loss to #25 Liberty, and a 42-35 win over Louisville the week before. Worth noting how VT lost to Liberty last week; VT blocked a FG and returned it for a TD, but Fuente had called a time out so it got called back and then Liberty hit the 51 yard FG the second time. So, people are not happy with Fuente, at all. Games have been averaging a total of 68.9 points per game with VT scoring 37.3 of them. Throw and run the ball but a heavy rushing team. A big key to this game is RB Khalil Herbert, he leads the team with 803 rushing yards, and didn’t play vs. Liberty due to what seems to be a hamstring injury, and is questionable (as of Tuesday) for this weekend. They have been struggling to contain opponents’ run game, allowing 202.9 average rushing yards.
Spread: Since 2019, are 3-5 ATS as a home favorite, and 4-2 ATS after a loss. Since 2018, they are 7-13 ATS as a favorite. After losing a game when favored by 14+ are 6-1 ATS in the L7 games. Are 5-2 ATS after a SU loss in the L7. Are 0-6 ATS in L6 games when favored by 3 or less.
Total: Are 5-2 for the over this season. Since 2019, as a home favorite, the over is 3-5. Over is 4-0-2 when favored by 3 or less, in L6 games.
SU: Since 2019 are 1-3 SU vs. ranked teams. After losing a game when favored by 14+, are 7-0 in their next game. Are 1-5 SU vs. a ranked team in the L6, and lost the last 7 when the opponent was ranked 15+. Are 6-1 SU after a loss in the L7. Have lost the last 6 games when favored by 3 or less.
I'm following Vegas' lead and like VT to cover. The underlined stat above shows they know a thing or two. Though the ironic thing is that the last time the ranked team, as an underdog, beat the unranked team, was last week when VT lost to Liberty. Miami struggled last week vs. NC State who is just not that great. In Vegas we trust.
#23 Northwestern @ Purdue, 7:30pm (opened Northwestern -1, 49.5)
Matchup: Purdue won last year, ending Northwestern’s 5 game winning streak.
2019: Purdue won 24-22 @ NW (PU +1, o39)
2018: NW won 31-27 @ PU (PU -1, o51.5)
2017: NW won 23-13 @ NW (NW -6, u48.5)
2016: NW won 45-17 @ PU (NW -13, o58)
Northwestern (3-0) coming off of a 21-13 win over Nebraska, and a 21-20 win over Iowa the week before. Games have been averaging 40.3 total points per game with Northwestern scoring 28.3 of them. Can throw well but favor rushing. Northwestern hasn’t allowed a point in the second half of a game this season yet. (Maybe consider live betting Purdue's team total?) They have the 5th best pass defense efficiency.
Spread: Are 4-0 ATS in L4 games. On the road, are 4-1 ATS in L5.
Total: L4 games have gone under. Since 2019, the under is 11-4. As the road team, the L9 games have gone under, but as a road favorite, the over is 4-1 in L5.
SU: won the L4 games as a road favorite. Are 4-1 SU in L5 games when favored by 4 or less.
Purdue (2-0) is coming off of a bye week (supposed to play Wisconsin), a 31-24 win over Illinois, and a 24-20 win over Iowa the week before. Games have been averaging 49.5 total points, with Purdue scoring 27.5 of them. Are a pass heavy team, are averaging only 94.5 rushing yards per game. Aidan O’Connell is not a running QB, he is -40 yards on the season. They only have one RB, he has 231 yards, next leading rusher has 8 yards. Has the 10th best receiver with David Bell, who is averaging 121.5 ypg. Seems unlikely we will see Rondale Moore this season.
Spread: Are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games. Are 4-1 ATS in L5 home games, and 7-2 ATS as a home underdog in L9. Are 5-1 ATS after a bye week. Have covered the L7 games when an underdog. Are 6-1 ATS vs. ranked teams in L7.
Total: Both games have gone under this year. Under is 6-3 vs. ranked teams in their L9 games.
There is only one thing in this game that I feel fairly confident in; Northwestern's defense. They're no joke, and make amazing adjustments at half time. Add Purdue to the growing list in the Big Ten of teams that you just have absolutely no idea about. Just can't get a read on them on either end. I like the under too at 50.5 (as of Thursday afternoon), but don't want it to get that much lower. So Northwestern and the under.
Remember, if you do decide to bet on these games, please do so responsibly.