Katie Stats' Games of the Week
Josh Morgan. Shutterstock Images.Week 10. All P5 conferences are playing, took some time to get here but we made it. I don't want to hear any "it's the Pac 12, who cares." A few months ago we thought we weren't getting any college football at all, so we will take what we can get. Even the hot mess that is MACtion. The Pac 12 is even playing a 9:00am local time game to get in the 12pm window so we can watch them and not stay up until 1:00am. So no, we won't be saying who cares in this household. Otherwise we have some good matches, and no, we will not be talking about what is happening with the Tar Heels. Also remember that eventually, these will just be on Barstool Bets so get used to checking over there when Friday rolls around. But we're here, so, lets's talk some football.
ASU @ #20 USC, 12pm (9am local), opened USC -7.5, 59.5.
Matchup: The last 3 have gone over. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in L6 meetings. Huge QB battle. This is a very early game for both teams, and will likely go to whoever’s HC gets their team rallied up first.
2019: USC won 31-26 @ ASU (USC -4.5, o54.5)
2018: ASU won 38-35 @ USC (ASU +3, o52.5)
2017: USC won 48-17 @ ASU (USC -5.5, o58.5)
2016: USC won 41-20 @ home (USC -9, u63)
Arizona State: Last year went 8-5, and 4-5 in conference play, finishing tied for 3rd in the South. Eight of their games last year were decided by 7 or less points, including an upset win over #6 Oregon 31-28. The player to watch here is sophomore QB Jayden Daniels, who finished with 2,943 yards, 17 TDs, 2 INTs, and 355 rushing yards as a true freshman last year. It is pretty clear that HC Herm Edwards knows the offense revolves around Daniels. The program loses its top receiver and rusher who both had over 1,000 yards, with a sharp falloff on the next man up. The top returning RB had 50 yards last year. While playmaker receiver Frank Darby is back, there will need to be other skill position players stepping up to fill in the gaps. Edwards brought in a new OC so there's hope that the rushing offense that finished 115th last year will not repeat as such. Two freshmen made the start at OL last year, and they've brought in 2 highly regarded RBs and "the best-regarded four-man WR recruiting class in program history." So maybe they could have an immediate impact? In the preseason media poll they were voted to finish second in the South behind USC. Look for them to try to have bigger wins, and catch better teams off guard.
Spread: Are 6-2 ATS in L8 as an underdog. Are 4-1 ATS in L5 as a road underdog. Are 6-3 ATS in L9 vs. ranked teams. Last year were 3-5-1 ATS vs. Pac 12 teams
Total: L5 games as a road underdog have gone under. When an underdog the under is 9-3 in the L12. When a road underdog, under is 6-1 in the L7. Since 2017, under is 10-3 in L13 when playing ranked teams.
SU: Last year were 3-1 SU vs. ranked teams.
USC: Biggest story line out of USC this year is Clay Helton and his scalding hot seat. He has gone 13-12 in the last two seasons, which was a big hit after an 11-3 season in 2017. It seems it is a Pac title game, if not win, or bust for Helton. Last year USC went 8-5, and 7-2 in conference play, which put them in 2nd in the South. Last year OC Graham Harrell came in and brought the air raid with him; they finished 6th nationally in passing yards. True freshman QB Kedon Slovis returns after throwing for 3,502 yards at 72% completion rate, 30 TDs, and 9 INTs. USC losses one of its 1000+ yard receivers, but retains the second one as well as the three behind him. As expected with an air raid, rushing wasn't a strong suit, but they do return all 4 members of the committee. The defense is the question this year, with new DC Todd Orlando coming from Texas, all eyes will be on him to see what he can do with a talented but struggling roster. All of the secondary's starters are back, but Orlando will have to rework the front line and linebackers. The offense seems ready to compete for a Pac 12 title, but will the defense hold them back?
Spread: Are 4-1 ATS in L5 home games. In their L4 season openers are 0-4 ATS.
Total: Their L6 games have gone over. Last 5 games as favorites have gone over. Last 5 games vs. Pac 12 teams have gone over. In their L4 season openers the over is 4-0. In 2019, at home they were 4-1-1 for the over.
SU: Are 17-0 SU when at home and favored by 7+.
Opinion: I'll be very upfront, I'm learning about the Pac 12 on the fly right now. I have no prior knowledge besides watching the occasionally bored at the bar at 1:00am moments. Yes I have still learned a lot by listening, reading, and comparing stats, but that can only take you so far without watching their season last year. But hey, guess that means I have no bias right? Just trying to keep you all informed of where I'm coming from so you can do with that information as you will. That said; the game. It seems to be the all too soon game for the South Division title. Due to this game being played at 9:00am local time, I think this game is going to be decided a lot by which team is able wake up first and which team leading QB is going to have a more impressive day. ASU's Jayden Daniels and USC's Kedon Slovis both excelled as true freshmen and are likely going to each have huge steps up this year. Putting kickoff time and it being week 1 for both teams, I still think that USC has the edge with it being a home game, having a more talented roster, and a coach that is fighting for his job so he'll be ready to pull out any tools to win. Arizona State, being the upwards trending team in the South does have the chance to surprise USC, and can give them a run for their money. I still think that USC wins but Arizona will likely cover.
Stanford @ #12 Oregon, 7:30pm, opened Oregon -9, 52.5.
Matchup: In the last 4 the favorite has won and covered. Over is 6-1 in L7 meetings in Oregon.
2019: Oregon won 21-6 @ Stanford (OU -12.5, u55.5)
2018: Stanford won 38-31 @ Oregon (Stan -3, o59)
2017: Stanford won 49-7 @ home (Stan -9.5. u56.5)
2016: Stanford won 52-27 @ Oregon (Stan -3, o58.5)
Stanford: Last year Stanford went 4-8, losing their last 4 games, 3-6 in conference play, and finished tied for last in the North. Coming off of 9 win seasons in 2017 and 2018, their 4-8 finish in 2019 was a huge slap in the face and raised questions of if the program is in decline. Stanford was hit badly with the transfer portal in the offseason due partially to Stanford's grad schools being hard to get into and maybe a loss of faith in the team? They finished 11th in the Pac-12 and 123th nationally in their rushing offense, and lost their top rusher who had 840 yards, the next man up had 227. So look for rushing to be a weakness for the team, and a needed place for a playmaker to appear. Most of the secondary is returning, but their star CB, Paulson Adebo opted out. For the defense the concern is on the front line and reloading there. Last year the defense finished 121th nationally in passing defense. On the plus side they do return an experienced quarterback in Davis Mills and 3 of their 4 top receivers. In the end, they need to stay healthy, last year they were injury ridden and couldn't find a groove. They want to prove that last year's 4-8 season was just a blip and they can bounce back.
Spread: didn’t cover the last 4 games last season. In 2019 they were 3-9 ATS in all games, 2-7 ATS in conference games, 1-3 ATS vs. ranked teams, and 0-3 ATS as away underdogs. 1-5 ATS as a road underdog. Are 1-4 ATS when an underdog by more than a TD. 0-5 ATS on the road in L5.
Total: As a road underdog have hit the last 6 overs. Are 11-2 for the over as an underdog in L13. 4-1 for the over in L5 games.
SU: As a road underdog, have lost the last 6. Are 1-5 SU when an underdog by more than a TD.
Oregon: Last year Oregon went 12-2, 8-1 in conference play, and finished atop the Pac-12 and #5 nationally. That one conference loss came from an unranked Arizona State. The biggest thing to know about this team is that while having their top rushers and receivers back, they have to replace their QB, entire OL and the bulk of their secondary. They have 2 options at QB, one is Tyler Shough who got in for 144 yards and 3 TDs last year and seems to be the favorite for the job. The second is Boston College grad transfer Anthony Brown who has 30+ games and 6 starts under his belt despite 2 ACL tears. They have a new OC, Joe Moorhead who was Mississippi State's HC for the last 2 years. People seem to expect Oregon to be able to reload well, with some very experienced recruits and underclassmen, but I think the task is a bit too high to come out of the gate top speed. They'll still likely be very good, just might take a few games to click fully. Stars are good, but is experience more important?
Spread: Since 2018, as a home favorite is 4-8 ATS, 5-10 ATS with equal rest (you can decide if this qualifies as such, and 5-9 ATS at home.
Total: Are on a 5-1 for the under streak at home. In their L8 games, the over is 6-2.
SU: Won the last 10 at home, and 18 when a home favorite.
Opinion: If you're here just looking at this game, scroll up to see what I said about my previous knowledge on the Pac 12 to give some context to what I'm about to say. Oregon is clearly the favorite to make the CFP out of the Pac 12, but if they can do so is another debate altogether. They do have to replace their QB, OL and a bunch in the secondary, but they have some very skilled recruits and underclassmen to fill those shoes. So I can imagine that they might be a bit slow out of the game with their first in game experience, but give them a few drives and they'll likely be off. As many questions as there is about Oregon's potential, there are so many more about Stanford's program. Stanford is shit show. They lost a lot of players to the transfer portal in the offseason, and had just an overall rough season last year. No one can solidly say what the hell is going to come out of Stanford this year, save maybe a beat reporter, and even if then. The highlight for them is a returning QB and solid amount of receivers, but that seems to be it. This is a perfect tune up game for Oregon to let their guys get game experience. This could get very ugly for Stanford and turn into a blowout.
#23 Michigan @ #13 Indiana, 12:00pm, opened Michigan -3.5, 55.5.
Questions: How much can Michigan fix their secondary and DL in one week? Can Indiana get their run game back intact? How high is Indiana’s ceiling? How screwed is Harbaugh if he losses this game, and does he know it?
Matchup: Michigan has won the last 24. Indiana’s last win was in 1987. Michigan’s weak secondary vs. Indiana’s talented receivers.
2019: Michigan won 39-14 @ IU (UM -9.5, u54)
2018: Michigan won 31-20 @ home (IU +28, u53.5)
2017: Michigan won 27-20 @ IU (push, o44)
2016: Michigan won 20-10 @ home ( IU +24.5, u51)
Michigan (1-1) coming off of a 27-24 loss to Michigan State, and a 49-24 win over Minnesota the week prior. Can run and throw the ball. Went from looking great against Minnesota to being upset by a 3 TD underdog Michigan State. The secondary was a huge issue last weekend, they allowed completions of 30, 31, 40, 50 and 53 yards. The defensive line didn’t have any sacks vs. MSU (had 5 vs. Minnesota) and allowed Lombardi time to do what he wanted. Additionally the offensive line needed to give Milton more time and room to make accurate and smart plays. He is still young, has all the talent, but needs time to work.
Spread: Are 2-6 after not covering in the previous games. Before the MSU game, had covered the last 4 as a favorite. Is 4-0 ATS in L4 road games.
Total: Vs. top 15 teams are 6-2 for the over in their L8. Are 5-1 for the over in L6 as road favorites.
SU: are 5-2 SU in L7 after not covering in the previous game. Are 10-2 SU in L12 as a road favorite. Under Harbaugh, are 6-14 SU vs. top 15 teams, and 2-6 in the L8.
Indiana (2-0) is coming off of a 37-21 win over Rutgers and a 36-35 overtime win over Penn State the week prior. Are a heavy throwing team, are averaging 75.0 rushing yards per game. Penix and his receivers are starting to light up the Big Ten. Rutgers did successfully limit their run game last week, but Indiana just adjusted and kept going. Defense combined for causing 3 turnovers, 4 sacks, and 8 TFL.
Spread: Have covered both games this year. Are 2-7-1 ATS as a home underdog. After a win are 7-2 ATS after a win and 7-4 ATS vs. B1G teams since 2019.
Total: Both games have gone over this season. Since 2017 are 9-1 for the over as a home underdog and 11-3 (in 2019 were 5-0) for the over vs. ranked teams, and 20-9 for the over vs. B1G teams. After winning a game by 14+, the over is 5-0-1 in the L6.
SU: The Penn State win broke an 11 game losing streak as a home underdog.
Opinion: These two teams are causing havoc in the Big Ten, and I have no idea what to expect. If Michigan can fix their issues on defense then they'll be fine. But can they fix all that mess in one week? Think there will be some improvement but not enough. All of the momentum is on Indiana, they're 2-0 with the upset over Penn State two weeks ago, whereas Michigan just lost to rival Michigan State when they were 3 score favorites. Michigan hasn't lost to Indiana in the last 24 meetings; safe to say that a loss here, especially after last weekend, Harbaugh's time at Michigan will be speeding to an end. So this is another do or die time for Harbaugh, does he nut up or roll over helpless? I think that Penix and his receivers are more ready for this game than Michigan's defense is. I'm not sold on Indiana's defense so I am inclined to say that this could trend towards a shootout. Tom Allen has his team rolling right now and is prepared to host the struggling Wolverines and beat them.
#8 Florida vs. #5 Georgia (at Jacksonville, FL), 3:30pm, opened UGA -5.5, 52.5.
Questions: Which is stronger, Florida’s offense or Georgia’s defense? How much are you worried about Georgia only scoring 14 last week? Do you have faith in Georgia’s depth on defense? Will Florida have more momentum since they’re coming from a heated game/brawl? Or does that show they lack the discipline to play well against top teams?
Matchup: Georgia has one the last 3 with decreasing margins. In the last 5 meetings the favorite has won and covered. The #10 scoring offense (Florida) vs. the #12 scoring defense (Georgia).
2019: Georgia won 24-17 (UGA -6.5, u47.5)
2018: Georgia won 36-17 (UGA -7, o52.5)
2017: Georgia won 42-7 (UGA -13, o43.5)
2016: Florida won 24-10 (UF -6.5, u43)
Florida (3-1) coming off a 41-17 win over Mizzou with a full brawl at half time, a 21 day hiatus due to COVID breakouts, and a 41-38 loss to #21 Texas A&M the week prior. Games have been averaging 71.3 total points per game, with Florida scoring 42 of them. Is a heavy passing team but still can run the ball. Is leading the nation with 100% red zone scoring rate.
COVID/Injury: were without 3 key DBs, Shawn Davis, Donovan Stiner, Marco Wilson last week vs. Mizzou. It is still unsure if they are back for this weekend.
Spread: Under Mullen is 1-4 ATS at a neutral site, 5-2 ATS as an underdog, and all SEC games are 12-8 ATS.
Total: Before the Mizzou game, all games have gone over, so 3-1 for the over. Under Mullen are 5-3-1 for the over vs. ranked teams. Last year were 1-2 for the over when at a neutral site. Vs. top 5 teams, the last 5 have gone over.
Georgia (4-1) coming off of a 14-3 win over Kentucky, a bye week, and a 41-24 loss to Alabama the week prior. Games have been averaging 45.4 total points per game with Georgia scoring 29.2 of them. Is closely split between running and throwing the ball but leads in passing it. The defense is averaging only allowing 80.0 rushing yards per game. Their performance vs. Kentucky put a lot of confidence in the defense, but many concerns about the offense. They only scored 1 TD per half, and were held scoreless for the other two.
Injuries: DL Julian Rochester and All-America safety Richard LeCounte are confirmed out. TBD: DL Jordan Davis and WR George Pickens. Expected to play: S Lewis Cine and LB Quay Walker. Read: defense’s depth is getting tested.
Spread: When favored by less a TD are 9-4 ATS under Kirby. Are 7-2-1 ATS as a favorite. Are 9-2 ATS at a neutral site.
Total: When at a neutral site, the last 4 have gone under. Are 10-2 for the under as a favorite. Vs. top 10 teams are 5-1 for the over, that 1 under is the most recent vs. Alabama.
SU: Under Kirby are 10-3 SU when a favorite by less than a TD. Have won their last 11 games as a favorite.
Opinion: I flip flop every day on this. Numbers and history say Georgia for sure, but those Georgia teams didn't have Stetson Bennett on them. After last week's game vs. Kentucky, and the 2nd half shutout by Alabama, I'm so concerned for Stetson and the offense. Yes the defense looked very good despite missing some key players, but it was playing Kentucky's offense, so how much can you read into that? Florida on the other hand just had a wild game vs. Mizzou with that half time brawl. I know this isn't the disciplined answer, but I look at that and I see a fired up team that's ready to go to war. Yes it shows that they're not the most disciplined for sure, but this team is ready to fight, even after being held off of the field for so long due to COVID. A big key for this game would be to wait until the day of or even a few hours before to bet on it because news of players missing due to injury or COVID could sway this game. You never know, Kirby could announce a new QB1 for Saturday. Is Florida's defense bad enough to let Stetson get rolling? Don't really think so, they figured their shit out in the second half vs. Mizzou last week. So do you look at the history and trends or do you look at right now? Right now I'm leaning towards Florida, I liked them to win the East in the beginning of the season. If the Kyle Show looks similar to how it did earlier in the season then we're about to see Georgia's defense struggle. So yes, as of 3:02pm on Thursday, I think Florida wins. Check in with me on Saturday, to see if I feel the same way. As for the total? If Georgia's in control it's a hard under, if Florida is in control it's a hard over.
#1 Clemson @ #4 Notre Dame, 7:30pm, opened (as of 11/1/2020) Clem -3, 50.5.
Questions: Can Clemson eliminate their defensive issues from the first half vs. BC? Will we see a step up in Uiagalelei’s performance now that he has started a game, and if so how much? Clemson beat GT 73-7 where Notre Dame beat then 31-13 last week; does this matter to you? Is this Notre Dame’s first test of the season, or have they been tested yet?
Matchuhp: Clemson has won the three most recent meetings. (The only 2 of them have been this century. Both teams have averaged allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game; Clemson at 99.9 and ND at 93.7. ND defense has the slight edge at averaging 267.2 yards per game where Clemson is at 274.7; still close between the two. The #2 scoring offense, Clemson, vs. the #4 scoring defense, Notre Dame. Clemson hasn’t beaten a top 5 team on the road under Dabo (2 games, but did cover both), and this is the first time they’re favored.
2018: Clemson won 30-3 @ neutral (Clem -10.5, u58)
2015: Clemson won 24-22 @ home (ND +3, u48.5)
Clemson (7-0) coming off of a weird 34-28 win over Boston College, and 47-21 win over Syracuse the week before. Games have been averaging 61.7 total points per game with Clemson scoring 46.1 of them. Last week was the program’s largest comeback at home (18 points) since 1966, and shut out BC in the second half. Looking at the second half shut out, it’s clear that Venables knows exactly what went wrong in the first half and fixed it during half time. Trevor isn’t playing but will be traveling and coaching Uiagalelei on the sideline. The issue last week was not Uiagalelei minus small errors, it was mainly on the defense and how they couldn’t get BC’s offense off of the field. Uiagalelei was 73.2% for 342 yards, 2 TDs, 25 rushing yards and a rushing TD.
Injury Report: Key players confirmed out: Trevor Lawrence, LB James Skalski (missed BC), DL Xavier Thomas (out 1st half due to targeting), DT Tyler Davis, and LB Mike Jones Jr.
Spread: Are 3-1 ATS when favored by a TD or less in the L4 meetings. Is 11-2 ATS in L13 as a road favorite, and 12-3 ATS in L15 on the road.
Total: The last 3 games have gone over. Are 6-2 in L8 for the under as away favorites. Is 6-1 in L7 for the under vs. top 10 teams.
SU: Have won the last 8 when favored by a TD or less. Have won the last 14 when a road favorite.
Notre Dame (6-0) coming off of a 31-13 win over Georgia Tech, and a 45-3 win over Pitt the week before. Games have been averaging 45.1 total points per game with ND scoring 34.8 of them. This is the 7th time under HC Brian Kelly that Notre Dame is a home underdog. Last week held Georgia Tech to 88 rushing yards. Defense has been great on 3rd down conversions; were 10 for 15 last week, and have had 21 conversions in the last 2 games which is the best streak under Kelly. In the red zone they are only scoring a TD 57.58% of the time, leaving much to be desired.
Spread: Has covered the last 3 times as a home underdog. Is 1-4 ATS for the year vs. ACC teams. Since 2019, are 10-4 ATS after a win, 3-1 ATS vs. ranked teams,
Total: Has gone under is 5-1 in the L6 as a home underdog.
SU: Has won the last 3 times as a home underdog. Is on a run of 1-7 SU vs. top 10 teams, and Brian Kelly at Notre Dame is 0-5 SU vs. top 5 teams.
Opinion: If you follow me on Twitter or listen to Unnecessary Roughness (if you don't start listening), you know I've been adamant about Clemson beating Notre Dame since about week 2 of the season. I'm sorry but besides the Pitt game, see I'll admit it, what has Notre Dame done that has impressed you besides just be undefeated. Not saying they're bad, just not deserving of their #4 ranked. Said the same thing about UNC when they were in the top 10 so don't come at me for being biased. The missing players on Clemson's defense does worry me a bit yes, but I think that Venables saw what their issues were first half vs. BC, fixed them and shut out in the second half. Now they have an entire week of practice to nitpick and actually get Uiagalelei reps in practice, not just a walk through. I think for sure Notre Dame keeps it interesting and don't think Clemson wins by more than a touchdown, 11 at the most. I just don't get the Notre Dame hype train.
If you do chose to bet on these games, then please do so responsibly.