We're already to week 9… the leaves are rustling… we're a month from Thanksgiving. Time flies and things are starting to heat up. The Big Ten started with a fuckin thump with Indiana beating Penn State, Rutgers might be good and Michigan State and Maryland are awful. Plus Ohio State may score 50 points a game. Let's jump in to some betting nuggets to get you ready for another week in college football.
Interesting game Friday night on the West Coast as Hawaii heads up to frigid Laramie to face off against Wyoming. Game time temps will be in mid 30's. Wyoming has seemed at least through one game to have changed their stripes. Over the years they've been a plodding offense led by the run with shotty QB play since Josh Allen and a strong defense. In game 1 against Nevada, the game turned into an overtime shootout where Wyoming was down big and came back only to lose. The passing defense struggled against big plays and now they face another good offense from Hawaii. QB Chevan Cordeiro can wing it with a plethora of wideouts. They are off a big night offensively at Fresno where they had two 100+ yard rushers and two 80+ yards receivers. This one could quickly turn into a shootout with two undervalued offenses and two overvalued defenses. Early bettors have pushed this total up two points.
As I've talked on here ad nauseam… can BYU cover another number? This are off a destruction of Texas State, and this week they host another bad team in Western Kentucky in Provo. Of the college football teams that have played 5 or more games they currently sit 5th in scoring defense allowing just 14 points per game. The great thing also about them is not only are they shutdown defensively but they have a top 10 offense nationally. Averaging 45 points per game, 353 passing yards a game and QB Zach Wilson sports a near 80 percent completion percentage, the Cougars are flying high. Western Kentucky has yet to score more than 20 points a game and were completely shut down by another good defensive team in Marshall. Last week they needed a 4th quarter TD to beat FCS Chattanooga. The Hilltoppers are in trouble this weekend plus keep in mind, BYU is 5-1 against the spread. This has all the makings of a 45-7 type of game.
PSA: Maryland is fucking atrocious folks…
It's gonna be a long season in College Park. Sorry to Josh the camera guy. I really just wanted to post and show all of you how bad Maryland looks to be. The issue this week is Minnesota has some issues of their own with multiple players out because of COVID. I'd look to isolate Minnesota maybe offensively here with a team total possibly. They do at least have Morgan, Ibrahim and Bateman. But they might be a stay away until they are fully healthy.
Arkansas is back off a bye week and 4-0 against the spread, all four they were an underdog. This week, they head to Kyle Field as 12.5 point doggies to A&M. Both teams lauded the bye week to get some players healthy and back practicing. The Razorbacks have been really solid defensively and have shut down some good offenses including holding Ole Miss to just 21 points. The goal for them is to fall back on the defense and on offense run the ball which opens up the pass and limit turnovers. QB Felipe Franks has turned into a solid signal caller for them and the energy has been good for them. They get another good offense this week in Texas A&M but this is a lot of points to lay with a team that has given up 40 plus in 2 of the 4 games they played.
I'm off a winner I gave out on my college football deep dive with Troy and GA State going over. Something to keep an eye on for Troy here this week against mighty Arkansas State. Both of these defenses are awful. We also know Arkansas State has one of the best passing offenses in the country. They have a gunslinger QB and 3 really good wideouts. They also basically admit they are going to throw a lot with the sixth highest passing play percentage in the country. The thing to keep an eye on is Troy. QB Gunnar Watson went out of the game against Georgia State and coach Chip Lindsey says it's too early to tell if he will play Saturday. I will keep an eye out, if it's game on for Watson I will be involved in this one.
Good luck this weekend and enjoy the games. Keep a look out for my weekly deep dive betting preview this weekend where I am 4-1-1 on the year.