Good news....there's college football tonight.
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana-Lafayette. A pretty good game in the Sun Belt between two undefeated teams.
Currently, the line sits at Louisiana -9 and the total is 59.
Let's look at these two teams rankings from a few ranking systems.
SP+: Louisiana (43), Coastal Carolina (82)
FEI: Louisiana (55), Coastal Carolina (87)
Sagarin: Louisiana (51), Coastal Carolina (52)
Most believe that Louisiana (the home team) is the better team. The biggest advantage comes in Louisiana's offense against Coastal Carolina's defense (25th vs. 100th according to SP+). However, CC's defense has been pretty good this year, ranking 22nd in EPA. Although the offenses they have faced were Kansas (71st) and Arkansas State (42nd). The offense has been pretty good this year for CC, but Louisiana is by far the best defense they've faced this year.
Pace Of Play:
Interestingly enough, Coastal Carolina plays slow...actually one of the slowest in America at around 30 seconds per play. Louisiana plays at a just below the average pace of 26 seconds per play. Combine this with Coastal Carolina facing the best defense they've faced in 2020 and Louisiana averaging 2.3 points per drive, the under is an intriguing play.
This morning the line sat at Louisiana Lafayette -7/-7.5. The line has been bet down all the way to -9/-9.5 despite 63% of the tickets being on Coastal Carolina. The money is believing in Louisiana. This could be due to only a few having COVID information relating to Coastal Carolina.
We currently sit at 37-34-2 on the season for a gain of 0.95 units. It's been a tough 2 past weeks, but hopefully we'll kick off a winning week tonight!
I'm going with a 6-point teaser: Louisiana -3/Under 65.
Best of luck to anyone who plays this tonight!