I'll tell you this, it's definitely starting to feel like Week 7 of college football. This morning in the Philadelphia area it was in the 40's.
In just 9 days the Big Ten is back. PAC 12, Mountain West and MAC will follow.
But until then we have 75 teams to bet on and find value in. Let's see where we are heading into Week 7.
Oddsmakers have caught up to Ole Miss totals. Or have they? Can you set a total high enough with the Rebels? They were historically bad last week against Alabama defensively and have been woeful to start the season. On offense, they are one of the fastest teams in the country and Arkansas will match them in pace here. Ole Miss is giving up a shocking 51.7 points per game, worst in the country and it's been to a multitude of different styles of play. Arkansas can present an interesting challenge in that the goal here is likely to keep the ball on the ground and hopefully out of the hands of the Rebels. They also are solid defensively. Not exactly sure why Mississippi is a favorite here on the road. Arkansas got a raw deal last week against Auburn and should be ready to play and get the bad taste out of their mouth at home against a truly inept defense.
Disappointing Louisville heads to South Bend to take on mighty Notre Dame. They started the season with a win, played valiantly against Miami and it's been all downhill from there. Last Friday, they gave up 32 to GT in the second half and defensively this team is horrible allowing 6.2 yards per play and this seems like a rough spot. In 4 games, they've allowed 45+ twice. Now they have to play a top 5 team whose scored 94 points in their last 2. I was thinking we'd see a number around 19/19.5, instead it 16.5. Seems like a 48-24 type of game. Points will be on the menu here. Not sure I see a situation where Louisville gets stops.
Texas A&M is off a big time outright win against Florida and now they have to move on and head to Starkville to face a floundering MIss State team off a hideous offensive performance against Kentucky. I am absolutely licking my chops here with grabbing MIss State plus the points. Which I already did. When you gamble you have to be willing to see these spots, it's clear Texas A&M is a bit overvalued after last week. The crowd maybe helped them a bit and now feeling themselves have to go play a team that in the eyes of the public isn't any good. A&M's defense sucks and over the last 2 weeks has allowed Alabama and Florida to complete 73% of their passes and have allowed 747 passing yards. Mississippi State will be able to move down the field and as long as Costello avoids mistakes, they will be fine. Don't sleep on the State defense, they are really good up front and should bother the hell out of Mond.
Cincy and Tulsa square off this week with one of the lowest totals on the board at 44. These are two of the better defensive teams you'll find both allowing under 21 points per game. Tulsa has played the likes of UCF and Oklahoma State, not too shabby giving up 16 and 26 to those teams. Both units are slow from a plays per game standpoint and this seems like a first to 20 may win. Both teams are particularly reliant on the run game and both have struggled at scoring in the red zone. Also when looking forward to Saturday, Tulsa is forecasting for windy conditions with winds in the mid to high teens and gusts that will be higher. There aren't many low scoring games any more in college football. This could be one on Saturday.
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