Total Record: 66-55-2
Bills -3 (buy the hook at -120) and Bills/Titans OVER 51.5
The Bills may be a public play but I can't bring myself to bet against this team. They're 3-1 ATS and Josh Allen has looked like a legitimate MVP candidate. This is an offense averaging almost 31 points per game with a QB playing at an elite level, a solid run game, two really good receivers in Diggs and Brown and extremely efficient in the redzone, due to Josh Allens great decision making and running abilities near the goal line. The Titans have a ton of question marks right now. They've had Covid-19 problems running rampant amongst the organization, turmoil, uncertainty and a lack of practice over the last few weeks. In the NFL I think the lack of practice is probably less relevant than ever but still worth noting. What is definitely worth noting is that the Titans have not beaten anyone good. They have three wins over the Broncos, Vikings and Jaguars by a combined 6 points. Also the defenses on both sides have been vulnerable and the over has hit in 5/7 of their combined games. Take the Bills and the over. This is a game where the Bills are clearly the better team. You don't go broke betting on good teams. If you bet on the Titans and they get blown out you'll be rolling around in bed thinking "Why the fuck did I bet the Titans?" Don't be that guy.
Don't overthink this. Playoff baseball comes down to one thing. PITCHING. Who has better pitching you ask? The answer is simple. The Tampa Bay Rays. Their starting pitching is better. Their bullpen is better. They're a better baseball team. The Rays have the best bullpen in baseball and are going to rely on it heavily tonight. They're starting Ryan Yarborough, a guy who's probably gonna go two innings tops and then hand the ball over to this dominant bullpen. The Astros are starting Jose Urquidy who in 4.1 innings in his start in Game 3 of the ALDS gave up 5 hits and 4 ERs. The Rays are going to win this game and win this series in 4. You heard it here first.
Braves +110 and Braves/Dodgers UNDER 8.5
Huge news that Clayton Kershaw has been scratched from this game due to back spasms. Real tough break for Kershaw and Dodgers fans as a whole. Regardless that doesn't change the fact that the Braves pitching has been nothing short of dominant in the playoffs. In 6 playoff games they've allowed a combined 6 runs including 4 shutouts and 5 of those runs coming in one game. Absolutely absurd what this Braves pitching staff has been doing. Starting pitching and bullpen have been off the charts spectacular. They have Ian Anderson on the bump tonight who in his two playoff starts has went a combined 11.2 innings 0 ERs and 17 Ks. I almost wish Kershaw was pitching so the value on the Braves in this game could be even greater but I will still gladly take them here at plus money. I also like the under because I think this series as well as the other are going to be dog fights for runs all series long regardless of the stacked lineups on both sides in this matchup specifically. Good pitching beats good hitting in the postseason. Braves and the under.