Writer's note: I'm Carl’s intern who made him a bunch of money for years with my independent NFL betting blog before stepping up to Barstool all of last season.
We hit the ground running last week with correct calls on the Bills and Cardinals, so let's just keep this shit rollin'.
Pick #1: Eagles -1
Rams (1-0) @ Eagles (0-1); 12pm CT
Action: 39% of bets on Eagles -1
First off, I told you Thursday that the Eagles would be favored by today:
...but we'll pivot and work with Eagles -1 without the tease; you never tease through zero.
After Week 1, the public is perceiving LAR and PHI to be going in opposite directions. The Rams edged out a mega-hyped Dallas offense in prime time while Philly blew a 17-point lead to a "Football Team" projected to finish in the bottom-4 this season. But that's ONE week - gimme Philly.
I can't tell you why Doug Pederson had Wentz airing it out downfield behind a weakened O-line with limited outside weapons against Washington's vicious D-line last week, but that's what happened. This had Wentz swarmed and it forced some bad decisions that gifted Washington the ball in Philly territory a zillion times. You couldn't tell from the 27 points they scored, but the Washington offense actually finished dead last in yards per play among all teams last week (3.4). The Eagles D is not a problem, and with the right gameplan, neither is their offense.
The Eagles coaching staff embraces analytics and they're quick to learn from their mistakes. Against a Rams D with a putrid linebacking corps, you can expect the Eagles offense to return to its strength: quick-hit passing over the middle of the field. The return of Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders won't hurt either. And defensively, you can expect their healthier front-7 to send Goff into malfunction mode throughout the afternoon (slightly above average without pressure, statistically one of the worst QBs in the league when pressured).
Philly is a playoff-caliber team, and this will be a desperate all-in effort to avoid a 0-2 start and keep playoff hopes high. Capitalize on the value created from their gross Week 1 display before they show up BIG today.
Pick #2, Teaser: Giants +11.5 (teased from +5.5) and Chiefs -3 (teased from -9)
Giants (0-1) @ Bears (1-0); 12pm CT
Action: 73% of bets on Giants +5.5
As a Bears fan, the Week 1 win over Detroit felt like a rough handy. It got the job done, but getting there wasn't pretty. Some of the Chicago faithful are basking in a euphoric refractory period of victory, but I'm still chafed from Mitch's performance in the first 3 quarters. Shit was unwatchable.
When Maserati/Hot Mitch went off in the 4th quarter, it was against a Lions defense missing its top-3 corners under a head coach in Matt Patricia who is quickly approaching "Dan Quinn" territory as a defensive-minded HC whose defense sucks. Even still, Chicago was a D'Andre Swift dropped TD away from blaming Mitch's anemic three quarters for the loss and whispering for Nick Foles this week.
Switching to the Bears D, they're a Top-10 unit for sure, but they're not the same caliber as the Top-3 defense in the Pittsburgh Steelers that the Giants faced last week. Saquon will be in for a similarly tough day, but Danny Dimes will fair better against a less potent Bears pass rush and back end.
The Bears are the better team, but take a teaser leg that gives you double-digit points and... I hate to say it... the better QB.
Bears win by single digits, you win this teaser leg.
Chiefs (1-0) @ Chargers (1-0); 3:25pm CT
Action: 82% of bets on Chiefs -9
I started this blog with an unpopular pick, and now I'm wrapping it up with the most popular bet today. Fuckin everybody has the Chiefs here.
Let me be clear: there is NO value with the Chiefs -9. Knowing public favor for KC, sportsbooks opened this line at an inflated -8, and the barrage of Chiefs bets pushed this further to KC -9. Backing the Chiefs at this number is like a solo musical performance from Bono or a WWE singles match from Gangrel - no edge.
Everyone's expecting a Chiefs blowout, but arguments can be made that this stays close: familiar divisional opponents, LAC trying to suck the life out of this game on the ground, the Over/Under dropping from a 50.5 open to the current total of 47, no in-person attendance in LA keeping KC fans out of SoFi stadium... but fuck all those arguments.
I'm hesitant on KC -9, but KC -3 is the teasiest teaser leg I've ever seen. Maybe the Chiefs play this close to the vest and treat this as a "run the ball, show nothing, win the game and no one gets hurt" game, but they're winning by more than a field goal as long as Mahomes' appendages stay attached to his body.
KC's offense is elite, and it's an oooold take to say that KC's defense is a liability. I wrote about it as it was happening last year - their D banded together and found their identity while Mahomes was injured mid-season last year, and they rode that momentum all the way to a Super Bowl win. This is a complete team.
As for the Chargers, their 16-point output in a fortunate Week 1 victory over the Bengals became even less impressive after a resurrected Baker Mayfield and the Browns ran train all over that same team on Thursday night. The bottom line is that Tyrod Taylor is a game manager who is now showing inaccuracy on short-to-intermediate throws (making him far less game manager-y) and deterioration in his mobility.
Enjoy the most dependable coach/QB betting combo since Belichick/Brady with extra time to prepare against a FAR inferior coach/QB combo.
Download the Barstool Sportsbook app if you haven't yet, punish some brews, and let's have ourselves another winning Sunday.