Barstool’s Champions League Preview

Sam's Army4/21/2015 6:16 PM

Sam’s Champions League Preview

THE CHAMMMMMMMMMMMPIONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNS

Gives me a sports boner every time.

No need for an intro. Second leg of the UCL quareterfinals speaks for itself.

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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Quick reminder of the scores from the first legs played last week:

Funny how soccer works sometimes. Tuesday’s games turned out to be rather tame affairs (never mind Real Madrid’s complete domination of Atletico for the first half that somehow – magically, I assume – led to zero goals), so much so that Big Cat was calling for a change to the home-and-home dynamic that [admittedly] does lead to some boring first legs. This is not always the case, however, as proved by the wide open, entertaining, goal-heavy games on Wednesday.

For the second legs, the teams that played on Tuesday now play on Wednesday and vice versa, with the schedule looking like this:

I don’t typically do a recap of my previous picks in the posts, and I’ll refrain from doing so again here but I did commission a graphic illustration of how they turned out:

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TUESDAY

Barcelona (-275)
PSG (+650)
Draw (+450)

Things were looking pretttttttttty bleak for PSG when they were down 3-0 AT HOME last Wednesday but Barcelona’s Jérémy Mathieu, out of either pity for the poor French buggers or rage for having two accents in his name, did this:

Wait, so…

Hahahahahaha. Nope. Sorry, PSG, but your chances of progressing look like this:

Having said that, with Zlatan back in the fold I don’t expect them to do that thing that the French have been known to do ever since the beginning of recorded history (ie, roll over and play dead). A slightly unmotivated Barca and an extremely butthurt PSG might actually make this a game. I’m going 2-2 draw.

***

Bayern (-300)
Porto (+750)
Draw (+450)

Hey, remember that time commenters called me an idiot for picking Porto to beat Bayern in leg one. Nah, me neither. (Keep hating you beautiful babies.) Here’s the thing though: I basically know I am going to get every pick wrong this week after doing so well last Wednesday and this past weekend, but Porto appear to have gotten a litttttttttttle overconfident:

“A dragon does not tremble”

Ooooookay, guy. Let’s take a quick step back here and remind ourselves exactly who Porto has played on their way to the quarterfinals: Lille, BATE, Shakhtar, Athletic Bilbao and Basel. So basically some upstarts and a few legitimate contenders… for the Europa League. And then came last week’s (impressive) win at home against a decimated Bayern squad. Okay, so yeah, you’re a dragon:

Unfortunately for Porto, Bayern is a big strong man with a big bad sword that could easily cut its wee head off – if the big strong man were healthy. Fortunately for Porto, Ze Germans are still nowhere near healthy, with Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery, David Alaba, Javi Martinez and Medhi Benatia out, and (wait, there’s more?? Yep, more) Philipp Lahm and Juan Bernet doubtful. One of the few additions to the squad that just got spanked in Portugal is Bastian Schweinsteiger, who is likely still hobbled a bit with an ankle injury. So yeah, Bayern is nowhere near fit. However, they still have a ridiculous amount of talent and with the game at the Allianz arena there is absolutely no counting out this club. This one is tough cause Porto is bringing every bus ever made on the Iberian continent to park in front of the net tonight… but I still think Die Roten somehow, someway manage to squeak it out. Bayern to win 2-0 (and thus advance).

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WEDNESDAY

Monaco (+230)
Juventus (+125)
Draw (+220)

Monaco has defied (my) expectations at basically every turn. I thought bookmakers were too down on them last week and they did put in a good run but couldn’t find a breakthrough and eventually conceded. I am tempted to stick with the French side largely on the basis that this is again more of a toss-up than the odds would suggest, particularly given the likely absence of Paul Pogba in Juve’s midfield. But let’s be serious: facing an Italian club that only needs a 0-0 finish is never a good thing, especially given Juve’s impressive defensive record (one goal conceded in 9 games… is that good?) so I’m following the path of least resistance on this one and predicting a terribly unentertaining game* for everybody but Juventus supporters that ends in a 0-0 draw.

(*predicting a boring game almost ALWAYS ensures a 5-4 barn-burner… you’re welcome)

***

Real Madrid (-130)
Atletico Madrid (+375)
Draw (+260)

Atletico is now undefeated in all SEVEN Madrid Dærbies played this season. That is incredible. That said, anybody with two eyes and one brain who watched the first half of last week’s leg knows that Atleti was very, very fortunate to come through without having conceded a goal. The club came out of their shell a bit in the second half and created a few changes, and Real seemed to have lost their mojo, which all in all led to a rather uninteresting second 45 minutes of soccer.

More importantly, it sets up an incredibly tactical game on Wednesday. Real Madrid will be afraid of conceding early as it puts them in a serious away-goals hole, but playing “defensive soccer” just isn’t in their DNA. Their defenders are more committed to going forward than strikers on most clubs. Essentially, first goal wins. If it’s Atleti, they put ten men in the box. If it’s Real, Atleti will be forced to push forward and will end up conceding more. As much as I love Simeone, and as much as I strongly dislike Ronaldo, I’m going with Real in this one. Just too many weapons. Real to win 2-1.