Red Sox, Rick Porcello Agree To Four-Year, $82.5 Million Extension
Ben Cherington got himself a steal, as the Red Sox announced after Monday’s beatdown of the Philadelphia Phillies that Rick Porcello had agreed to a four-year extension worth $82.5 million to remain in Boston through the 2019 season.
It’s bizarre that we’ve reached a point in professional sports when we can call signing a player to a deal that has an average annual value of $20.6 million a “steal”, but it is. We have to keep in mind that Porcello is a rare breed. Players with his kind of talent rarely reach free agency after their age-26 season. It just doesn’t happen anymore, but it would have happened had the Red Sox not had this deal in place. If Porcello had reached the free agent market this winter — and put together a season this year that bares resemblance to what he did last year — then you’re looking at a price tag of six, maybe seven, years and $100 million-plus.
Did the Red Sox overpay in terms of dollar value? That remains to be seen, but let’s just say, for the sake of argument, yeah, they probably did. According to FanGraphs, Porcello has never been worth more than $14.6 million in a season, which is what he was worth in 2014. But what some people fail to realize is that the Red Sox can afford to do that. Overpaying Porcello now is worth it for three reasons. First, because you eliminated the scenario in which any other team could drive up the price for you. Second, because overpaying on a short deal allows the Red Sox to avoid the long term deal that they’ve been so gun shy about since the Carl Crawford debacle. And last, they just bought Porcello’s prime years while he’s trending upwards, without having to invest in any of his risk years.
Something else to consider, with Porcello’s extension complete, the Red Sox have low key established a rotation that is here for the foreseeable future. Porcello’s extension takes him through 2019, Wade Miley signed an extension this past winter that has him under team control through 2017 with a team option for 2018, while Joe Kelly isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2018 season, and the Red Sox hold team options for Clay Buchholz for the 2016 and 2017 seasons. If the Red Sox add an ace either this summer or in free agency next winter, you’re looking at a really solid staff for the next few years.
The knee-jerk reaction should be that this is a good deal for the Red Sox. Unless he has a terrible start on Wednesday. In that case, he sucks and the Red Sox should trade him immediately.
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