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There Was a 2% Chance This Pete Alonso Dinger Resulted In An Out Last Night

That was an absolute BOMB.  Third decker.  It was almost Andres Gallarraga/ Glenallen Hill territory.  You remember these bombs?

absolute fucking moonshots. But apparently stat cast and advanced analytics abide by Dente’s pizza review scoring system and “no home run is perfect”, because Pete Alonso’s 474 foot blast last night only resulted in an xBA of .980.

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111 MPH off the bat.  30 degree launch angle.  474 feet.  In my humble opinion, a perfectly hit baseball.

though it was a perfectly hit baseball that had a 2% chance of resulting in an out.  Ummm what?  Check out the lil green box on the right side of the graphic below:

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.980 xBA, or .980 “expected batting average” aka that ball had a 98% chance of resulting in a hit.  Yeah…. no.

Now it’s not the biggest deal in the world… but it kinda is.  Like wtf Baseball Savant?  It is both mathematically and physically impossible for that ball to result in an out.  It almost waters down Baseball Savant and advanced analytics as a whole for me.  I’ve said it before, that advanced analytics are best used as a complement to using one’s own brain when dissecting a baseball player and his output, but now I don’t know what to believe.  It stinks.  It stinks to high heavens.  In the end it’s whatever, but at the same time it *kinda* pissed me off.

But speaking of pizza reviews – the Dente/Bryce Harper/Kevin Hayes Pizza Review in Philly earlier this week was an ALL TIMER.  Absolutely hilarious top to bottom and though I don’t prefer east coast pizza typically, the pizza looked fantastic to boot: