Trilly Grades Your Prebuild: Detroit Pistons Edition
Welcome back,
You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there are only sixteen: Clippers, Heat, Kings, Lakers, Cavs, Wizards, Pelicans, Suns, Wolves, Mavs, Hawks, Magic, Hornets, Knicks, Bulls, and Grizzlies.
I’ll take a look at three things they did well, three things they failed at and three things they could do this summer to improve. I’ll issue one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
Detroit Pistons (41-41, 8th place Eastern Conference)
Good Things
1. Blake is a star again
I think this was Blake’s best overall NBA season. That’s not a particularly hot take but for a guy with multiple second-team All-NBA’s and a top 3 in MVP voting season on the résumé, that’s a big deal. His usage rate was a career high and took more 3-pointers than he ever has but his efficiency went up. His rebounding and defense slipped but he played in 75 games, lead his team in field goals/three-pointers/free throws taken and assists. Something had to give. He’s not cheap either but consider the Pistons are still paying Josh Smith, and just about any salary for Blake feels reasonable.
He had a three-year absence from the All-Star team that was snapped this season and I gave him my completely real and very valid third-team All-NBA vote this season. A guy capable of having a top 15-ish season alone gets you in the mix and you can build from that.
2. Front Office appears competent
Ownership greenlit a new arena (I’ll be honest, idk how that shit works) and approved the Blake trade so they seem willing to try, which is more than some can say. Dwane Casey is a good coach. He lost his job because he couldn’t beat LeBron James and took a team that had been under .5oo the past two seasons to the playoffs. GM Ed Stefanski might just be good at his job too.
His first move was hiring Casey. Last year was his first draft and without a first-round pick, he came away with Khyri Thomas and Bruce Brown. Both saw postseason minutes for the Pistons and Brown looks like a gem defensively. He turned Reggie Bullock’s expiring contract into Svi Mykhailiuk and a second round pick. He cut bait with Stanley Johnson and rolled the dice on Thon Maker. He’ll have all his future first round picks at his disposal and a good coach/star to build around.
3. Young, cheap talent. Finally.
None of it is red or blue-chip talent. Hell, it might not even be a chip and if it is, the chip probably doesn’t have a color. But it’s young talent damnit. The aforementioned trio of Brown/Thomas/Svi will make four million dollars combined next season. Luke Kennard isn’t Donovan Mitchell but he’s a rotation player at worst. Thon Maker might not be that, but we know for sure Stanley Johnson isn’t that so that’s a win. They’ll have a top-15 pick this year and Brown/Thomas/Svi show there’s value to be had in the second round if you search for it.
Bad Things
1. This team isn’t fun to watch
That’s completely subjective of course, as is everything else in this blog. It is what it is.
I don’t like watching this team play. They’re plodding (28th in pace), they take a lot of threes (6th in 3PAr) but don’t make a lot of them (23rd in 3P%). Reggie Jackson took over 1,000 shots this season. They win with principles that would make any 1990’s Heat-Knick game proud: dominate the rebounds (fourth in ORB%, fifth in DRB%) and play good enough defense (11th in defensive rating). They did what they had to do to build around the strengths of their personnel. I get it. I just don’t want to watch it. PU.
2. The cap situation is a mess
They’re paying Josh Smith $5 million dollars next year and he hasn’t suited up as a Piston since December 2014. Langston Galloway and Jon Leur, who ranked 8th and 16th in MPG for Detroit, make $16 million next season. Jackson and Andre Drummond combine to make $45 million. Blake had a top 15-ish season, but he’ll be the seventh highest paid player in the league each year until 2022. Basically what I’m trying to convey is that their shit is fucked™ for the time being.
3. Less than ideal market
The reason they have a lot of those awful contracts on the books are, first of all, Stan Van Gundy. Second of all, because they have to overpay to get/keep talent in Detroit. The new arena hasn’t helped the attendance and free agents aren’t flocking to play in Detroit. They built the core of this team by overpaying to keep their own guys (Drummond), betting big on a young bench player elsewhere in hopes he takes a leap (Jackson) and paying handsomely to guarantee you have a star under contract (Blake). That got you a .500 record and the 15th pick, mediocrity personified. You can find a star at #15 (Giannis, Kawhi, Adreian Payne) but the chances are slim. It’s even less likely they have the pieces to trade for a star and even less likely they can sign one outright. As aforementioned, their shit is fucked.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. Cap space opens up soon…
…if you can keep from doing anything egregious. They have $40 million dollars in contracts expiring and more importantly, Drummond has a player option that summer. He’s going to decline it to hit UFA. He’ll be 26, is extremely durable (78+ games in six straight seasons) and for all his warts, he’ll probably go down as the best rebounder of his era. Every team that blew their cap space when the cap jumped four seasons ago will have money again next summer. Drummond will opt out for a longer deal and this is Detroit’s chance to change their team! By then, they’d only have Blake/Kennard/Svi/Brown/Thomas and plenty of cap space to overpay someone to replace Drummond! The system works.
2. Pull another “Blake”
One summer from now, we’ll be going into an NBA season where Chris Paul, John Wall, and Russell Westbrook will make north of $40 million dollars. Gordon Hayward is on the hook for a cool $34 million dollars and that doesn’t even include the bad contracts that will be signed this summer! The Pistons may have to pull another “Blake”.
Pulling a “Blake” is waiting for a team to sign a star and the trading for him because that star would never sign with you. The Clippers paid the premium and Detroit was happy to swoop in for Blake, because there’s zero chance he would sign a five-year deal there in free agency. The game is the game. As mentioned above, the Pistons will have cap space but no premier talent will take it. They’re going to have to wait for the Kemba and Jimmy Butler deals signed this summer to age poorly and then pounce. And honestly? I don’t hate it. You could do a lot worse than a Westbrook/Blake led team going into the 2020 season.
3. I’d entertain trading Drummond
He’s improved just enough every season to be intriguing and he’s big enough that teams will always have to account for his size/rebounding no matter how small the league trends. He’s the best rebounder in the league and he’s coming off a career high in PPG with 17. Moving Drummond would be more so about getting something for him before he opts out next summer, and you probably don’t want to pay him that third contract so move him now. Plenty of teams will have cap space this summer (Knicks, Clippers, Kings, Nets, Hawks all project to have at least $50 million) and not all of them will sign Kawhi Leonard or Kevin Durant.
Maybe Dallas wants to add a big to keep Porzingis from too many minutes at center. Maybe the Kings are willing to take on Drummonds salary, the way they did with Harrison Barnes, to run with DAF and crew. In theory, the Nets could trade for Drummond and then still match any RFA offer that D’Angelo Russell got. Say Kemba bounces and the Hornets want somebody, ANYBODY that people have heard of to put on the front of their building. I think there would be a solid market for Drummond if he became available. I’m not sure how solid the return would be, and Detroit certainly shouldn’t give him away. But if the Hawks call and offer Kent Bazemore or Miles Plumlee (for salary) and a future first rounder (the one the Cavs owe Atlanta perhaps) in exchange for Drummond? I think the Pistons should listen and get a jump on building around Blake for as long as he’s healthy. But until then:
Rebuild Status: Oh no