Trilly Grades Your Rebuild: Orlando Magic Edition
Welcome back,
Today I’ll be looking at my filthy bitch of an ex, the Magicians. You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there’s only four.
The rules are the same: I’m going to be taking a look at three things they did well, three things they failed miserably at and three things they could do this summer to stop stinking. I’ll be issuing one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
Orlando Magic (36-38, 9th seed Eastern Conference)
Good Things
1. Orlando won the Dwight Howard trade
As part of a 4-team trade, traded by the Orlando Magic with Earl Clark and Chris Duhon to the Los Angeles Lakers; the Denver Nuggets traded Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, a 2013 2nd round draft pick (Romero Osby was later selected) and a 2014 1st round draft pick (Dario Saric was later selected) to the Orlando Magic; the Los Angeles Lakers traded Christian Eyenga, Josh McRoberts and a 2017 2nd round draft pick (Wesley Iwundu was later selected) to the Orlando Magic; the Los Angeles Lakers traded Andrew Bynum to the Philadelphia 76ers; the Orlando Magic traded Jason Richardson to the Philadelphia 76ers; the Philadelphia 76ers traded Andre Iguodala to the Denver Nuggets; and the Philadelphia 76ers traded Maurice Harkless, Nikola Vucevic and a 2018 1st round draft pick (Landry Shamet was later selected) to the Orlando Magic.
All the picks have finally conveyed between the four-team blockbuster from 2012, Orlando stands victorious! Congrats. This may be the argument that you should just get as much “stuff” as you can when you trade a superstar. He’s a joke now, but in 2012 Dwight was 26 and coming off four straight All-Defensive first teams and five straight All-NBA first teams. The Magic ultimately got no blue chipper but a lot of “stuff” for him. Vucevic turned into an All-Star. Afflalo turned into Evan Fournier. The two picks turned into Elfrid Payton. Iggy had one year in Denver, Bynum didn’t play a game for Philly and Dwight only made two more All-Star games. Orlando wins something. Finally!
2. Vucevic was historically great this season
Kevin Love (3x), Karl-Anthony Towns (3x), Nikola Vucevic. That’s the entire list of people with seasons of 20+ PPG, 12+ RPG and hitting at least 36% from 3P, like ever in history. And Vucevic has been the last line of defense for the 7th most efficient defense in the league this season. If Towns ever gets the Wolves to a top 7 defense, you’ll never hear the end of my mouth. That’s a star and this summer he’ll rightfully be paid like one. The offensive numbers are nice but that was never this issue with Vucevic, it was always going to come down to defense. And if he can anchor a top 7 unit defensively, you can certainly build a potent offensive unit around his talents.
The market for big men has dried up, it’s true. The market for big men that can score, shoot, rebound and defend will never dry up. Even if the defense is a fluke/product of Steve Clifford’s system, it shows Vuc is capable of. DJ Augustin was his PG this season and a 30-something-year-old Jameer Nelson is the best PG he’s played with. He’s only 28 and has been relatively durable over his eight seasons. Orlando wanted a star to build around following the Dwight trade and they have one. 12 years later, but they have one.
3. Young non-Vucevic talent
The Magic now have a smorgasbord (read: more than one) of assets! The most intriguing to me is Jonathan Isaac. I liked him quite a bit coming out of college and it’s a real shame he landed in the shithole of an organization that is the Orlando Magic but he’s trying, Jennifer. He doesn’t put up eye-popping numbers, and likely never will, but he doesn’t need to. He projects to have a Pascal Siakam-esque type of versatility if he hits his ceiling, and so far so good. As his body fills out, he should be able to protect the rim, defend on the perimeter, catch and shoot, create a little off the dribble and hit his free throws. He’ll give Orlando a lot of options in deciding how they want to build with/around him.
Mo Bamba played 47 games this season before a January injury shut him down for the year. He didn’t show much in his limited time, but him going into the offseason healthy is priority #1. Orlando should still be excited about his potential. Even Aaron Gordon, who is still playing 40% of his minutes at SF, is still an asset. He’s still a freakish athlete, he’s at a career high in assist% this year and is hitting 40% of his corner 3’s over this season and last. I think they gave up too much for him but I love rolling the dice on Markelle Fultz. Maybe he’s nothing. But MAYBE, maybe he’s Markelle Fultz! Worth it imo.
Bad Things
1. The young talent either all plays the same position and/or can’t shoot
Vucevic is strictly a center. Same for Bamba. You can get cute with what you call them based on who you play them with but generally speaking, they are both centers. Isaac and Gordon are probably best suited to play the 4 right now, though I can see getting minutes at the 5 many years from down the line. Gordon squeezes to the 3 to make it work, but his tools are best served at 4. He’s also the second-best shooter of the quartet, behind Vucevic, which makes for extremely tough fits on the court with minimal spacing. Maybe Fultz will be able to shoot again one day but he can’t right now. As a team, they’re 14th in 3PA rate and 13th in 3P% so they’re making do with what they have. But imagine how much more potent Vuc in the post or Gordon/Bamba’s athleticism could be with real spacing around them.
2. Fultz is a risky move, relatively
Relatively in the sense that if he doesn’t work out, the alternative was probably just another year of DJ Augustin (who has been good this year but is still DJ Augustin, lest we forget) or Jerian Grant. But Grant is a RFA after the season and Augustin is going into the last year of his deal. Orlando is projected to pick 13th now and there aren’t many PG prospects around that range unless they fall in love with Tre Jones….another guard that can’t shoot wow. Fultz is making $10 million next season and $12 the season after that, a bargain if he is what Philly thought he was going into the 2017 Draft. It’s a pricey gamble if he isn’t. Orlando is at $84 million in committed contracts next year and that doesn’t count for Vucevic or Terrence Ross, who are both unrestricted FAs. If Fultz works, none of this matters. If it doesn’t, you may be stunting the growth of the young big men.
3. Mid City
The front office is mid. Steve Clifford is mid. The market is some mid. We keep hearing that Florida having no state tax will attract stars and Bismack Biymbo aside, it has not fared Orlando well. Their potential cap space is middling. They’ll either make the playoffs as a 7/8 seed and get promptly waxed or just miss the playoffs and have a mid ass pick #13 or 14. I like the young pieces but I wouldn’t bet my life any of them become stars. They will probably finish 41-41 this year and every year for the next six.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. I’d entertain keeping Vucevic.
Maybe not on the 5-year max, or even 4-year. He can be a nice bridge until Bamba is ready, if he ever is. Isaac has a long way to go physically, and even then he can play with Vuc. Like Kemba in Charlotte, Vuc took a very team friendly deal and outperformed it. The team and community seem to love him and I do think there’s value in that continuity. He’s not hitting an absurd number of 3’s or blocking 6 shots a game either. The improvements to his game have been gradual enough to where I don’t think they’re a fluke. His assist percentage has risen but his turnover percentage hasn’t. If he keeps playing solid defense and swapping long two’s for short three’s, he may have another level in him. After making $12 mill a season for the past four, maybe he jumps at 2 years/$60 million with a player option on that second year. That gives you some time to see how Bamba develops and even the ability to trade Vuc if Bamba is looking like a star. The second year being a player option basically gives Vuc the power of a No Trade Clause if he says he’s opting out. He could opt out and hit UFA again, or opt-in and facilitate the trade to a destination of his choosing. If Vuc walks this summer, you’re praying Bamba is ready and playing a lot of Timmy Mozgov. No thank you, please.
2. Trade Aaron Gordon
It’s time. For his sake. For your sake. For the sake of the team. For the sake of the city of Orlando. I know what you’re saying.
“But where, Trilly? Trade him where and for what?!?”
To that I say, if you’d shut your whore mouth for two seconds you’d know I’ve already done the legwork on a couple of trades that I think could benefit both sides. These all work in the trade machine, probably.
– Aaron Gordon for Spencer Dinwiddie/stuff.
Dinwiddie has shown he can play on/off ball so you can play him with/around Fultz. He’s also signed to a very reasonable 3-year/$34 million dollar deal The Nets commit to D’Angelo Russell and basically use their cap space to take on the 3 years/$56 million remaining on Gordon’s cap space. He slides into a super athletic frontcourt next to Jarrett Allen.
– Aaron Gordon for Jalen Brunson/Courtney Lee/First round pick
The Mavs don’t care about draft picks. They traded one for Luka, they traded one for Porzingis and while Gordon isn’t that level of player, they’re ready to win now. Go look at their history of first round picks and see how long it takes to find one that signed a second contract with Dallas. They don’t value picks and have gone all in on that front. Gordon making money now while Luka is dirt cheap helps smooth out the cap. Orlando gets a pick and Jalen Brunson, who has looked great since the DSJ trade.
-Aaron Gordon for CJ McCollum
Portland is looking at a tough first-round matchup against Utah as is, and now they’ll do it without Jusuf Nurkic. Another first-round exit, regardless of the circumstances, probably means Portland has to shake it up. McCollum can play off the ball as we know, but I still think he has another level if he’s made primary creator somewhere. Gordon would give Dame an above the rim option he’s never really had and could be dangerous if his corner three numbers are legit and Nurkic gets healthy. Portland is already at $123 million in cap space for next year (the salary cap is $109 mill for next year btw) and that doesn’t include Aminu, Seth Curry or Rodney Hood. McCollum for Gordon cuts $9 mill of this years number, in exchange for Gordon’s deal running a year longer.
I think Utah would be a good fit. Washington could work as well. There are options if they look to trade him before the teams with cap space blow their cap space.
3. They could also go full tank. Again.
There’s no way the front office would do it with the team as close as it is to the playoffs, but they should consider it. Making the #8 seed, getting clapped by the Bucks and then splurging on Vuc/Ross locks you right into #8 seed with no cap space and less upward mobility. If Vuc stays and plays well, Bamba probably isn’t getting his minutes and you’ve spoiled another asset. They’re close to being locked into the mediocrity they’ve been wading in since the Dwight trade.
On the other hand, if you let Vuc/Ross walk, flip Gordon and hand the keys to Fultz/Isaac/Bamba you could REALLY tank right. Mozgov/Augustin expire next year and Fournier expires the year after that. I’ve always thought a smart playoff team should steal Fournier from the Magic. He had a down year and he’s not cheap, but he’s 26, can shoot, dribble/pass enough and isn’t a trainwreck defensively. He’s making $17 mill but you could do a lot worse and many teams are. The Heat are the #8 seed right now paying Ryan Anderson $20 million not to play. Allen Crabbe is at $18.5 million for a #7 seed Nets team. Wilson Chandler is making $12 million and he’s shooting 22% from the field since arriving in LA. Imagine the wide-open looks he’d get in Terrence Ferguson or Jae Crowder’s shoes.
But I digress, let Fultz/Isaac/Bamba carry you through a 20 win season and you could be looking at a #1 pick. Move Gordon/Fournier and you’re looking at about $65 million in cap space that same summer. You’re basically the Knicks this summer, only you’ve been incompetent for about six years and not sixteen.
Rebuild status: Oh no