Barstool’s Champions League Preview – The “WINTER IS HERE (kinda)” Edition

Sam's Army2/12/2019 6:30 PM

Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies

Hi Haters™,

We made it, folks. It may seem like years or even eons ago when last we festooned our eyeballs on the gloriousness of Champions League soccer but in truth it was in mid-October. Nevertheless, a lot of things done changed in the time since. Babies were born. Old people died. Tom Brady won another ring. Jozay took a temporary hiatus from coaching and out of solidarity Sam’s Army Podcast did likewise. Both of us shall rise again soon but that’s neither here nor there at the moment because for right now the only thing that matter is we have 16 teams left standing in the greatest annual soccer competition known to man** and it is time to cut that group in half by way of eight head-to-head, manos y manos, knock down drag out home-and-home fixtures.

Needless to say, we were all this little baby when the alarm hit this morning:

Time for some (great) previewing and (turruble) prognosticating? Time for some (great) previewing and (turruble) prognosticating!

**until/until Gianni “I Swear I’m Not a Penis I Just Look Like One” Infantino and his FIFA cronies ruin it

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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Here are the matchups and schedule as determined by that totally-definitely-not-rigged-for-sure-fair-and-balanced-whoops-is-that-who-Barcelona-and-Real-Madrid-are-gonna-play-wow-imagine-that-crazy-how-that-worked-out draw that took place last year:

At the end of the day though the best (and least injured) team is going to emerge victorious so never mind the possible bias because there are some incredible fixtures spread out over the next month so from here on out let’s focus on the positive and concentrate on beating our proverbial meat to that. Here’s how the specific schedule is laid out:

A couple things to keep in mind heading into these games:

1) VAR HAS OFFICIALLY ARRIVED! No more war! No more famine! Poverty is a thing of the past! Racism gone forever! Oh thank god that VAR is finally here to solve all our problems and clear up any and all controversies! (In truth I am interested to see how this plays out. I think it could be really useful for offside – if they work out some kinks like communicating with fans wtf is going on. However, my big fear is that they are going to waste time reviewing too many “judgment calls” that end up strangling the beautiful game without actually adding much in the way of upside. Tee bee deeeeeeeeeeeeeeee…)

2) Keep in mind that first legs of home-and-homes can often turn into “cagey affairs”

3) Injuries are going to be a HUGE factor. We already know that PSG, Liverpool, Tottenham and Dortmund (the latter two facing one another) have been losing guys left and right.

Good. Great! GRAND! Now on to the games at hand…

***

United [+125]
PSG [+200]
Draw [+235]

United and especially Ole Gunnar Solskjaer deserve a lot of credit. The season looked like it should have been aborted in its first trimester under the tutelage of the One True Content King (may he ripip) but Frodo Baggins’s little friend showed up out of nowhere and suddenly the thought of some precioussssssss silverware – once an abject pipe dream – seems an unlikely-but-not-unthinkable outcome.

However, the 11 games under OGS were exclusively against teams with zero hopes of winning trophies…

Rude!

Despite the recent resurgence, my overarching thoughts on United have not changed from the very start of the season, which is that their defense is simply not good enough to really compete with the likes of better teams… and that theory is about to get tested BIG TIME over the next couple of months because aaaaaaaaain’t a lot of creampuffs on the Red Devils’ schedule moving forward:

That said, could they compete with a weakened PSG squad missing two of their top three players in Neymar and Edinson Cavani (plus RB Thomas Meunier)?

WHY PSG COULD WIN: Kylian Mbappe running at Eric Bailly, Chris Smalling or Phil Jones (whoever is paired with Victor Lindelof [assuming he’s healthy]) is a mental picture that could, should, would and just might (definitely) leave some poop stains in the underoos of United fans today. It is kinda easy to forget that PSG also has plenty of talent to support him with the likes of Julian Draxler and (a vengeful) Angel Di Maria. The Frenchies defense is pretty damn good, and Marco Verratti is about as good as it comes as far as players who can disrupt things in the middle of the field. With the exception of the three goals they gave up at Anfield, PSG was damn good throughout the Champions League (and have only given up 13 goals in 22 games in Ligue 1 – not that people are going to give them much credit for that). If they can find a way to hang back and limit the amount of space available to Rashford and Martial, then steal a goal or two via Mbappe… that sort of scenario is not at all unthinkable.

WHY UNITED SHOULD WIN: This is a totally different team under OGS, with nobody going from zero to hero as fast as Paul Pogba, who has been absolutely KILLING it ever since he was given the freedom to roam around (mostly down the left side) and make things happen.

They have always had talent but Jozay was too caught up in the cult of his own personal genius to realize that his overbearing approach and negative tactics were the club’s biggest problem. Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford are beasts, Lingard offers some creative flair and Lukaku….. well, can’t win em all. So the team has plenty of weapons and is playing well, and actually believes they should win, which is a total 180. So of course they could score a handful of goals against the undermanned Parisians. Can they hold the fort on defense? That’s the question. In theory Lindelof and Bailly (who has a bit more giddyup than Smalling/Jones) is probably the best CB duo, and they will have a lot of help in trying to corral Mbappe from two of the world’s greatest junkyard dogs (that’s a compliment) in Nemanja Matic and Ander Herrera.

Prediction: A close game that could go either way. Right now as I am typing this I still not sure what my pick is gonna be. Tough to hate a 1-1 draw in a first leg like this… but I’m going to go a little off the beaten path and say – counting on some luck, a few biffed finishes from Lukaku and a big game from Gigi Buffon – PSG to win 2-1.

Roma [+100]
Porto [+270]
Draw [+235]

Each team was handed favorable group draws that allowed them to waltz into the knockouts and both can score goals in bunches. On paper it looks like a very interested matchup, though some situational details may weigh on the proceedings a little bit. Notably, it was 12 months ago in the first leg of the R16 that Porto took an ass whupping for the ages from Liverpool, losing 5-0 at home in a game. That’s the kind of beating that leaves a lasting imprint on your psyche and will likely be on their mind heading into this one.

That plus the fact the visitors will be without their top two strikers in Moussa Marega and Vincent Aboubakar suggests that the Portuguese are likely to come out waaaaaaaaay less aggressive in this one than they might have been expected to. Trying to keep the Italians in check is no easy task, with Edin Dzeko and Justin Kluivert likely leading the line, and predicting a low-scoring game involving Roma seems pretty stupid given the tendency to be involved in shootouts:

Thankfully nobody is accusing me of being very smart, and when all else fails I have no choice but to defer to rule #1 of Champions League: never doubt the Portuguese. Gimme a 1-1 draw.