College Basketball Gambling And Games Guide: Jan. 26
Welcome to the first edition of the college basketball gambling and watching primer. We’re going to mimic similar to what JackMac did for college football as the focus on the weekends have shifted to college basketball. I’ll be giving out my picks, previewing games and letting you know what you should be watching on these 12 hours of Saturday basketball. I’ll update my record following each week starting this one at 0-0 as this is the first edition.
Reags Recommendations:
Marquette -2
Kansas State -3.5
Under 144.5 Kentucky/Kansas
Tennessee -14.5
Over 135 Virginia Tech/Syracuse
Duquesne +3.5
Bradley +6.5
Stony Brook -1
5 Best Games Of The Day:
5. Marquette at Xavier
4. Iowa State at Ole Miss
3. Syracuse at Virginia Tech
2. Auburn at Mississippi State
1. Kansas at Kentucky
Kansas at Kentucky (-6, O/U 144.5)
Easily the game of the day here. This is starting to become a staple matchup as Kentucky and Kansas typically are paired up in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge when they aren’t in the Champion’s Classic. This time it’s at Rupp Arena and we have Kentucky rocking some new kicks. Not sure why they didn’t go with one of the 50 Kentucky guys in the NBA but I digress
Now, this game will end up being on what you think of the mismatch. Kansas is getting back to the 4-out offense centered around Dedric Lawson. Kentucky runs the two bigs with PJ Washington and Reid Travis. This is where Kentucky can get in trouble defensively. Washington is best suited to defend Dedric Lawson, but that leaves Reid Travis to chase someone around. That’s not a good thing. So you’re going to put Washington on a Garrett/Agbaji. Kentucky should go small in this game and start Immanuel Quickley and let Washington guard Lawson straight up to start. On the other side of the ball, it’s going to be if Tyler Herro continues to shoot the ball well – 44% in his last 9 games from three. When he’s going that offense just opens up for Hagans and Johnson to attack.
So despite the mismatches, here’s the thing. Kentucky’s biggest weakness defensively is giving up looks from three. Kansas isn’t a good 3-point shooting team. Kansas unders have also hit 60 of the last 94 road games (64%). We’ll trust the numbers here.
Reags Homer Pick of the Week: We’re going under 144.5
Road Favorite to trust pick: Marquette -2 at Xavier
So these two played earlier this year and Marquette won by 18. I know that they are different at home. BUT, Naji Marshall is questionable for the game. Xavier’s defense has been inconsistent.
All you have to do is look at the 3pt stats. Xavier is 292nd in 3PA/FGA and 251st in 3pt% defensively. Marquette is 119th in 3PA/FGA and 24th in 3pt%. Marquette also has Markus Howard, who can drop 50 whenever he wants. If Marshall is out, jump on this early. He was key in the 1st game (21/7). I love that Marquette can defend this year and again, this is a small road favorite to trust.
Fuck it, let’s trust the talent on the road: Kansas State -3.5 at Texas A&M
Kansas State is a bit undervalued still. Dean Wade being healthy completely changes this team on the offensive side. That’s where they obviously need the most help, because that defense can play anywhere. A&M relies on offensive rebounds (47th in the country in Oreb%) to save them from bad offense. Kansas State is 3rd in defensive rebounding percentage. Brown/Wade should be enough offensively to deal with the road trip.
Advertisement
Rocky Top is the song in hell pick: Tennessee -14.5 vs West Virginia
The No. 1 team in the dumb AP poll is Tennessee. I hate that. They aren’t the best team in the country. Great team for sure, but not the best. Spare me that. What they have done though is steal the last two games (home vs Alabama and at Vanderbilt).
Simply put in this game, I have no idea how West Virginia can score in this game. West Virginia is 259th in effective field goal percentage offensively while Tennessee is 29th in the same category defensively. Tennessee simply makes it tough to score, especially around the rim. They play physical, challenge your shots. The one place that WVU can take advantage is on the offensive glass. Tennessee is actually a terrible defensive rebounding team and WVU is 11th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Finally, remember what Grant Williams did against Vanderbilt? He went 23-for-23 from the free throw line, which flat out ridiculous. Well, there’s not one team in the country who depends on refs not calling fouls more than West Virginia. The pressing style and aggressive defense is dictated on applying pressure and daring refs to call a bunch of fouls. They reach, they hack, they’re physical. It’s part of what has made them great for the last few years. But, they also foul a ton. That means Tennessee is going to get a ton of free points at the line since they’ll be in the bonus early. The Vols also happen to shoot 77% from the line as a team, which is 8th best in the country.
Don’t let Buddy Boeheim get hot pick: Over 135 Syracuse/VT
Don’t you dare let Buddy Boeheim get hot. He’s 11-for-20 from three in the last four games and the fact that Syracuse can add some outside shooting is massive. Plus, let’s look at something here. Buckets are easy to get at VT:
Advertisement
This is a weird game. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone forces you to shoot 3-pointers with an athletic, long guard contesting your shot. Virginia Tech wants to get up threes. The Hokies are 56th in the country in 3PA/FGA and 3rd in 3pt%. The question will be can Nickiell Alexander-Walker and Justin Robinson penetrate that zone enough to draw the attention and swing to an open three vs a contested three late in the shot clock. On the other side of the ball, Virginia Tech gives up a ton of looks from three as well. Syracuse obviously prefers to get the ball inside, but they have shooting with Hughes and Boeheim.
Home dog barking pick: Duquesne +3.5 vs VCU
We’re going to the A-10 and my guy Keith Dambrot leading the way here.
Expect this game to be, well, hideous. Both teams rank in the top-30 in turning other teams over while ranking sub-275 nationally in turnover percentage offensively. Expect a lot of turnovers, both live and dead balls. But, we have VCU coming off a loss at Rhode Island, keeping them with just two road wins – one vs Texas and one vs Fordham. They struggle on the road. We’re going to rely on that here.
Advertisement
Let down game praying to Sister Jean: Bradley +6.5 at Missouri State
Missouri State just beat the shit out of Sister Jean and Loyola. I mean it wasn’t even close – Loyola scored 35 points. They are now at home against a bad Bradley team. There’s no reason to thing that Bradley will stick around in this game. But, what if I told you that Missouri State is the worst team in the country at defending the three and Bradley is a decent shooting team? What if I told you that we believe in let down games, especially at this level. We’re talking about college kids here. It’s easier to get up against conference favorite Loyola and then the turnaround for a let down game against a team that you’re supposed to beat.
A star is out, blind bet pick: Stony Brook -1 vs Vermont
This is a blind bet strictly because Anthony Lamb is out with a concussion. He’s the best player in America East by far. The line moved from Stony Brook +1 to -1 pretty quick so jump on it as fast as possible. This was going to be the matchup in America East this year and with Lamb out you lose some luster here. Vermont got killed at home by a bad UMBC team without Lamb and now have to go to Stony Brook. Stony Brook has a top-100 defense and despite having all the Duncan brothers on their team, not having Lamb is a quick trigger for me.
National TV Schedule
ESPN
Iowa State at Ole Miss – Noon
Kansas State at Texas A&M – 2pm
West Virginia at Tennessee – 4pm
Kansas at Kentucky – 6pm
Syracuse at Virginia Tech – 8pm
ESPNU
Alabama at Baylor – Noon
South Carolina at Oklahoma State – 2pm
South Florida at East Carolina – 4pm
Tulane at SMU – 6pm
ESPN2
Florida at TCU – Noon
Texas at Georgia – 2pm
Vanderbilt at Oklahoma – 4pm
Arkansas at Texas Tech -6pm
Arizona State at USC – 8pm
Arizona at UCLA – 10pm
CBS
Virginia at Notre Dame – 1pm
FS1
Ohio State at Nebraska – Noon
Marquette at Xavier – 2pm
Colorado at Stanford – 8pm
BTN
Illinois vs Maryland (at MSG) – Noon
Northwestern at Wisconsin – 2:15pm
Rutgers at Penn State – 4:30pm
SEC
LSU at Missouri – 6pm
Auburn at Mississippi State – 8:30 pm
CBS Sports Network
Colgate at Loyola (MD) – Noon
Davidson at St. Louis – 2pm
Utah State at New Mexico – 4pm
Wichita State at UConn – 6pm
UNLV at San Diego State – 8pm