What Are The Best National Title Futures Bets In College Basketball?
This is something I get asked about quite a bit, especially now with football ending and focus shifting to hoops. Who are futures that you should be betting on?
What teams are out there that I like for a futures bet. I start every season breaking down whether or not I’m betting or staying away from the top-10 teams according to Vegas and then give out a couple of my personal favorite longer shots. If you missed that blog you can read it here. From the top-10 I gave out Kentucky (+700), Kansas (+750), Gonzaga (+900), Nevada (+1200) and Virginia (+1800). My longshots were West Virginia (+40000), Florida (+50000) and NC State (+100000). Out of those groups I still feel great about Virginia and Gonzaga. I’m fine with Kentucky, Kansas and Nevada. The longshots, West Virginia and Florida are done but I love NC State.
We’ll set it up the same here. I’ll take a look at the 10 best odds and then throw in a couple longshots that stick out to me into the mix if you’re feeling frisky. Some may be double downs, some may not. Let me know what ones you like.
Duke (+200) – Is Duke the best team in the country? Yep, don’t think that’s even a question. They have the heavy favorite for NPOY in Zion, who is listed at -150 as of this morning. They are actually a great defensive team, which makes them miles ahead of other freshmen-led K coached teams. But, I’m going to pass here for one reason. 2/1 odds to win it all. I’ll take that mayhem happens in a one loss and go home. Again, yes, this is the best team in the country, but I’ll pass on 2/1.
Gonzaga (+1000) – What if I told you Gonzaga hasn’t been at full strength until Saturday and has that neutral court win over Duke on the resume? Because that’s exactly what happened. Gonzaga just got back Geno Crandall to add depth to that guard spot and more importantly Killian Tillie played for the first time. Tillie might be the best offensive player on Gonzaga. This team is more talented than the one that lost to UNC in the 2017 title game. I’m going to roll with Gonzaga. They need to improve defensively, but I’m all in on this team.
Michigan (+1000) – One of the three undefeated teams in the country is Michigan, which may shock some after remembering what they lost last year. But, one thing they didn’t lose? John Beilein who just continues to set up dominant teams up at Michigan. Zavier Simpson might be my favorite player in the country this year after reading about what a lunatic he is during practices and then hitting dudes with a sky hook as a point guard. I’m going to take this team at +1000, it’s the best team in the Big 10.
Virginia (+1000) – Virginia was my preseason pick to win it all. Yeah, yeah, I know UMBC. But, I’ll rebuttal with De’Andre Hunter. Yeah, I know about the tempo. I’ll rebuttal that a team like Villanova won playing an incredibly slow tempo. The play of Kihei Clark has been unreal as a freshman, allowing Ty Jerome to play off the ball and Hunter at the four. For only the second time this team has a top-10 offense on KenPom. The last time? Virginia made the Elite Eight before collapsing in the second half against Syracuse. That doesn’t happen this time around.
Kansas (+1200) – I wrote about Kansas recently with the loss of Udoka Azubuike for the season. It’s going to absolutely change how Kansas looks, most notably by moving to a 5-out offense based around Dedric Lawson. It’s what Kansas has done in recent years, going small, but this year’s team isn’t nearly as good of a shooting team as years past. Until that changes, I’ll pass on this team.
Tennessee (+1400) – Tennessee is off to probably the best start in school’s history. They look the part and they have the ability to have a ton of roster versatility thanks to guys like Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield. The key is going to be their offense against athletic teams. We saw them score against Gonzaga and beat them. We saw them push Kansas to overtime. But, I’m going to pass. Are they going to be able to shoot enough from three when tournament time comes around? They rank just 329th in 3PA/FGA. They are an average 3pt shooting team. That’s what I’m going to be watching with Tennessee.
Kentucky (+1600) – Kentucky has the ability to beat anyone in the country but also lose to anyone. We’ve seen them look the part of a top-5/10 team and a non top-25 team. Now, I think they’ll figure it out and be a top-15 team coming into March. But, I don’t love a couple of things. First, Reid Travis absolutely struggles against athletic bigs – see Alabama and Duke. Second, I don’t love the inconsistency in defending the 3pt line. I’ll pass.
Michigan State (+1600) – Michigan State is coming off an impressive win at at Ohio State when down 7 at half without Joshua Langford. That’s going to be a question. Will Langford’s injury linger? How long will he miss? Cassius Winston has looked the part of an All-American as he continues to be an elite passer while taking care of the ball. I do love that they have that at the lead guard spot. I do wonder how well they’ll be able to space the floor with Izzo wanting to play Goins/Ward/Tillman together. We saw that hurt them against Syracuse last year. I’m going to pass for now as I monitor Langford’s injury.
North Carolina (+1600) – Similar to Kentucky we’ve seen UNC play as a top-5/10 team and look like barely a top-25 team. Luke Maye hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations as a 1st team All-American. Kenny Williams isn’t shooting the ball well at all. People are talking more about Nassir Little’s playing time situation and role more than what’s actually happening on the court. This feels like a team that will be top-15 and lose in the Sweet 16. I’ll pass.
Nevada (+1800) – Another ‘mid-major’ from out West? Yep. I love this team and I don’t care that they lost to New Mexico by roughly 450 points. This group is a bunch of fifth year seniors that should/could be pros. They are going to coast during the regular season and look bad at times. I’m fine with that. They know what the NCAA Tournament is like. They don’t turn the ball over. They are defending at a pretty high level. They can score with pretty much anyone in the country. I’ll take them.
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So out of the top-10 I’ll roll with Gonzaga (+1000), Virginia (+1000), Michigan (+1000) and Nevada (+1800) at this point in the season. For the next three wildcards I’ll avoid saying NC State again, though I don’t hate taking them still.
Virginia Tech (+40000) – Virginia Tech is currently 13-1 and still flying a bit under the radar. They are running a two point guard set with Nickiel Alexander-Walker and Justin Robinson. They are shooting 44% as a team. They run a ton of ball screens to let these guards attack. They want to run and give you a different look defensively. Plus, Buzz is a lunatic that’s impossible not to love.
Indiana (+50000) – Indiana is the clear 3rd best team in the Big 10 for me. They have two guys in Juwan Morgan and Romeo Langford that can carry them for games. They have role players that fit around them. They are getting steady play at the lead guard spot. Archie runs that packline defense and is willing to adjust a bit more than Sean when it comes to this during the NCAA Tournament. If they can cut down their turnovers, I like this team even more.
Iowa State (+125000) – This is the number I currently found on Bovada and they aren’t even listed on Betonline. That’s wild. This is possibly the best team in the Big 12 and you should be racing to take them. They are finally at full strength. They have a unique mismatch with Talen Horton-Tucker. They have the leading scorer in the Big 12 in Marial Shayok who is also a pretty great defender. They have a guy in Tyrese Haliburton who is one of the most effective players in the country. Give me all of the Cyclones.