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A Quick Look At Vegas' Updated NBA Odds, What Do They Know?


Everyone knows Vegas is almost never wrong. They don’t build all those casinos because they lose ya know? So with the NBA season quickly approaching the midway point, we have some updated NBA odds. Vegas has had a chance to see how everyone looks and adjust accordingly. Some of their positioning has me a little confused so it makes me wonder what exactly do they know. You’ll see what I mean as we go through some of these categories, so let’s dive in

NBA Title Odds

GSW – 2/3

TOR – 8/1

BOS – 10/1

HOU – 12/1

MIL – 14/1


IND – 50/1

MIA/UTA – 80/1

BKN/NOP/SAS – 100/1


OK right off the bat what stood out to me is the Celtics still have the 3rd best title odds. Vegas has seen this team play? I assure you I did not create those odds even though it stinks of homerism. I’m not really sure how MIL can have the 5th best title odds while also currently owning the league’s best record, the leagues best point differential by a wide margin at +9.3, and an MVP favorite. If we’re just going by what we’ve seen so far, they should be no lower than 3rd in my opinion. Maybe even 2nd. They have a better offense and defense than TOR, just as much depth, and has beaten them in both of their meetings so far. I dunno if Vegas thinks they are about to start dropping, but what have we seen that gives them that impression?

Also, IND having that much lower odds than PHI when they are better than PHI is pretty hilarious. The Pacers have a 3x as high point differential, a better record, and are 19-5 so far in the conference, which is the best in the East. Having them at 50/1 is too low in my opinion.

MVP Odds

G. Antetokounmpo – 8/5

L. James – 5/1

A. Davis/J. Harden – 6/1

S. Curry/K. Leonard – 15/2

J. Embiid – 10/1

K. Durant – 16/1

P. George – 25/1

N. Jokic/R. Westbrook – 33/1

D. Lillard – 50/1

K. Irving – 66/1

Not that bad of an updated list. I get having LeBron 2nd, but to me it all comes down to how many more games he misses and if Harden continues this current tear. I also would have Paul George a little higher, maybe tied with Embiid at 10-1. He’s been fantastic for OKC, they’re 2nd in the West and George is having one of the best seasons of his career on both ends. Also, at what point do we start to hold AD’s team’s success against him when it comes to MVP odds? They have the 2nd worst record in the West, and he has the 3rd best MVP odds? Does that not seem weird to anyone else?

Rookie Of The Year Odds

L. Doncic – 1/12

D. Ayton – 8/1

J. Jackson Jr. – 16/1

T. Young – 16/1

This is actually one I have no complaints with. Maybe put Jaren Jackson a little higher, but it’s been pretty clear for a while now it’s Luka and then everyone else. Despite his dogshit record DeAndre Ayton has been a monster, and if Luka didn’t exist he’d for sure be the leader in the clubhouse.

Eastern Conference Champion Odds

TOR – 7/4

BOS – 5/2

MIL – 9/2

PHI – 7/1

IND – 16/1

MIA – 25/1

BKN – 33/1

CHA/ORL – 50/1

DET/NYK/WSH – 80/1

Similar situation here like with the title odds. IND is way too low. At the very worst they should be tied with PHI, and for some reason Vegas is giving them no respect. I can understand thinking they don’t have  shot to win the title, but if we’re going off what we’ve seen, this is a top 4 team in the East.

Western Conference Champion Odds

GS – 2/5

HOU – 7/1

DEN/LAL/OKC – 12/1

UTA – 50/1

NO – 66/1

DAL – 100/1

The LeBron factor is strong with this one. On what planet have the Lakers shown to be on the same level as OKC/DEN this season? That’s the thing though, you get LeBron in a playoffs series and everything changes. He can beat teams essentially by himself, we’ve seen him do it time and time again, but if I’m DEN/OKC I am offended by this. Vegas also clearly believes that HOU has solved their problems, and their success without CP3 is probably what has them in that 2 spot.


Biggest takeaways for me are that Vegas still believes in the Celtics despite them looking like dogshit for long stretches up until this point, they still don’t truly respect MIL/IND, and just like the rest of us they expect GS to win the title. Looking through this though, does anything else stand out to you that doesn’t make sense? There’s some good value out there right now, and I’m curious to hear your thoughts.