Here's Something to Feel Good About, Pats Fans: JC Jackson

As you can well imagine, it’s been a grim couple of days in New England. Being 9-5 might be the way they’re used to living in places like Baltimore or Minnesota. And it’s the kind of dream scenario that makes you have to wake up and change your underpants in say, Cleveland. But it’s not our reality. It’s the kind of thing we only hear about in legends passed down by our tribal elders in between tales of how they had to walk to school through the snow with a hot potato in their pocket to keep them warm and then eat the potato for lunch. So it’s a tough adjustment. So this week everyone is wandering around doing the Thorazine Shuffle in a sort of depressed fugue state.

I know the Knee Jerk Reaction I posted yesterday was full of darkness and anxiety. And that’s not like me. Pessimism is not how I’m hard-wired. But given the state of things, I’m pretty sure I wallowed in misery for 10,000 words or so, just to vent. As a catharsis. And even with that, just to get back to my factory setting of always looking for the positive, I mentioned the one blazing, luminous bright spot in that Pittsburgh game: JC Jackson.

I wrote quite a bit about Jackson, the UDFA out of Maryland, as far back as the first day of public practices and through all the preseason game, he stood out that much. Even while admitting that you never know with these bottom of the roster guys. Especially the undrafted ones. If I could go back in time I’d travel to Training Camp: 2014 and declare the kid out of West Alabama is going to be a three year starter and one of the highest paid corners in the league. But if I ever even noticed Malcolm Butler’s existence then, it’s lost to memory. And I’ve seen dozens of players who looked as good as Jackson who never made it past the first cuts. So drawing conclusions in August is madness.

But Jackson made the roster. And while they’ve brought him along slowly, he’s unquestionably making the most of his shot. Here are the percentages of snaps he’s taken in the last five games:

Week 11 vs. Tennessee: 17%
Week 12 vs. New York Jets: 33%
Week 13 vs. Minnesota: 89%
Week 14 vs. Miami: 79%
Week 15 vs. Pittsburgh: 88%

Granted, some of that increase might be gameplan specific, attributable to some teams running spread vs. 2-back sets so the Pats were using the extra corner. Belichick today said of the Steelers game, “we anticipated seeing a lot of four and five receivers, well, three, four and five receivers, and we did. So, that brought in extra defensive back opportunities.” While adding about Jackson’s increased playing time, “That’s kind of how it started for J.C. – a few plays here and there and then it became more than that.”

Early on in the season he saw enough work in subpackages to pick up an interception and a pass defensed against Miami. Then repeated the stat line against Chicago. And over the last three weeks, as his snap count has gone up, he’s been locking receivers down:

Vs. Minnesota: 38 coverage snaps, 7 targets, 4 receptions, 23 yards allowed
Vs. Miami: 23 coverage snaps, 2 targets, 1 reception, 15 yards allowed
Vs. Pittsburgh: 37 coverage snaps, 9 targets, 4 receptions, 44 yards allowed

With much of those numbers coming against, respectively, Adam Thielen, DeVante Parker and Juju Smith-Schuster, whom he held to these numbers:

And made this PBU in iso coverage without safety help to keep his team in the game:

On the season, he’s giving up receptions at just 51.4 percent. He hasn’t given up a touchdown reception, and among cornerbacks with 190 or more plays in coverage, he’s got nothing less than the lowest passer rating against in the NFL. By a wide margin:

I’ll concede the obvious that his sample is still somewhat limited, when he’s been on the field less than half of some of these other guys. But that’s changing. And actually not much of a knock against him considering that quarterbacks make quarterback money specifically by targeting undrafted rookie cornerbacks with no experience. Now that he has some and the game tape to back up his numbers, it’s very possible his coverage stats will stay the same.

And with Buffalo coming to town in what has become a must win game (pause while I re-read that sentence and gather myself for a minute) and bringing with them a 3-headed King Ghidorah of big receivers in Zay Jones, Robert Foster and Deonte Thompson, JC Jackson’s emergence as an asset on the outside could not come at a better time. We could really use something to feel good about, and right now he is definitely it.