Forecaster Frank's 2018 NLCS Preview
Brewers in 6
There is no hotter team in the postseason than the Milwaukee Brewers, who have not lost a game since September 22nd. Since that date, Milwaukee has won 11 games in a row, including a one-game Central Division Tiebreaker over the Cubs at Wrigley Field, and the NLDS sweep, in which they outscored the Rockies 13-2. The Los Angeles Dodgers also come in playing their best ball of the season, record an 18-9 record in September before beating the Rockies in a one-game Western Division tiebreaker. In the Division Series, the Dodgers easily dispatched the overmatched Braves in four games.
In the season matchup, all in the two-week window after the All-Star Break, the Dodgers won four of seven. Taking two of three in Miller Park with the debut of Manny Machado, and splitting four in Dodger Stadium two weeks later. At the time, the Brewers were scuffling, as Christian Yelich had yet to hit his MVP stride.
The Brewers main concern as the series begins has to be rust as they finished off Colorado on Sunday. When you are as red-hot as the Brewers have been you want to go out to the park every night. The Dodgers who are in the NLCS for the third straight year are seeking a return to the World Series, having dominated the Cubs last year after losing the year before. Clear Los Angeles has the edge in experience; a key will be taking the fans in Milwaukee out of the game. With an edge in starting pitching the Dodgers must take control of the game early, as the Brewers bullpen is one of the best in baseball. In their sweep of the Rockies, Milwaukee ran the bullpen game in all three games effectively as Colorado scored in just one of the 28 innings played.
Clutch at-bats and timely hitting have been the key for the Brewers, as they did not make much use of the long ball against the Rockies, though Christian Yelich seemed to be in the middle of every rally, with a .571 OBP. Mike Moustakas acquired at the deadline from the Royals had several big hits in the Division Series; he is the most experienced Brewer in the playoff having played a big role on Kansas City’s 2015 World Championship. The one area Milwaukee needs to improve is base running as they ran themselves out of a few innings in the NLDS. Mistakes against like that a team against the Dodgers may be harder to overcome.
The Dodgers meanwhile are home run happy, coming off a Division Series where they hit eight home runs in four games. Nobody appears to be more locked in than Max Muncy and Manny Machado who each had a pair of dingers. Machado, who struggled at times with the Dodgers, has shown why he was the prize of the deadline market, with six RBI against the Braves. Justin Turner meanwhile continues to be a postseason masher batting .357 in the NLDS. The 2017 NLCS co-MVP has a lifetime .325 average in the postseason.
In the old days a team like the Brewers, without a frontline starter would be no match for the Dodgers, who are able to call upon Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jim Ryu, and Walker Buehler to give them quality innings. However, 2018 is the era of the bullpen, it seems that it’s more important to have a stronger and deeper bullpen. Add in home field for Milwaukee and you have the Brewers in six.
NLCS MVP:
Christian Yelich