Things To Watch Out For In Tonight's Western Conference Finals Game 7
Before Memorial Day Weekend officially ends, we have one more Game 7 to make it through. Now two more fanbases can spend 2+ hours tonight freaking out, hoping it’s their franchise that punches the last ticket to the NBA Finals. For the Rockets it will be their first time back since 1994-95 when they won back to back titles, and for the Warriors it will be their first time back since……2017, but it will also mark their fourth straight and a date with CLE for the 4th time. In my opinion, this has been a tricky series to try and predict game to game. It seemingly can’t make up its mind, does this want to a be a close, heavyweight slugfest, or is it just going to be blowout city where you basically don’t have to watch half the game. In Game 6 it was a little of both, so at the very least that’s what I’m hoping for tonight. I have basketball depression right now and the one thing that can help numb the pain would be an all time classic Game 7. If we’re going to be fortunate enough to be blessed with such a performance, there are things you should be watching out for from both sides. Let’s have a look
1. Which James Harden will we get?
Safe to say this is one of if not the most important game of James Harden young career. Game 7 at home, you’re most likely going to win the MVP, this is a chance to knock out the one team you’ve been gunning for all season, you have to show up and show up BIG. Obviously you hope he finally hits a three on a cosistent basis and now would be a perfect time to snap out of that funk. Really with Harden, it’s all going to come down to his efficiency. He’s had a weird series in that the games he really struggles from the floor the Rockets somehow win, but now with either no CP3 or a severely hampered CP3, Harden isn’t going to be able to afford another 10-24 / 4-12 performance.
One of the big reasons we saw Harden struggle at the end of Game 6 was clearly fatigue. He had a 40% usage rate on Saturday and by the end of it he was gassed. You have to imagine the Rockets will use him just as much tonight, so if that’s the case I’d love to see Harden really exploit the P&R to find a mismatch, and once he does attack the shit out of it.
The best thing the Rockets can do is get the Warriors guards in foul trouble, and every possession they find themselves with a Harden/Curry matchup they need to exploit it.
2. How the Rockets make sure Clint Capela is a non factor
Game 6 was really the only game this entire series we didn’t see much of Capela outside of his rebounding. He finished with just 2 points on 1-3 shooting, numbers that certainly will have to be better tonight. Capela is one of those guys where you’ll never run an actual play for him, but his involvement in the P&R as the defense shifts to the ball handler, often Harden, is how he gets his easy dunks. Which is why that if the Rockets are going to get Capela involved, they’re going to have to do a much better job at moving the ball. They finished Game 6 with just 13 assists, which is crazy for a team that has this type of offense. I suppose this is where they truly miss Paul the most, but one way or another they need to have some sort of presence in the middle with Capela. Getting the Warriors to move side to side to help open up driving lanes is one of the easiest ways to do it.
3. Can the Warriors not poop their pants in the clutch
It’s one of the more bizarre things about this Warriors team. They’ve shown their inability to not poop their pants in high pressure situations time and time again this series. I can’t say it makes much sense, with the only thing I can come up with is maybe it’s just what happens with a high turnover prone team like GS.
But aside from the turnovers, the big thing will be how guys like Durant handle the fourth quarter if this is a close game. In their most recent close fourth quarters his shot selection has been pretty unDurant-like. Tough midrange jumpers out of the post, threes that weren’t close, it’s very important that they remind Durant he is the best scorer on the planet and to realize he doesn’t have to settle.
4. Live or die by the three
Few teams make the three point shot more a part of their offense than these two, and it will always be a factor when they play. This is not to say as long as this area of the game is close than so will the score, because as we know that can happen like Game 6 and it was still a blowout.
The Rockets want to take upwards of 40 from deep, the Warriors often use them coming out of the half to break their opponents spirit. It’s what keeps both teams in the game no matter what, and the same thing that can bury their season if they struggle. It basically comes down to who you trust more. Do you trust Harden/Tucker/Ariza/Gordon to be efficient and productive from deep, or Steph/Durant/Klay?
What the Rockets have to be conscious of is the big momentum Fuck You Threes the Warriors love. You live with the ones they get as a result of great ball movement, you can’t have the ones where Klay is lining up from 30 feet. For the Warriors it’s deciding how much to commit to the drive and how much to stay home on HOU shooters. The Rockets love the quick transition three, but they are the kings of drawing in defenders and kicking it out to the corners. Tucker and Ariza thrive in those locations so be prepared for more of that.
5. Will Chris Paul even play?
As I write this, we have no fucking clue. Here’s the best I could find
You have to wonder even if he does play, will he be doing more harm than good. I guess just having him out there means GS has to pay a little bit of attention, but he immediately becomes a problem on the defensive end even if he’s like 60-70%. The way the Warriors run every one of their guards off screens spells disaster on that end if you ask me.
6. The battle of the turnovers
It may seem pretty basic, but it’s true. If either of these teams has a turnover problem against the other, they are going to get run out of the gym. The Rockets had 21 in Game 6 and lost. The Warriors 16 in their Game 5 and Game 4 losses. Houston another 19 in their Game 3 loss. Golden State had 15 in Game 2, and the Rockets 23 in Game 1. You could argue that it really has been one of if not the only constants of this entire series.
The Warriors turnovers are more self inflicted if that makes any sense. Stupid bonehead prayer TOs. The Rockets have those, but also fall victim to the Warriors length and get stripped a bunch. The Warriors are going to reach on Harden every time he drives, and if he’s not going to get bailed out I could see this starting the break for GS.
Either way, I can’t think of a better way to delay the post MDW scaries like a good old fashioned Game 7. I just pray we have a thrilling 48 minutes, we deserve it.
Enjoy the game everybody.