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Red Sox Unable To Sweep The Rays After Another Poor Start By Ricky Regression

Boston Red Sox v Tampa Bay Rays

Regression, thy name is Rick Porcello. It was fun while it lasted, but we all knew that Porcello wasn’t a low-twos ERA guy. That’s not a knock on him, but as a pitch to contact guy, that was never a sustainable start to the season. It was encouraging to see him get off to a hot start after the season that he had last year, but over his last four starts, he’s regressed to right about where you’d expect him to be, which is still good!

Through his first seven starts, Porcello carried a 2.14 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and averaged 6.2 innings per start. Over his last four starts, he’s got a 7.29 ERA with a 1.86 WHIP, and he’s averaging 5.1 innings per start after Thursday night’s 3.2 inning blunder in which he gave up six runs (four earned) on eight hits, striking out a season low two batters. Not great, especially against a team that he has pitched well against in a limited sample this year.

His ERA on the season has ballooned from 2.14 to 3.74 over his last four starts, which is basically right about where you’d expect him to be at the end of a good Porcello season. Still, he’s kind of reached his regression limit if he wants to stay in the “I’m still having a good season” territory.

With all this talk about Porcello regressing, you might be led to believe that he’s regressed back to what he was last year, which was the pitcher who allowed the most homers in baseball and the most hits, but Porcello didn’t give up a single long ball in his loss to the Rays in the series finale. In fact — and this isn’t to completely take the blame off of Porcello, because he did pitch poorly — his defense was less than stellar behind him.

In the bottom of the first with the bases loaded, Porcello got a little tapper hit back to him that he fired home to Sandy Leon, who was unable to hang onto the baseball. If he catches it, Denard Span is out by a mile and no run scores. The following inning, Porcello once again found himself pitching with the bases loaded. This time, Wilson Ramos shot a base hit through the wide open right side. Two runs would’ve scored anyway, but Eduardo Nunez is the worst defensive player in baseball history, and booted Mookie Betts’ throw back into the infield from right field allowing another run to score.

The Red Sox made it semi-interesting in the ninth inning when Mitch Moreland blasted a solo homer that cleared the seats in right to make it a 6-2 game, then Rafael Devers doubled in a run to cut the Rays’ lead in half, forcing Kevin Cash to bring his closer Alex Colome into the game who absolutely sucks, but he got Sandy Leon to ground out to end it.

Speaking of Mitch Moreland, I think it’s time we have the conversation about Moreland cutting into Hanley Ramirez’s playing time a little bit. He’s 0 for his last 20, and he’s hitting .163 with a .500 OPS in the month of May. I’m not saying completely pull the plug on Hanley and go all in with Moreland as your full time first baseman, but in the interest of fairness, Moreland is earning the at-bats right now and Hanley is not. Until Hanley gets it going again, which he will, then Moreland should be seeing an uptick in playing time.

I’m actually really pumped for this Red Sox-Braves series. The Braves have a REALLY exciting team this year, featuring the two youngest players in the game in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis have been having no doubt All Star seasons. In game one, it’s Atlanta’s ace Julio Teheran. He’s got an ERA over four, but his ERA has gone up a full run just in his last two starts where he’s given up 10 earned runs in 11 innings to the Cubs and Marlins.

For Boston, it’ll be Eduardo Rodriguez who has pitched really well over his last three starts, which include two scoreless outings against the Yankees and Orioles. Over his last three starts, Rodriguez has a 1.72 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 15.2 innings.

Final score: Rays 6, Red Sox 3