The Change in Zone Defense in College Basketball and Does It Pay Off All Season

This is your warning before you read this article. It will be very basketball ‘nerdy’ and taking a look at the intricacies of zone defenses in college basketball. For those that like visuals, you can still read along as there are clips that will detail what I’m talking about.

I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but with the movement of more analytics in the game, I figured we here at Barstool SPORTS should adapt as well. So I went to Synergy and KenPom and decided to take a look at numbers specific to zone defenses. This is something I plan on doing leading up to the college basketball season and even throughout. It’s crazy to think we’re a month away from Midnight Madness, but here we are.

The first thing I noticed is zone defenses are down across the country. The increase of zone in 2013-14 is due to that being the first year of the freedom of movement initiative. 2014-15 saw a dip from that first year, then two years ago we saw another increase. Last year, zone defense dropped by about 1.3% on a national landscape. Here’s what it has looked like over the last six seasons: 

So what I wanted to look into were a couple of things. First, is there any correlation of playing zone defense and your defense getting worse as the season went on. Granted, I used a small sample size here, but the answer to that is actually yes. I took the five teams in Division I who played zone the most last season. They were Seattle (92.1%), Syracuse (91.9%), Eastern Michigan (91%), Holy Cross (89.3%) and Arkansas Pine-Bluff (86.4%). From there I charted their games last season using Defensive Efficiency (per KenPom), 2pt%, 3pt% and FG%.  I combined the five schools into one graph here, which shows they collectively get worse as the season goes on. On the flip side I charted the five schools who played zone the least amount last year. They were Fresno State, Florida Atlantic, St. Peter’s, St. Francis (PA) and Western Michigan (all under .7%). While zone defenses get ‘worse’ as the season goes on, the five teams who tend to play man actually improve.

I do admit off the bat there are some inconsistencies with the graph. First, as I mentioned earlier, it’s just taking five teams into consideration here. The other thing is the unbalanced schedules. Syracuse in theory should be playing tougher teams as the season goes on while the other four schools should be playing an easier schedule. But, as the headline reads, this is about if defenses can rely on zone and the change in zone defenses throughout the years. Right off the bat this graph and charting of games shows me playing zone early in the season has its benefits. You’re playing against offenses that aren’t in a rhythm yet. Zones, especially ones by these teams, are made to take away dribble penetration and force teams into jumpers. Early in the season you have guys adjusting to the college game, playing in different arenas and typically getting used to new teammates.

The other thing I want to look at is why is there a drop in zone play (even if it’s just 1.3%) and are zones evolving? While we call a zone 2-3, is it the same 2-3 from a decade ago? My thought process here is with the game changing to more shooters and spacing the floor being so valuable, teams are more likely to come either higher up in a zone or just play a man because they don’t want to give up open space where 3 is more valuable than 2.

There was one team in mind specifically I wanted to look at for this. That’s Syracuse, who is known for playing zone. I went back to the title game in 2003 to see how they looked in their zone vs last year. The first truth I noticed is the fact, they extended the zone more last year than in 2003. In 2003 the game was played inside out, meaning teams looked to attack the zone at the basket first, hoping to open up outside shots. Look at how compact the zone is against Kansas (who was a decent shooting team).

This was right as Kansas was getting into their offense. No one extended to take away the 3-ball. The back line in a pretty straight line to provide weakside help and rim protection. McNamara diving down a little bit. Compare it to last year:

That’s a major difference in design. Again, this is adapting to times and respecting shooters, but it also shows that zone defense (not my favorite thing in the world) can be picked apart as the seaon goes on. Here against Ole Miss, Cuse brings both wings up to the free throw line. Lydon, playing the center position in the second picture is above the charge circle. It’s no longer a 2-3 as much as it is a 2-2-1 now.

So what does all this mean? First, it’s a slow day and I have too much time on my hands. Second, while a small sample size, playing zone doesn’t pay off as the season goes on. Third, with the improvement of shooting and emphasis on shooting across the country, expect another drop in zone percentage this season. Coaches are starting to use zone more as a mix-up defensively. They are using it to show a different look or to help combat a weakness. For instance Duke has started to run more of a 2-3 zone when they have a short bench. The Blue Devils are always one of the best 3-point defending teams in the country and while they may give up points in the paint, they at least avoid foul trouble. Looking at their roster the last few years, shooting contests seem to be fine with them. That’s what you’re going to start seeing more of with the obvious exceptions to teams like the five listed above.

I know it’s a lot there and sounds real nerdy, which it is. But, we’re a month away from the season, which means we’re less than 2 months away from betting over/unders. Perhaps, this is something to keep in mind when it comes to totals. If you’re a die-hard college fan, it’s just something to keep an eye on. Offenses are played different obviously when they are going against man-to-man. It can free up some space and keep the lane less cluttered.