65 College Basketball Teams In 65 Days: Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a little something I like to call preview season, which by my watch starts on September 1. From that date until the start of the season we have 65 days. In those 65 days I’ll give a team preview each day. There’s going to be no rhyme or reason for the order we go in these 65 days. It will just be 65 teams I think are worthy of a detailed preview. We’ll have other previews throughout the time leading up to the season as well – conference breakdowns, player rankings, team rankings, etc. But, these will just be team previews.

Cincinnati Bearcats

2017-18 Record: 31-5, 15-2 in AAC, 1st in AAC, lost to Nevada in Round of 32
Top returning scorers: Jarron Cumberland (11.5), Cane Broome (7.9), Justin Jenifer (4.8)
Key losses: Jacob Evans (NBA), Gary Clark (NBA), Kyle Washington (graduation)
Newcomers: Logan Johnson (3-star), Rashawn Fredericks (JuCo transfer), Laquill Hardnett (3-star)
Head coach: Mick Cronin, 13th season, 268-140

2018-19 Outlook

We stay in the Cincinnati area today as we go to the Cincinnati Bearcats after previewing Xavier yesterday. This will be an important year for Cincinnati, for a different reason than normal. It doesn’t feel like expectations are as high as last year, but to see how Cincinnati rebounds from the collapse against Nevada in the Round of 32. Even more importantly than that it will be how does Cincinnati look without three of the most important pieces of the Mick Cronin era?

The one thing you do know with this team is they’ll defend their ass off. There’s no doubt about that. That’s always going to be the case with Mick Cronin in charge. I was able to sit just a few feet from him last year during the Wichita State game and all you hear during the game is how much he’s preaching defense and rebounding. Everything you hear about him and his thoughts on that side of the ball is true.

Go take a look at Cincinnati’s defensive numbers from last year. They finished 2nd on KenPom in AdjD, behind only Virginia. They gave up an average of 86.8 points per 100 possessions, which is flat out absurd. They were 5th in block percentage, 25th in steal percentage and 2nd in effective field goal percentage. While Cronin played a large part in that, it was also the fact that Clark was a versatile defender, Washington was strong in the post and Evans was a great wing defender.

One thing of concern on that side of the ball though? Defensive rebounding. Cincinnati was just 156th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage and really was pedestrian, which is a bit weird with how aggressive they are defensively. Now, this is another part where losing Washington and Clark is vital. They were the two best rebounders on the team last year. Can Tre Scott and Nysier Brooks take a big enough step to at least keep Cincinnati average on the defensive side of the ball?

The other thing we’ll see this year – especially when you talk to people around the team – is an expectation of more pressing. Hell, Cronin himself talked about it during interviews this preseason. He thinks this is his fastest team, which means he can get aggressive with his defensive looks. They pressed last year 24% of the time, which is a pretty staggering number. Out of that, they forced turnovers on 24% of possessions. Now imagine, more pressing? You can have Jenifer put pressure on the ball while Trevor Moore fills in on the wing to fly around and trap. It’s going to be fun to watch early on to see how much Cronin lets his team press and jump.

Now comes where the question really lies – and one that people would likely ask when they hear Cincinnati. Who can help out Cumberland offensively? Cumberland is going to be the go-to guy on that side of the ball. He’s the only double-digit scorer to return and is aggressive with the ball in his hands. However, he shot just 33% from three last season. That number needs to improve a bit, especially as the No. 1 option.

People will look at Cane Broome to the be the No. 2 option offensively and while he might be the second most talented offensive player, he has to improve, especially in terms of taking care of the ball. He had a 20% turnover rate last season, while Jenifer only had a 14%. Broome is an excellent shooter and someone who can break the defense down off the bounce, but is battling Jenifer for that starting guard spot.

Now, can the Bearcats find a new offensive gameplan too? Last year they relied on offensive rebounds – 2nd in the nation – and easy putbacks. They didn’t shoot a lot of threes and when they did, they didn’t make them. The Bearcats ranked 230th in 3PA/FGA and 148th in 3pt percentage. That’s typically not the best combo, but they were able to play through Cumberland and Washington with hi-lo sets. That’s gone this year. So what changes? Obviously they aren’t going to be the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country, but will those 3pt numbers go up? Do they let Cumberland attack in ISO sets more?

Ultimately they are still the best team in the AAC heading into the season. However, there should be some challenging times as you expect UConn, Temple, Houston and Wichita to all challenge for that top spot in the conference. They’ll still be a top-40 team during the season and that’s in large part due to trusting Cronin’s defensive coaching ability. That travels. But, this does feel more like a team that will be in that 6-8 seed range opposed to last year’s No. 2 spot.