Let’s just start out by saying that I was one of only a few degenerates on the planet to pick against Barbaro 2 years ago at the Preakness when he went off as the 3-5 favorite. Obviously I didn’t know what would happen 10 seconds into the race but I just had a bad feeling.  However, this year is a completely different story with another heavy favorite, Big Brown. 

On paper this race is setting up perfectly for him to take the first 2 legs of the Triple Crown and then lose the last leg at the Belmont in front of 129,000 Tri-State drunks.

Unlike last year, the 2nd place horse in the Derby is dead and the 3rd and 4th place horses aren’t even running.  Basically your only arguments/stabs in the dark against Big Brown are that A., only 8 favorites have won the Preakness in the last 20 years or that B., for whatever reason the jockey is going to do something stupid (fix?) to cost you the race.  Other than that, you’ve really got nothing to hang your hat on as far as betting against Big Brown. 

So obviously I like him to win the race.  But who do I like to come in 2nd and 3rd and complete the exotics?   Unfortunately there’s no getting past Gayego (8-1) as the 2nd choice.  He had a horrendous trip in the Derby which he just finished 10 minutes ago, however he’s still clearly the 2nd best horse in the race. 

To Show I’m going with this week’s Barstool longshot, the 11 horse - Giant Moon at 30-1. 

Giant Moon is one of those gutty, gritty New York horses who have been running (stuck) all winter at Aqueduct.  Ugh.  I wouldn’t fuck with Giant Moon in a street fight and I like him to run a great race tomorrow on the track.  4th in the Wood Memorial is no joke – either is 4 out of 5 career on Good or Fast tracks.  (He hates the slop, hates it!)  Hey, 2 weeks ago I gave all of America Denis of Cork at 26-1 in the Derby and he hit the board for 3rd, let’s hope Giant Moon can do the same thing tomorrow at the Preakness.

The pick:  Win – Big Brown   Place – Gayego    Show – Giant Moon 4th– Yankee Bravo

Barstool Trifecta lock: 7/12/11