I've given this a lot of thought, poured over the numbers, listened to the pundits, and talked to everyone I've come in contact with. And here's what I've come up with.

Reasons the Patriots can beat the Colts Sunday:

• The Patriots outscored their opponents by 148 points in 2006, the Colts were +67
• The Colts gave up 5.33 yds per rushing attempt, worst in the NFL since 1961
• The Pats had the 5th best rush defense in the NFL and 6th best overall. The Colts were 21st overall.
• The Pats recorded 44 sacks, the Colts had 25.
• Indy were last in the league in opponents 3rd down conversions at 47%.
• New England's defense surrendered 10 passing TDs and had 22 INTs. The Colts had 16 and 15.
• In the red zone, the Pats were 2nd offensively, 3rd defensively. The Colts were 7th and 29th.
• Brady is 10-0 in domes and 13-1 in the playoffs.

Reasons the Colts can beat the Patriots:

• Indy have a really good pass offense.
• Adam Vinatieri is a great kicker.
• "It's Peyton Manning's year."

At least those are the arguments I keep hearing.