The Erin Hills Show; A Full U.S. Open Preview
Hello friends. Brutal rough, player complaints, harsh conditions, a mental and physical grind… it’s U.S. Open week and, although it’s only Wednesday, we’ve already been through much of the stereotypical expectations. Kevin Na started it with this Instagram that I doubt he expected to go so viral..
…Rory countered it with a golf version of “if you can’t run with the big dogs, stay on the porch”…
…and others fell somewhere in between with their own creative inputs…
Hilariously, the USGA listened.
Although they claim they didn’t. They claim the cutting of the fescue was unrelated; that it was a predetermined fate based on weather, rain, and the grass “laying down.”
Yeah, sure. Whatever you say. The bottomline is the USGA suffered back-to-back hits at the last 2 Opens (Chambers Bay greens, DJ’s 2-stroke penalty), they’re at a new property this year, and they’re overly sensitive to negative feedback. As they probably should be. Are these facts contributing to the governing body’s decisions about how to setup the course? Who knows. We report, you decide (aka yes).
Brandel’s made up his mind: “It looks like he [Kevin Na] certainly impacted the decision to go out and mow it. The decision is certainly coincidental. It looks like, and if indeed players hit it in the fescue, Kevin Na is going to have a byline in this championship. If he happens to hit it in there at some point this week, it will be really fun to watch.”
History
The U.S. Open was first staged in Newport, RI, in 1895. It was first won by Horace Rawlins, who took home a $150 check. The event was dominated by Englishmen until 1911. In 1913, youngster Francis Ouimet put American golf, and more specifically American amateur golf, on the map with his famous Open win at The Country Club (Brookline). He’s been deemed the “father of amateur golf” in the U.S. ever since (the event will return to TCC in 2022; you know the Ouimet story best from “The Greatest Game Ever Played”).
What does the U.S. Open mean? Well it’s our national championship. It’s historically the toughest test. And it is, of course, one of golf’s 4 most prestigious prizes. Jack Nicklaus himself recently told Golf Digest, “The U.S. Open was always No. 1 for me. I’m an American, and it’s the championship of my country.” Pretty telling revelation from the GOAT. He could do things god couldn’t even do.
(I’m not sure that shot is relevant here but I wasn’t not going to sneak it into this U.S. Open chatter.)
The event descends upon Wisconsin this year for the first time in its 117-year history (actually began 122 years ago, but was skipped 5 different years during both WWI and WWII). Erin Hills went through the common test of hosting the U.S. Amateur first (2011) before earning a U.S. Open. It passed. Despite a few chirps and videos here and there, which the media — ourselves included — hype up, the field is mostly raving about the course. The greens are reportedly PERFECT.
While the USGA frequently returns its flagship event to traditional sites — Oakmont, Pebble Beach, Shinnecock, Winged Foot, Merion, Baltusrol, etc — it’s also done an effective job at introducing and cementing new hosts. In just the past 20 years, a stretch in which many of us grew into the golf fans we are today, Pinehurst, Bethpage, and Torrey Pines have each gone from first-time hosts to repeat hosts (Torrey will host its second in 2021. Speaking of Torrey, here’s the most clutch putt in the history of the sport…).
The USGA I’m sure hopes Erin Hills will join this recent list. The next new site will be Los Angeles Country Club in 2023.
The Track
Where to start? It’s long. Erin Hills is officially listed at 7,741 yards, but, thanks to above average rainfall, will play even longer. Here is the official scorecard for the week.
Fun to note, 4 years ago the U.S. Open at Merion was played at just 6,996 yards. Justin Rose prevailed at 1-over.
In order to get a little extra insight into the track and what we can expect, I’ve spoken to a guy who’s caddied at Erin Hills for several years. Of the much-discussed “soft conditions,” he says, “The weather forecast isn’t great for the week, but one of the most positive features about the course is how well it naturally drains, so if there is a lot of rain it shouldn’t play as big a factor in softening up the course as people may think.”
People like me of course love carnage. We like to, for this one week a year, see the guys absolutely struggle their way to over-par rounds. It makes us feel good. It’s entertaining. It’s different. But the vibe heading in is that scoring will be a tad more friendly at Erin Hills. Jordan Spieth himself says, “I don’t see par winning the tournament. I see closer to 5- to 10-under.”
And our anonymous caddie friend agrees: “Overall, I know you love the carnage and the goal is about even par but I really think players are gonna be able to score here. The course has been closed for public play since last October but I’ve been on property a few times in the last weeks and the greens are about as pure as possible. Guys will be able to make putts here and if they keep their tee shots straight, as I said before, there’s plenty of holes where birdie is not an enormous ask. Now I hope we have tons of carnage with Kevin Na posting another 16 and that asshole Billy Horschel going home crying, but I really do think the winner will be somewhere around 8-under.”
Relax, buddy… we’ll get to predictions later.
Notable Holes
It’s a U.S. Open and a new course so nearly every hole is notable. If you go to the Fore Play Instagram, we’ve been posting flyovers of every hole for the last week or so. If you’ve got a few minutes, it’s a good time to go through those and get an up-close look at this beast.
Before we get too into specific holes, our caddie takes us through a more general feel of how the rotation plays.
“1,3,5, and 8 all have to be scoring holes on the front 9, while I think that 4 could potentially play as the hardest hole on the course depending upon the wind. The approach shot into that green is insane with it being only about 24 paces deep with steep drop offs front and back. Everyone obviously talks about number 9 with the ridiculously sloped green and bunkers so that will be one to watch for a super high number (hopefully Bubba or Billy Horschel).”
“On the back the players are gonna have to score on 11, 13, 14, 16, and 17.”
“The final stretch from 14 on is going to be super interesting to see what happens. If they put the pin on the far right side of 14 the players are going to hit some crazy second shots into a severely sloped green that could end up with some really close approaches for eagle (very similar to the effect number 12 at Chambers Bay had when Rickie almost holed out off the tee).”
“15 is a short (potentially drivable) downhill par 4 that changed the course of the US Am. when it was held at Erin when Patrick Cantlay blasted his tee shot into the left fairway bunker and pissed the match away. This should make for some awesome risky shots if the tournament is in question down the stretch.”
1st, 608, par 5
An interesting start. Most U.S. Opens have just 2 par-5s, but Erin Hills has 4. That’s good for the players, and a contributing factor to many predicting lower than usual scoring, but they’re not easy. 608 is plenty of earth, and with that hideous fescue constantly lurking, an opening birdie opp turning into a bogey or worse could derail a guy’s tourney real fast.
9th, 165, par 3
Shortest hole out here. The 9th is Erin Hills’ version of the short par 3. Listed at 165, the elevation drop and the forward tees will likely make it play even shorter. But there are a few devilish hole locations on this green, which is the most severe on the property.
Wind will be a huge factor.
18th, 663, par 5
What a closing hole. It’s not particularly often you see a 5-par to end a U.S. Open — Pebble comes to mind, as does Chambers Bay albeit its weird 4/5 swapping — but traditionally, the 72nd hole on Father’s Day is about hanging on.
At 663, that could very well be the case at Erin Hills, but so could birdie or eagle opportunities. Let’s just pray for some drama.
There are many more incredible holes. Don’t be afraid to take some time to check them out.
Clubhouse
My architectural background tells me this thing SCREAMS “Modest Midwestern castle.” Stunning. Plus there are like barns and shit?
Erin Hills Clubhouse grade = 9.99999999.
Weather
Sorry, Phil. (yes I included Monday; too ambitious? #MondayPlayoff)
The Field
Baby watch is over. Paulina had the kid this week. Although there are 77 stairs at Erin Hills, if DJ can avoid those, no reason we shouldn’t expect plenty of this from our defending champ.
It’s the U.S. Open — anybody who’s somebody is here (except Phil… and Tiger). Rory is back from injury and looking and feeling good. Our Masters champ, Sergio Garcia, says he feels pretty loose and confident. Will be interesting to see how he plays without that monkey.
Adam Scott had some choice comments for the USGA last week; will that impact him this week?
Jon Rahm’s everybody’s favorite young gun, and seems allergic to anything other than the front page of leaderboards. He finished T27 at the Masters — will the big hitting Spaniard live up to his enormous expectations this week?
Justin Rose is coming off a Masters playoff loss. Jordan Spieth is… Jordan Spieth. The 2015 champ. Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Jason Dufner, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner… there are so many HIGHLY talented and accomplished players.
This, combined with all the hype about the track, is why I think this will be an incredible week. I think 2017 is going to be a very, very memorable U.S. Open.
And we haven’t even talked about Steve Stricker, the home-state journeyman qualifying after being denied an exemption. The field is delivering, even without the game’s 2 biggest names.
Predictions
It might interest you to know that I correctly predicted Daniel Berger would repeat in Memphis last week. Who’s counting, but that’s 4 correct picks thus far this year. Geaux Riggs.
Winning Score
I have given this much thought. As much as I’m emotionally connected to something with a + sign in front of it, it’s becoming clear that that just won’t happen this year. The course is gettable and the USGA is too scared to “go there” in an effort to protect par.
That’s fine. Each event is unique. I believe -9 wins the 2017 U.S. Open.
Winner
I heard Brandel going on and on about Rickie’s putting and all-around driving and, folks, when you’ve got a U.S. Open course and a course that’s boasting perfect greens, that’s a combo I like.
2017 U.S. Open winner = Rickie Fowler.
The Steven Bowditch Memorial DFL Award
No Bowditch this week. Sad. Now, I could easily pick some no-name guy who’s obviously going to be stuck in struggle city all week. That’d be easy. But we’re not here to track no-namers; we’re here to enjoy the agony of guys we know.
Mike Weir is that guy. He’s only played 2 TOUR events this year, the Masters and the Pebble Pro-Am, and missed the cut in both.
Or so we thought. Turns out he was in the 2016 U.S. Open field but not the 2017 field. Way to go google.
So we’re going to go with Roberto Castro, who’s been on this kinda run.
DFL = Roberto Castro.
Dark Horse
Been going down the rabbit hole a lot lately with how simple and effective PP’s action is. He’s 150-1 and he’s been playing consistently well this year. No. 7 in FedEx Cup standings and has only missed one cut in 18 events this season.
Love Pat Perez for our dark horse.
Here are your betting odds.
Coverage
Fox will be bringing the heat with the Protracer this year. We love the tracer… something we didn’t even really know we were missing until a few years ago.
Of course, Fox and golf aren’t necessarily “tradition” yet.
Baby steps. Here are the times (all times eastern).
Thursday & Friday: 11AM – 6PM, FS1; 6PM – 9PM, FOX (plus some live streaming)
Saturday: 11AM – 8PM, FOX (plus some live streaming)
Sunday: 11AM – 8:30PM, FOX (plus some live streaming)
Final Thoughts
I mean, it’s U.S. Open week. If you’ve read this far, you’re PUMPED.
Enjoy it, folks.