Betting Strategies

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Betting Strategies

Postby AY » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:55 pm

Teams with 60% winning percentages straight up over the last five years.
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Rutgers
South Florida
Iowa
Kansas
Missouri
Nebraska
Houston
Tulsa
Navy
Central Michigan
California
Oregon State
Auburn
Hawaii


Games involving two of the above teams this year(projected underdogs in bold)
9/11 - Georgia Tech at Kansas
9/18 - Clemson at Auburn
10/23 - Georgia Tech at Clemson
10/30 - Cal at Oregon St and Mizzou at Nebraska
11/3 - Rutgers at USF
11/13 - Central Michigan at Navy, Kansas at Nebraska and Tulsa at Houston
11/27 - Kansas at Missouri

Taking the underdog using this strategy over the last 6 years would have given an 82-54-1 record, which would be a 60.3% winning percentage. In other words, a money maker. The only year you would have lost money in the last 6 would have been 2008, but went 13-3 last year.

As you see, the strategy is already 2-0 this year. If you are like me and like to load up on one or two games per weekend the above might be something to consider. The Tulsa at Houston game might be one to avoid due to Houston losing its top 2 QB's and going to a Freshman after last week's game, and I'm going to have to see something more from Kansas before jumping on them, but I'll definitely keep this in mind.
Last edited by AY on Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby AY » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:07 pm

NFL 2 team/6 point teasers

The most value occurs when you can cross as many of the key numbers as possible, which are 3, 4, 6, 7 and 10, with 3 and 7 being the most common of them all.

Tease favorites who are favored by 7 1/2, 8 or 8 1/2. This crosses 4 of the 5 "magical" NFL numbers of 7, 6, 4 and 3, but more importantly crosses the two most common numbers, 3 and 7.

Tease underdogs who are getting 1 1/2, 2 and 2 1/2, which once again gets you past the 3 and 7 point deficits, in addition to the 4 and 6.
"You stay bought into it when you see your opponent sucking air and physically failing, and you're still fit and ready, and you know you own his ass."
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Postby rearadmiral » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:08 pm

Tease(r) = the most aptly named wager in gaming
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Postby AY » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:10 pm

rearadmiral wrote:Tease(r) = the most aptly named wager in gaming


Yep. To further expound on the above, it is recommended that one ONLY teases NFL games if you want to make serious money. There is no other reliable strategy for other sports, including college football.

Of course, we've all won teasers in all sports, but it isn't sound long-term betting strategery.
"You stay bought into it when you see your opponent sucking air and physically failing, and you're still fit and ready, and you know you own his ass."
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Postby vtexposfan » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:32 pm

Teasers are for people who want casino owners to have beachfront property.

Money lines. Two-way parlays when you like the favorite.
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Postby rearadmiral » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:36 pm

I'll bite...

Why just faves?
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Postby JohnCreese » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:20 pm

AY, I'm confused on the first list- maybe I missed something. You say teams that won 60% in 2009. What does that mean exactly?
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Postby AY » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:41 pm

JohnCreese wrote:AY, I'm confused on the first list- maybe I missed something. You say teams that won 60% in 2009. What does that mean exactly?


Teams with winning percentages in the 60-69 percent range over the last five seasons. I need to go back and edit the original post as I didn't realize I had put last season. My bad.

It seems like a quirky formula but the late Mike Lee discovered the formula back in the 80's and it has been a money maker ever since.
"You stay bought into it when you see your opponent sucking air and physically failing, and you're still fit and ready, and you know you own his ass."
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Postby vtexposfan » Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:23 pm

rearadmiral wrote:I'll bite...

Why just faves?


There's no need to get greedy and chase additional value if you already like a 'dog outright. You only have to create value when it doesn't exist.
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Postby TeeDub » Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:33 pm

September 21, 2010. vtexpos makes a good point.


never forget.
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Postby rearadmiral » Fri Oct 08, 2010 2:27 pm

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Postby K-G » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:32 am

Push is a loss. Guy deserves it though if he didn't hedge with that great middle opportunity.
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Postby K-G » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:06 pm

K-G wrote:Push is a loss. Guy deserves it though if he didn't hedge with that great middle opportunity.


What an idiot. http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Toug ... r-73496607
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Postby rearadmiral » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:54 pm

Who else is gonna try to hit a four team, four pro sport parlay on Sunday?

A rare treat.
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Postby Mk » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:43 pm

Happened to have UCLA at 8 for a push but saw this after the game...and it was written yesterday when the line actually was 9.5.

Not very common but this is pretty unreal. I guess pay attention to teams who get crushed on the road on weekday games.

System Play: UCLA +9.5

Play on a Saturday home team (not an underdog of 26+ points) with 7 plus days rest off a non-Saturday road straight-up loss of 25 plus points. This system has a record of 15-0 SU winning by an average of 28.1 ppg and 14-0-1 ATS covering by an average of 16.6 ppg since 2000.

UCLA traveled to Oregon on October 21 and got hammered 63-13. The Bruins return home to face Arizona...which qualifies for the system.

The system has been active twice this season going 2-0. (Winners UTEP and UAB)

This system has been successful in the past but I hope we all understand there are no guarantees in this business. I'm playing the system Saturday. You make your on judgement.
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