NFL

[Pokey Reese]

well he IS an old man

[rearadmiral]

NYJ -6

Rolling the winnings into quarter AR WAS +5/und43.5

Also, CHI +170

Adding CHI -7.5 +425 for a few.

[vtexposfan]

The Monsters dropped to +160 for me...in for a bill after making $490 today.

[mcm]

nice work VT

[rearadmiral]

CHI +3.5/und44.5 parlay and AR

[vtexposfan]

You could give Brandon Jacobs Velcro, and he still couldn't hold the ball.

This game tonight epitomizes my theory: Division games tell us nothing about a team (CHI's 20-17 win over GB last week), it's the conference games (their 17-3 loss to Big Blue tonight) that tell us what we need to know. Chicago got absolutely exposed tonight. Yes, I'm aware that Todd Collins played much of the game. Nonetheless, this game told us how awful the Cowboys really will be in 2010, considering their defeat to Chicago in Week 2.

This game also epitomizes my theory that you don't EVER chase chalk in the NFL. Period. I lost three plays today: Raiders at home (and that was only a TD), my posted parlay (and that was a muffed kickoff return that gave Denver another FG), and this game tonight, which Chicago had every right to win. It's a game of bounces and inches.

Week 4: +$390.

2010: +$1,012.95.

[mcm]

Chicago had every right to win? They played about as bad offensively as an NFL team possibly can. It wasn't as close as the score suggests.

[MCA]

I'm still trying to figure out what, if any, the logic is behind the "don't look at divisional games" theory.

[UconnBuckeye]

wouldn't they count more? seeing as they know more about what kind of team you are

IE Houston knowing how to shove the ball down Indy's throat

[vtexposfan]

Chicago had every right to win? They played about as bad offensively as an NFL team possibly can. It wasn't as close as the score suggests.

Their defense and kicker kept them in the game for three quarters. But you can't win when you play quarterback-go-round, which is what happened in this game, and is something that you can't handicap.

[vtexposfan]

wouldn't they count more? seeing as they know more about what kind of team you are

IE Houston knowing how to shove the ball down Indy's throat

You're making my point. If a team loses a division game, it's sometimes because of familiarity with the opponent. Look at the Browns yesterday. Are we going to anoint them as a Super Bowl contender because they beat the Bengals and their explosive offense? No, because Cleveland knew what was coming. Jacksonville got their lunch handed to them two weeks in a row. Indianapolis comes in, and they win.

What was Cleveland's reward for winning yesterday? Opening at +3 at home against the Falcons next week, a team that did not look all that impressive in their outdoor game at Pittsburgh in Week 1, and had to scrape to beat San Francisco yesterday. You can make an argument against both teams' wins yesterday carrying little weight...yet one team will be at 6-5 odds this Sunday. The book has swung and missed with the opening line here.

Conference games are where a team truly shows its mettle. They're not interconference games, where you see the opponent every four years, or familiar division games. With a conference game taking place sometimes every year (look at the long stretch of NE-IND, and before that, NE-DEN tilts), those are the games in which a team truly shows its ability to learn from past mistakes and draw up a game plan based on the opponents' tendencies.

Considering that Chicago and New York were even on turnovers, that game should have been closer in score. Chicago's defense did their jobs. They just got tired because their putrid offense couldn't keep the defense on the bench. Hard to win when your time of possession is a mere 26 minutes. Chicago got exposed on national television, while the Giants proved that they could take care of business, and perhaps even win the NFC East by default.

[ed]

success in the nfl is predicated on matchups on the field.

individual matchups that are exploited in the framework of a team game.

whether it is a divisional game, conference game, or out of conference game is not really pertinent. of course division games are gonna be close all the time, because these teams draft, and acquire players at positions to stymie their division rivals strengths. plus the fact that they see each other so often, allows the players and coaches to play without the element of surprise.

the colts lost to the jags and texans for many reasons, but mainly because these two teams have exceptional running games, and that plays into the extreme weaknesses of the colts defense. these weaknesses were exploited in earnest.

atlanta had trouble with the 49ers because the niners are very strong up the middle defensively, and that's what atlanta does the best with turner and snelling. when they weren't able to pound these 2 backs, their offense had trouble for most of the game, until superior talent took over at crunch time (roddy white morphed into superman)

the bengals have exceptional corner play, and a good outside pass rush, so the browns attacked them up the middle with great success.

the jets and dolphins have great corners, and that's why the patriots drafted 2 huge tight ends and signed a third. so they could attack these teams at their perceived weaknesses... in the middle of the field. just like when the jets and fish drafted their corners to stop randy moss.

matchups are the key.

[rearadmiral]

Gronk and Woodhead to score first TD, both 12/1 ($2 and $1, respectively).

Game ends in tie, 100/1.

Pats win all 4 quarters, 25/1.

[rearadmiral]

Pats Pick 'em for a unit.

[Mk]

Ova 48