What Teams are Currently Sitting on the Bubble and What They Need for NCAA Tournament Berth
It’s that time of the year to discuss the favorite word in college basketball. Bubble. This year the real debate is how many teams will truly be on the bubble.
So, we’ll take a look at 9 teams as of right now that are truly on the bubble and what they need to do and likelihood of them getting into the NCAA Tournament. This list is in no specific order on who the closest to the bubble is.
I’ll be doing some Bracketology and talking college hoops on Twitter @barstoolreags
1) LSU
This team will probably be talked about the most as an on the bubble team simply because of how god Ben Simmons is. It’s almost incredible to think a team with Simmons and a decent supporting cast has fallen this hard. They can make a major statement tonight beating South Carolina and holding a one-game lead in the SEC over Kentucky. LSU has four games down the stretch over top-50 teams per KenPom, they need to win three of them.
2) Gonzaga
Again, kind of hard to imagine Gonzaga on the bubble before the season started. The Bulldogs had one of the best frontcourts in the country with Wiltjer, Sabonis and Karnowski along with a young, but talented backcourt. However, the season-ending injury to Karnowski seems to be more important that many expect. Sabonis and Wiltjer are both great on the offensive side of the ball, but get torched defensively. Karnowski provided that interior defense and did all the small things as the ultimate ‘glue guy.’ Gonzaga has the best chance on this list to win their conference, thanks to the WCC, but St. Mary’s has already beaten the Zags. Wins against St. Mary’s and BYU to close out the year should be enough to keep them in the tournament.
3) Wisconsin
Kind of crazy to look at Wisconsin here. This team was left for dead after the start of the season. The Badgers lost to Western Illinois, Milwaukee and Marquette all at home. After a 3-game losing streak in conference play, the Badgers have now won 5 consecutive games, including wins over Michigan State and Indiana. Sitting at 14-9 obviously isn’t ideal, but the Badgers get to close with games against Nebraska, Illinois and Minnesota. After that there are 5 games against top-50 teams. Go 3-2 in that and Wisconsin is in. Go 2-3, the Badgers will have to win at least one game against a quality opponent in the Big 10 Tournament.
4) Butler
I was way off on Butler. I thought with the backcourt of Tyler Lewis, Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones the Bulldogs were easily a top-20 team and one of the four best teams in the Big East. Somehow, this team has absolutely fallen apart in conference play with a 5-6 record. Butler can hang their hat on wins over Cincinnati and Purdue in the nonconference, but ideally need to win 2 more games between Seton Hall (home and home), Villanova and Xavier. If Butler gets to .500 in the Big East, I think they should be safe come Selection Sunday.
5) Cincinnati
This was supposed to be the best Cincinnati team under Mick Cronin. They were supposed to finally click on offense with a deep roster and guys that could actually shoot a basketball. Surprise: that didn’t happen. The Bearcats rank 80th in AdjO and 155th in Effective FG%. They don’t have a ton of great wins this season, but they do have wins over UConn, VCU and George Washington. The lucky break for Cincinnati is SMU can’t win the American Tournament. I expect that to come down between UConn and Cincinnati. The Bearcats need to get going offensively and get a couple wins over UConn, SMU and Tulsa to close out the year.
6) Vanderbilt
There’s a trend with these teams. They were all supposed to be good heading into the season only to shit the bed and find themselves fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. Vanderbilt is another team like that. With the inside-outside threat of Damian Jones (an NBA player) and Riley LaChance, the Commodores were expected to score with anyone in the country. They looked the part quick in the Maui Invitational, blowing out St. John’s and Wake Forest (as they should have) before blowing a lead against Kansas. Since then it’s been all downhill, ranking 81st in AdjO. It also seems like every time Vandy gets a quality win, they can’t back it up the next game. Vandy has a weak schedule to close out the season, but a 3-game stretch of Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M. If they go 0-3 in that stretch they are done.
7a) George Washington
7b) St. Joseph’s
The A-10 has 2 teams in for sure. They will likely get a 3rd in, it just depends if it’ll be George Washington or St. Joe’s. Luckily these two teams play tonight in Washington D.C. and the winner will automatically jump the other to be the favorite for that 3rd spot. GWU does have wins over Virginia and Seton Hall, but they also have lost to three teams sub 100 in KenPom. St. Joe’s doesn’t have a bad loss sitting at 19-4, but they don’t have quality wins either. If they can beat George Washington it gives them a 2-game buffer in conference play.
8) Kansas State
The Big 12 could send eight teams to the NCAA Tournament it feels like. The Wildcats are only 3-7 in conference play, which will be the main reason to hold them out of March. However, a recent win over Oklahoma can propel them to a couple more wins the Big 12. They aren’t as bad as teams think at 14-9, with all 9 losses coming to teams ranked 32nd or better. If K-State can go 2-2 against Baylor, Kansas, Texas and Iowa State, their names will start appearing on more Bracketology.
9) Clemson
You want to talk about a weird team sitting at 14-10? Clemson has consecutive wins over Florida State, Syracuse, Louisville, Duke and Miami. The Tigers also have losses to UMass, Minnesota, Georgia and Virginia Tech. They are 7-5 in the ACC, which will go a long way and can rack up a couple more victories against Georgia Tech (twice), Boston College (twice) and North Carolina State. Five more wins gives them 12 in the ACC and a likely top-6 finish. Seems impossible to leave them out at that point considering their quality wins.
ICYMI: I sat down with Clem of Barstool New York to talk some college hoops. We talked about the glory days of the Big East, what food to eat during the NCAA Tournament and his pick for the Final Four: