Preview, Picks and Things to Watch in the Late Sweet 16 Games Tonight

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South Region – Memphis

No. 3 UCLA vs No. 2 Kentucky– 9:35 pm

Announcers: Jim Nantz/Bill Raftery/Grant Hill/Tracy Wolfson

Line: UCLA -1.5

This is the game that everyone circled heading into the week. It should be the most up and down game of the night and certainly features the most NBA prospects. There are five guys that are projected to go in the first round and it wouldn’t shock me if four of them go in the lottery. We saw these two teams earlier in the year – a game UCLA won in Rupp Arena 97-92, which was everyone agrees was one of the most entertaining games all year. Let’s hope for scores up there again. I mean look at the tempo -and insane efficiency – these two teams play at this year:

tempo

When these teams can’t get out and run be prepared to see a lot of pick-and-roll offense. Both teams thrive in running that. Kentucky prefers to use the screen when Fox has the ball and then depending on who sets the screen is what happens. If Bam is coming up to set the screen, it’s a hard roll to the rim while Monk will rotate for a three if there’s cheating on the play. If Willis comes and sets the screen, it’s going to be a pick-and-pop situation where Fox will try to attack the rim knowing the defender hedging has to be careful in leaving Willis. The question will be does Calipari try to take advantage of either Alford or Hamilton when guarding Monk, both of whom struggle in the pick-and-roll to try and get him going?

While it’s all about Lonzo Ball for UCLA on the offensive side, it’s been Thomas Welsh who has killed Kentucky the last two meeting. The Wildcats have yet to find that four that has been able to stick with him in the short corner and up to the elbow. In the game earlier this season, Welsh put up 14/8 on 5-of-7 from the floor. Watch the action in these two plays from earlier in the year – something you’ll see tonight. It starts with bringing TJ Leaf up to the high post. That leaves the right side of the floor pretty open, keeping Bam home there to protect from the drive. Welsh – in both cases – steps out to set the screen for Alford so he can cut across the lane. Notice in the first video though, Alford stop and pins Bam with a screen, leaving Welsh wide open. The second time, we see the switch, where Monk gets stuck on the wrong side of Welsh. He’s able to pin for position and shoot over him.

The 3-point line can actually be an advantage for Kentucky here. The Wildcats are traditionally good at guarding the 3-point line. They rank 63rd in the country in 3PA/FGA defense and 12th in the country in 3-point percentage defense. If they can limit Alford, Ball, Hamilton and Holiday from hitting the insane amount of threes they typically do is something to watch. On the flip side, UCLA struggles guarding the 3-point line. This could be the game Monk gets going.

Matchup to Watch: It’s De’Aaron Fox vs Lonzo Ball. Fox outplayed Ball that first game, so you know the competitor in Ball wants to get the better of Fox here.

Coaching Advantage: There’s not going to be a ton of coaching changes in this game. They want to beat each other getting up and down. The key will be if there’s a defensive change i.e. UCLA going 3-2 zone or Kentucky running their trap, when do they do it. Calipari’s been here before and is undefeated in Sweet 16 games at Kentucky, I’ll give him the edge.

Bench Advantage: Despite the improvement of Dom Hawkins for Kentucky, UCLA gets the advantage here. Aaron Holiday would start at almost any other school.

Pick: This is going *hopefully* to be the game of the tournament. It’s should be easy to watch and free flowing. I like what Kentucky has done defensively the last month or so a little bit more, so I’ll take them with the +1.5.

East Region – New York City

No. 8 Wisconsin vs No. 4 Florida – 9:55 pm

Announcers: Verne Lundquist/Jim Spanarkel/Allie LaForce

Line: PK

Both these teams are coming off damn impressive performances. Wisconsin beating the reigning national champs – and not just that, but come back from down seven with 5:30 to go while Florida held Virginia to 39 points. I don’t care who you play, holding a team to less than a point per minute is impressive. This game will be decided on Florida’s defense on the interior and if they can run against Wisconsin. The Gators want to pressure your guards, force the offense to start a good distance away from the hoop and just disrupt what you’re trying to do. They haven’t had to play a big like Happ in the Tournament yet. Without having John Egbunu available for this game, the depth for Florida and the ability to guard both Hayes and Happ will be questioned. Now, I say that with a little bit of a grain of salt because it all depend what Nigel Hayes shows up. He was terrific against Villanova, especially late in the game when he went into the post. But, there are times this season when Hayes can drift to the wing and that’s exactly where teams want to dare him to beat you. While Florida is a great defensive team (3rd in the country) they want to get out and run:

Wisco tempo

While I fully expect Wisconsin to limit Florida’s transition, can the Wisconsin guards stay in front of the athletic, quick guards/wings that Florida has? That has been the one weakness for Wisconsin on the defensive side of the ball as Florida’s wings – especially KeVaughn Allen can beat you both in catch-and-shoot or off the bounce situations. Bronson Koenig will have to stay in front of guys like Kasey Hill and Chris Chiozza to limit breakdowns in the lane. Expect to see Florida swing the ball and use a high ball screen on the wings more than at the top of the key. Here’s a breakdown of plays run this season by each team:

Plays

Matchup to Watch: I’m not sure who Wisconsin will put on Robinson, but I’ll guess Nigel Hayes vs Devin Robinson here and Gard will put Brown on Leon.

Coaching Advantage: Both are ‘new’ coaches and while Mike White has exceeded expectations already at Florida, I’ll give the slight edge to Greg Gard here.

Bench Advantage: Both teams really only go 7 deep but will play Pritzl and Gak for some minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a good amount of Trice for Wisconsin just to give them another ball handler against Florida’s pressure. But, I’ll go Florida here as I like Chiozza and Barry just a little bit more.

Pick: Another expected great game, I’m going to go Florida here. I think their guards will be able to pressure just enough that Bronson Koenig can’t hit another massive shot late in the game.