Sox Offenders

Typically, we save the prognosticating for people who know better. Like Nostradamus, Dick Albert, or that Seacrest fellow. But as the beginning of a new baseball season represents a clean slate, we feel it our responsibility to help dirty up that slate with our own unsubstantiated and quite frankly drug-induced thoughts on how the Red Sox season will look. So here we go.

The Boston Red Sox Will Win The AL East
Homerism? You bet your sweet ass! But with their low-key maneuvers over the off-season, the Sox will be operating under far less pressure than their brothers-in-arms in the Bronx. And the fact that last year's team, ragtag and beat-up as it was, clawed its way to within one game of the World Series bodes well for a 2009 team that can stay healthy.

Why: Their off-season moves might not have been as splashy as New York's, but clever folks who talk loudly in restaurants can see that the low-risk, potential high reward signings of the likes of Brad Penny and John Smoltz neatly complement existing strengths. And if pitching is truly the key to winning the AL East, I'd take Professors Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Penny and Wakey--not to mention our Saito-fortified bullpen--seven days a week and twice on Sunday.

The "ifs": Of course, all that pitching won't matter if we can't push a couple runs across each game. Key to our success will be David Ortiz reverting to the ball-jacking, ninth-inning-parade-inducing bad-ass he was in the 2004-2007 salad days. With whispers of steroids and aging and how he just can't cut it without Manny's bat close-by, it's safe to bet the guy's aiming for a monster season to prove us all wrong. Can he do it? Are you gonna tell him he can't? A healthy J.D. Drew – that doesn’t even sound right, does it? - and Mike Lowell could certainly make difference, but it's almost impossible to count on them for an entire season. Unfortunately, the two most able-bodied replacements for these gents, Rocco Baldelli and Mark Kotsay, come with their own medical uncertainties. Also, after last year's scuffling and off-season contract negotiations that went down about as awkwardly as a first date boob grab, Jason Varitek's gonna need to be a little less Chinese Democracy and a little more Appetite for Destruction to justify that C on his chest in my book. Watching him flail away at the plate almost put me in an early grave during the 2008 post-season, and as much as his teammates are saying all the right things about how thrilled they are to have him back, I hate to see such a glaring hole in the line-up.

The Sure Things: Papelbon will be Papelbon, which means the legend of his awesome will evolve to the point that he should be fitted for some of those rasslin' pants with "Thump" written across the ass like the Junkyard Dog used to wear. In addition to his flashy, fist-pumping saves, Papelbon will undoubtedly provide the masses with an unending supply of quotable quotes delivered in the way that only Paps can. Dustin Pedroia will continue to talk trash to anyone with one or more good ears, and tear it up with the bat. Youk will invoke the holy trinity of timely hitting, stellar fielding and terrifying facial hair to fuck his enemies' shit up. And don't let his new, clean-shaven appearance fool you; Youk's beard is bigger than all of us. If it wants to come back, it will, regardless of what Youk himself wants. Something else to be certain of: I won't make it through Jim Rice Appreciation Night without crying. And neither will you.

Not-So-Bold Predictions: Pedroia will earn back-to-back MVPs. Lester will be elected Mayor of Quincy. Rocco Baldelli will have 37 blogs dedicated to him by the All-Star Break and at least 15 commercial endorsement deals – not the least of which will be Vinnie’s Pawn and Barber shop in Providence. Josh Beckett, never one to rest on his impressive laurels (two World Series titles, Leeann Tweeden, etc), is due for a monster season after health woes heralded a surprisingly un-Beckett-like showing in 2008 (most important figures to remember: Josh's 2007 ALCS ERA: 1.93; Josh's 2008 ALCS ERA: 9.64). And even though he's no longer with the team, don't discount the possibility of Julian Tavares showing up pantsless in the locker room.

The Bold Prediction: Julio Lugo is going to have THE season. The type of season on which future Sox shortstops will be judged. "Lugo would have had that!" will be a familiar refrain throughout the 2010, 2011 and 2012 seasons. Hell, even in 2013, when robot players are the norm, we'll look back fondly on Lugo's 2009 exploits. Also, Amalie Benjamin will finally take me up on my standing offer of dinner at the Union Oyster House, followed by six hours of snogging behind the IHOP in Brighton.

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