Sensing a Triple Crown?: Barstool Preakness Preview
Barstool Preakness Preview
In the past 15 years, the two most memorable Preaknesses may very well have been the last two. In 2005, Afleet Alex avoided absolute disaster by overcoming a hip-check from Scrappy T around the final turn; then last year when unfortunately, we HAD absolute disaster as Derby winner, Barbaro, was forced to pull up lame. This year I’m expecting another memorable race, but hopefully not for the same reason we saw in ’06.
For the non-degenerates in the audience who may be unfamiliar with some of the specifics of the race; the Preakness is a mile and 3/16ths – exactly 110 yards shorter than the mile and 1/4 Kentucky Derby. So figure a Devin Hester kickoff return, including the endzone celebration, as the difference between the Derby and the Preakness. But what makes the second leg of the Triple Crown so challenging is that horses that ran in the Derby only have a 2 week layoff, as opposed to their usual 3-5. In baseball terms, it’s like a pitcher throwing on 2 days rest. So conditioning will play a major role in determining the outcome of the race.
Onto the picks…
Now unlike the Derby where we had a line of horses longer than the Bell n’ Hand on a Saturday night, the field for the Preakness (as of Monday) only appears 8 deep. We’ve got the top 3 horses from the Kentucky Derby: Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin; to go along with 5 non-Derby runners in King of the Roxy (Pletcher horse, ran 2nd at the Santa Anita), CP West (Zito horse, 2nd in the Withers), Flying First Class (Lukas horse, won Derby Trial), Xchanger (token longshot who loves Pimlico) and Mint Slewlep (token longshot named after booze, i.e. Malibu Moonshine in ‘05.)
Right off the bat we can eliminate the non-Derby runners; they’re all outclassed here. And if history is any guide, we know that it’s extremely rare for a non-Derby starter to take home the Preakness. Granted last year Bernardini did it, but A., I don’t see any “Bernardini’s” in this year’s non-Derby crop, and B., I think an asterisk is appropriate next to last year’s race because of what happened to Barbaro. (Although many say Bernardini would’ve beaten Barbaro that day anyway with a 113 Beyer; obviously we’ll never know.)
So basically, you’re rolling the dice, something I’m normally not opposed to, but REALLY rolling the dice on Saturday by betting any of the 5 non-Derby runners to win the race. The question now becomes, with only the 3 top selections left to choose from - how the f*ck do we make money on the race?
Good question.
Well even though it’s not as exciting, sometimes as a gambler you just have to take what the defense gives you. Trust me, there’s going to be a lot of donkeys betting those 5 other horses -- just like in the Derby when people were actually throwing money on horses like Bwana Bull and Cowtown Cat. Same thing will happen in the Preakness, as in any big race, so we’ll still be able to make a few bucks, even by betting favorites.
Race analysis:
Well conventional wisdom says that since the Preakness is a shorter, more speed favoring race than the Kentucky Derby, Hard Spun would be the logical choice. But unfortunately, for those like my grandmother who backed Hard Spun in the Derby and most likely will be firing away again on Saturday, I think that’s the wrong move.
Unlike the Derby where Hard Spun went practically unchallenged on the lead for the first mile of the race, the amount of speed in this race should prevent that happening. Longshots Xchanger and Flying First Class will both be out there contesting Hard Spun around the backstretch, forcing him to exude more energy then jockey Mario Pino might like. He may get the lead making the turn, but it ain’t gonna be easy.
This sets up a stretch duel between Street Sense (probable odds: Even) and Curlin (probable odds: 3-1).
As far as Curlin, his 3rd place finish in the Derby had more to do with his post-position than inexperience. Looking back, I never would’ve picked him to win in the 3rd Annual Barstool Sports’ Kentucky Derby Spectacular if I had known he was coming out of the 2-hole, and frankly, will probably lead to some changes in the writing of future Spectaculars. That said, considering the traffic problems he encountered, Curlin’s 3rd place finish was respectable, and certainly surprised a lot of people. The talent is still there with this horse; I think you can expect an even better showing at Pimlico.
Which takes us to the favorite, Street Sense, who will probably go off around Even odds, maybe 4-5. Now clearly he had the trip of all trips in the Derby, as the rail opened up wider than Paris Hilton's legs her first night out of prison. Some people (not me) have even suggested the race was fixed based on how easy it was for longtime Churchill rider, Calvin Borel, to make the lead with Street Sense coming from 19th place early on. If he was forced to go wide, hey, he might have won anyway – once again, we don’t know.
But as far as the Preakness on Saturday, I think it’s quite a stretch to be picking against Street Sense in this spot. (Keep in mind I picked against Barbaro last year, so it’s not like I’m addicted to chalk in this race.) With Hard Spun (and others) setting the pace once again, I expect almost a carbon copy of Street Sense’s performance in the Derby – coming from off the pace (not 19th) as he passes Hard Spun at the top of the lane.
A model of consistency – I just can’t imagine a regression here from this horse. Street Sense is now 8 for 8 career in the money and has proven himself multiple times against the top 3 year olds in the country. I expect him to win on Saturday, putting him one step away from the Triple Crown.
Official Preakness Trifecta: Win - Street Sense. Place – Curlin. Show – ALL.
Good luck and enjoy the race.