Ranking The Major’s Real Most Valuable Players
I was in the sun for about an hour this past weekend and ended up with a second degree burn which means one thing: it’s almost time for WEEI to be inundated with insane Red Sox trades. Without fail, once the temperature hits 80º, every yahoo is convinced that the Devil Rays would trade Scott Kazmir for Willie Harris and Rudy Seanez.
To give those wackos some perspective, I’ve ranked the trade value of the top 50 major league baseball players. I am completely stealing this idea from Bill Simmons who has compiled a list of the NBA’s most valuable players the past several seasons but (as far as I know) hasn’t tackled baseball. Though Simmons’ rules for determining his rankings are helpful- the age of players is equally important in both sports- baseball is an entirely different type of monster.
First, positions matter more. A talented young pitcher will most likely have a higher trade value than a talented young outfielder. A talented catcher trumps a talented second baseman. With eleven positions to worry about (eight position players, starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and designated hitter), major league executives and coaches have less wiggle room than their NBA brethren. Terry Francona can’t decide to go “offense first” and put Wily Mo Pena at shortstop to get his bat in the lineup. MLB’s rosters are bigger, the players are more often than not limited to one position which is why certain positions- catcher, shortstop, starting pitcher- have more value than ones with transferable skills- outfield, first base, third base.
Salary doesn’t matter. With no salary cap to worry about, individual salaries don’t matter. Jonathan Papelbon doesn’t have more trade value than Josh Beckett simply because he makes millions less.
Marketing does matter. Some players are more popular which in turn makes those players more valuable to their respective teams. Marketing wasn’t a major issue- hitting is more important than how a player looks in front of the camera- but it became a factor when two or three players were battling for one spot. David Ortiz, for example, gets a slight bump because his national popularity makes him such a valuable asset for a franchise.
Fourth, potential and production need to be balanced. In no other sport are phenoms and rookies so revered as in baseball. Hanley Ramirez looks like the real deal but does he necessarily get the edge over Michael Young just because he’s seven years younger? Will Ramirez’s next ten years be that much better than Young’s next five? Age is obviously a factor- MLB players over 35 weren’t even considered for the rankings- but with hundreds of minor league players and an amateur draft that has about 300 rounds, baseball teams always have young players in the pipeline. The Marlins may have a new shortstop prospect by next year who eventually forces Ramirez to change positions. By contrast, the NBA’s small rosters and lack of a real minor league means that once you have a point guard, it’s likely a decade before the team’s management has to worry about drafting his replacement.
Injury history matters. Derrick Lee’s injury- not a major concern. But his perpetually injured Cubs’ teammates Mark Prior's and Kerry Wood’s frequent trips to the DL- a major concern.
Current players on current teams don’t matter. For example, if Victor Martinez is ranked higher than Josh Beckett, don’t dwell on the fact that Jason Varitek is already on the Sox’s roster. Assume for these rankings that there aren’t any potential position battles.
Only players on a major league roster as of May 29th were ranked. Players like Craig Hansen and B.J. Upton would be highly ranked based on their potential but with an additional hundred players to rank, I would probably have slit my wrists halfway through the rankings.
Finally, please suspend reality. This is just a ranking. The Yankees aren’t trading Derek Jeter. The Sox aren’t trading David Ortiz. The Mariners aren’t trading Felix Hernandez. Just pretend, that you are the GM. Hypothetically, would you trade Player A for Player B if you didn’t have to worry about the player’s popularity, your fan base or the media reaction.
With all the formalities out of the way, here is the ranking of the 50 players in major league baseball with the highest trade value. The breakdown by position ended up being 17 starting pitchers, 3 relief pitchers, 4 first basemen, 0 second basemen, 5 third basemen, 7 shortstops, 8 outfielders, 3 catchers and 3 designated hitters/ utility players. Again, I didn’t consider players over 35 because, one, high caliber players over 35 are so rare, and two, few if any general managers would trade a talented 25-year old for a 35-year old, no matter how good the older player was.
Players who missed the cut in no particular order: Manny Ramirez, Coco Crisp, Robinson Cano, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, Morgan Ensberg, Eric Gagne, Carlos Lee, Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Crosby, Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, Rocco Baldelli, Alfonso Soriano, Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Bellhorn.
50. Eric Chavez (28 years old)- Solid offense and defense.
49. Hanley Ramirez (22)- Great first season. Will he haunt Theo for years to come?
48. Huston Street(22)- Young closer has the goods but it’s a volatile position.
47. Ichiro Suzuki (32)- Suzuki’s a five tool player, the consummate professional and doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
46. Michael Young (29)- Young has been one of MLB’s best for several years. In Rangers’ young and talented lineup, he should produce for years.
45. Mark Teixiera (26)- Slugger should be bashing homeruns for a long time.
44. Ben Sheets (27)- #1 starter has battled injuries. Can he stay healthy?
43. Lance Berkman (30)- Outfielder hits for power and average.
42. Jason Bay (27)- Canuck has all the tools.
41. Carl Crawford (24)- Crawford’s speed and athleticism sets him apart from his colleagues.
40. Miguel Tejada (30)- Tejada’s leadership a boost.
39. Derek Jeter (31)- Should be breathing down Pete Rose’s neck by the end of his career.
38. David Ortiz (30)- Papi’s only limited by his one dimensional game.
37. Zach Duke (23)- Young lefty may not get wins but has undeniable talent.
36. Aramis Ramirez (27)- Third baseman can hit with anyone.
35. Matt Holliday (26)- Young outfielder enjoying breakout year.
34. Ryan Howard (26)- Will be killing pitches in Philly for next 15-years.
33. Chris Capuano (27)- Not a big name, but has a big game. And he’s a Masshole which is always a plus.
32. Conor Jackson (24)- Young hitter has all the tools to be longtime All-Star.
31. Vernon Wells (27)- Centerfielder does it all for Blue Jays.
30. Andruw Jones (29)- Power hitter who plays Gold Glove caliber centerfield.
29. Derrick Lee (30)- Recent injury dropped him farther down list than if he was healthy.
28. Roy Oswalt (28)- Throws absolute gas.
27. Barry Zito (28)- Lefty is a proven winner.
26. Josh Beckett (26)- Big game pitcher who isn’t afraid of pitching on the game’s most pressure-packed stage.
25. Josh Willingham (27)- Youngster appears headed for stardom- once he settles on a position.
24. Justin Verlander (23)- Talented young pitcher has two solid months under his belt but good young pitching is the game’s most valuable commodity.
23. Russell Martin (23)- Dodgers’ catcher of the future has every tool.
22. Jose Reyes (22)- Has grown into a complete player. One of the most exciting players in the game, his speed makes him a force defensively and on the bases.
21. Jake Peavy (24)- Frontline pitcher with all the pitches. Will be a #1 starter for a very long time.
20. Roy Halladay (29)- Halladay’s age makes him a bigger risk than some of the young guns around him, but he’s an absolute horse. Hard to see him not pitching until he’s 40.
19. Brandon Webb (27)- Putting together a Cy Young caliber season.
18. Dontrelle Willis (24)- Stuck in a miserable situation in Florida. On a decent team, his ability and energy would make him a perennial Cy Young prospect.
17. Grady Sizemore (23)- Young centerfielder appears headed for MVP’s and more. At only 23, already among the game’s most complete players.
16. Ryan Zimmerman (21)- Just started to drink and already one of the game’s brightest prospects. Maturity makes him even more attractive.
15. Prince Fielder (22)- Absolutely crushes the ball. A better hitter than his father, his ability to hit for average and get on base makes him even more dangerous.
14. Francisco Rodriguez (24)- The only thing holding him back is the short shelf life for most closers. Ready to replace Mariano Rivera as the most dominant closer in baseball.
13. Jonathan Papelbon (25)- Papelbon’s value is based in large part on his versatility. Right now, he’s one of the game’s best closers but the youngster could eventually become one of the game’s best starters.
12. Victor Martinez (27)- With his best years ahead of him, Martinez can solidify his claim to the title of baseball’s best catcher.
11. Alex Rodriguez (30)- Forget all the issues constantly swirling around him, at just 30, ARod has at least a decade of productivity in front of him.
10. Joe Mauer (23)- A 23-year old catcher who projects to be a future MVP is hard to pass up.
9. Felix Hernandez (20)- Struggling this season but the sky is the limit for Hernandez. Probably already ranks among the top 10 pitchers in baseball in terms of just pure “stuff.”
8. Rich Harden (24)- Complete pitcher who will be an ace for a very long time. His composure on the mound makes him doubly valuable.
7. C.C. Sabathia (25)- Often overlooked when discussing the game’s best pitchers, Sabathia is putting together a Cy Young season. A big lefty who throws gas, he has a decade of strikeouts left in his arm.
6. Johan Santana (27)- His changeup keeps hitters up at night. As complete a pitcher as there is in baseball. His age is the only thing keeping him out of the top 5.
5. Carlos Zambrano (24)- While Mark Prior and Kerry Wood have toured the Cubs’ minor league teams during their never-ending rehab stints, Zambrano has become on of the major’s best pitchers. And he’s only 24.
4. Miguel Cabrera (23)- Youngster has positional versatility and can flat-out rake. Already a veteran at just 23, Cabrera should be playing at an MVP-level for the next 15-years.
3. David Wright (23)- The Prince of New York has the goods. And the fact that he can succeed in the pressure cooker that is New York is a big plus in his favor.
2. Scott Kazmir (22)- At 22, he may already be the American League’s best pitcher. Imagine him on the Red Sox or Yankees? He could win 30-games.
1. Albert Pujols (26)- The game’s best hitter. Impossible to get out. Hits for power and average and on pace to shatter records. With the modern era’s conditioning and medical advantages, no reason to think he slows down until he’s pushing 40.