Puck Talk

Welcome to the 2nd annual preview and prediction show for the first round of the NCAA hockey tournament. Last year we handed in a 6-2 record in this space on the way to an impressive overall mark of 22-6 for all of our published postseason selections. To paraphrase Coach Dale, that kind of performance deserves and commands your respect. So, with that in mind, let’s dive into the 2005 field…

Mercyhurst (18-15-4) vs. Boston College (25-6-7): The Lakers are a nice story coming out of the Atlantic Hockey league tournament on the strength of back-to-back overtime wins over Holy Cross and Quinnipiac to lock up the automatic NCAA bid. On February 18th they lost 4-3 to UConn in overtime to fall to 10-15-4. It was their 10th one goal loss of the season and, I’m sure, making the NCAA tournament was the furthest thing from their minds. But from that point on they rattled off 8 straight wins, which included four one-goal games, to turn their season around. They’ll come into their 3rd NCAA game in 5 years now feeling good and, facing a team from Hockey East, will have absolutely nothing to lose. Stranger things have happened, right?
Not this time. Boston College is going to win the game. The #1 seed in the East also comes in a roll, going 6-0-2 down the stretch to wrap up both the Hockey East regular season and tournament championships. The Eagles have been among the toughest teams to score against all year and, with undefeated freshman goalie Cory Schneider in net, you have to like their chances against anyone. The injury to Patrick Eaves in the Hockey East tourney was a big blow and they’ll certainly want him back in the lineup soon. But they’ve got enough up front without him to take care of business here. And that reminds me…Ryan Shannon’s lob pass over the top of the defense to send Collins in alone the other night against Maine was the best pass I’ve seen all year. Just thought I’d throw that in there.

Prediction: BC 5-1.

North Dakota (22-14-5) vs. Boston University (23-13-5): In my mind, this is the most difficult first-round game to handicap. Both teams have been very good at times. Both teams have had their struggles. Both teams rely on a lot of underclassmen. Both teams start talented sophomores in net. Honestly, you can analyze just about any way you want but it’s basically a toss-up. North Dakota’s got as much raw talent as anyone in the country. They’ve got Drew Stafford who played on the US Junior National team. He’s a terrific player. The two freshmen forwards they’ve got, Spirko and Zajac, are both solid. And Parise, the goalie, is one of the best young keepers in the game. What I can’t quite figure is that, for all that talent, mixed with a handful of experienced seniors, how do you lose 14 games? At one point early in the year the Sioux were ranked #1 in the nation but a disastrous 1-5-1 stretch around Thanksgiving, plus an identical 1-5-1 stretch in January, saw them fall all the way to the brink of NCAA elimination. Which Sioux squad shows up in Worcester remains to be seen.

As for BU? Again, who knows which BU team will show up against North Dakota? If it’s the team that showed up against UNH in the Hockey East semifinals they can absolutely forget about advancing past the first round. I can tell you that. Here’s Jack Parker unplugged after the loss: "That was a sad performance by the Boston University hockey team," Terriers coach Jack Parker said. "It was beyond belief how poorly we played in every phase of the game. We looked inept on the power-play rush, inept on our forecheck. We looked slow, back on our heels. It was just unbearable to watch. Pretty straight to the point. I think they’ll give a much better account of themselves on Friday night though. Curry’s been solid in net for them all year and I think he’ll give them a chance to win again. The question is whether they can find a way to score some goals. There are times, and it’s been that way lately, where it just seems like such a struggle for them to finish their chances. I think they’ll get a couple against the Sioux and I think it’ll be enough. Barely.

Prediction: BU 2-1 in a game that could go either way.

Bemidji State (23-12-1) vs. Denver (28-9-2): Denver is the defending national champion. They split the WCHA regular season title with Colorado College and beat them 1-0 in the WCHA title game. They’re currently ranked #2 in the country. Bemidji State is nicknamed the Beavers.

Prediction: Denver 6-2

Harvard (21-9-3) vs. UNH (25-10-5): Typical UNH team. When they play well they’re probably the most entertaining team to watch in all of college hockey. Two terrific lines. Second highest scoring team in the country behind Michigan. Second best power play behind Cornell. The problem, as always, is defense. While the Cats aren’t exactly inept in their own end it’s definitely not their strong suit. Witness their 9-8 loss to Dartmouth and 7-0 loss to Lowell. They don’t have a true #1 goalie which never makes me feel great. They’ve got plenty of NCAA experience but then so does Harvard. Speaking of which… As bad memories go, blowing a 4-1 in the 3rd period of an NCAA tourney game has to rank right up near the top for a hockey team. That’s the game that’s been living with the Crimson all year long. Now they’re back. And, for once, they didn’t have to rely on a huge postseason run to get in. Harvard earned their spot with a quietly strong regular season that included wins over BC, BU & Maine. Now they get a chance to avenge last year’s disaster with a win over Hockey East’s other big gun. I think Teddy Donato’s men will get it done.

Prediction: Harvard 4-2.

Colgate (25-10-3) vs. Colorado College (29-8-3): I haven’t seen Colgate play all year but I’ve seen Colorado College a handful of times and they’re as good as any team in the country. Right now you’ve got to give Denver a little psychological edge over them for having the upper hand in their head-to-head match-ups in the last few years but that’s a problem for another day. I don’t see them having any problem with Colgate.

Prediction: Colorado College: 5-2.

Wisconsin (23-13-4) vs. Michigan (30-7-3): Terrific first-round match-up between two of college hockey’s all-time superpowers. They played back in November in a game Wisconsin won 3-1 but things have changed a lot since then. The Badgers come limping in to the party, having won only 3 of their last 13 games. Michigan, meanwhile, is 12-0-2 in their last 14. I have to go with the hot hand.

Prediction: Michigan 4-2.

Maine (20-12-7) vs. Minnesota (26-14-1): Gopher fans are an odd lot. I trolled around the uscho.com message boards to get a feel for their psyche heading into this one and the comments were all over the map. If you spent enough time listening to the different concerns you’d swear they were playing Soviet Red Army team this week instead of a Maine team that barely won 20 games. Gopher fans are definitely concerned about the state of their goaltending which is not a good sign in the postseason. They’re worried about one of their best forwards being out. They’re worried about their draw. They’re worried about everything short of a tornado striking the rink. Just about all of them think they can win but it’s always qualified with stuff like “the one thing they may have going for them is an ‘us against the world’ mentality.” Whatever that means. Us against the world? They’re a #1 seed playing at home. But I do see where they’re coming from. 14 losses in an awful lot for #1 seed. They haven’t beaten a good team in over a month. There’s absolutely no question Maine has the ability to go in there and beat them. They’ve got plenty of postseason experience and always seem to play well in March. Problem is…I’m just not crazy about this Maine team. They can’t score goals. Their power play stinks out loud. They haven’t won more than three games in a row all season. That’s hard to believe. They’ve got to play a road game at Minnesota on an Olympic-sized sheet of ice which would be fine if it was the Paul Kariya-Jim Montgomery, 42-1-2 Black Bears instead of a team that relies on dumping and chasing and scoring ugly goals for offense. But Maine does have Jimmy Howard in net and he’s more than capable of stealing them a game. If he stands on his head, Maine wins. Otherwise, I’m going with the Gophers.

Prediction: Minnesota 3-1.

Ohio State (27-10-4) vs. Cornell (26-4-3): Very tough draw here for Cornell. The Big Red are 19-1-1 in their last 21 games and lost fewer games than anyone in the nation. The reward for that is a trip west to play a scrappy Ohio State team and then, possibly, Minnesota in their own building. The big ice surface doesn’t really play into their hands either. Cornell’s a big, physical team that likes to play along the boards. They don’t really want a wide-open game. But I like this team a lot. A lot of them were on the team that went to the final four (or frozen four if you prefer-I hate that term myself) two years ago. They’ve got a big gun in Moulson. They’ve got a great goalie in McKee. And I think they’ll be playing with a little chip on their shoulder too.

Prediction: Cornell 3-0.

Questions? Comments? Please send feedback to Michael James at feedback@barstoolsports.com