NFL Picks
Umm, I think it’s safe to say that last week was fairly disappointing for the Stool as we went a whopping 0-5 vs. the spread. Not good. And I’d like to sit here and talk about how we’re due for a huge bounce back week and what goes up must come down, blah, blah, blah. But the truth of the matter is I’m scared and I’m rattled. It’s no coincidence that the fact we have struggled recently has coincided with the fact that that Patriots have lost back to back games for the first time this millennium. I’m not going to lie to you; everything that I stand for not only in the NFL but in life is based on the Patriots being virtually unbeatable. Therefore, when they lose to the Colts and Jets in consecutive weeks at home, I’m shaken to the core. I mean it wouldn’t surprise me if it didn’t get dark out tonight or if Tom Brady came out of the closet this week. I mean I just don’t know what to think anymore. I guess the only thing I can do is soldier on trying to make sense out of this new world.
Season Record – 18-18
Last Week 0-5
Mortal Lock Record 5-3
Atlanta at Baltimore -6
Well, Michael Vick went from shitty to the MVP of the league and back to shitty in three short weeks. God only knows who will show up this time? I’m going to bet on the good Michael Vick to show up at Baltimore. The Ravens are playing pretty good football lately but I feel like they are always better as an underdog than as the favorite. Also, this is a desperation game for the Falcons. If they don’t win this week than they are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs. Desperation usually wins in the NFL.
The Pick – Atlanta
Chicago at Jets +5
This is the battle of two teams coming off huge victories. The Jets obviously beat the Pats and shook up my world while the Bears went into the Meadowlands and beat the Giants. The Bears are a weird ass team, right? I mean one week they look totally unstoppable and then the next week they are losing to the Dolphins or Cardinals. I think the real answer is that they are somewhere in between. I don’t think they’ll be able to string together two monster games in a row and the Jets will give them everything they can handle here. By the way if the Jets actually win this game the race is officially on in the AFC East which is flat out shocking.
The Pick – Jets
Cincinnati at New Orleans -3
I think you can close the book on the Bengals after they blew a 28-7 lead vs. the Chargers last week. And if the Bengals do fail to make the playoffs they have to go down as the most disappointing team in the NFL this year. Meanwhile the Saints are coming off an almost equally devastating loss to the Steelers after battling back from an early 14-0 deficit to take the lead only to fuck it up in the end. This match up promises to be another high scoring affair as both teams feature explosive offenses and defenses that couldn’t stop a pop Warner team. Anyway, I like the Saints in this game. At some point in the season you are what you are. And for the Bengals that means they are a mediocre football team. Even though the Saints lost last week, they did prove something to me and that is that they are pretty freaking good. Pretty freaking good beats mediocre every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Minnesota at Miami -4
The Dolphins are doing the same exact thing that they did last year which was suck it up in the first half of the season and then finish strong. I wonder if Sports Illustrated already has them penciled in as their Super Bowl Champs for next year? On the other side of the coin the Vikings are doing the exact opposite of the Dolphins. They started strong and are now playing their worst football of the year. Last week the Packers went into Minnesota and handled them without too much difficulty. And if anybody knows anything about Brett Favre they know he always struggles at the Metrodome. But not last week. That should be a major red flag for the Vikings. I don’t see any way they turn this thing around against the Dolphins as the Miami juggernaut roles along for its 3rd consecutive meaningless yet impressive victory.
Mortal Lock – Miami
Pats at Green Bay +6
For the first time in a long time I actually think the smart play is to bet against the Patriots this week. The Packers have been playing pretty well lately and the Pats have obviously been playing pretty badly. Now let’s clear something up. I never bet against the Patriots. So even though I like Green Bay here it’s not even a debate on whether I’m taking the Packers. The only question is whether I’m going to bet on this game at all. And the answer is yes. The reason is because I’ve taken it up the ass the last two weeks with the Pats and I want to be there when they finally cover their next game. And I know if I don’t bet on them this week they’ll win big and I’ll sneaky be pissed that I didn’t bet on it. So even though I don’t think they are going to cover, I’m taking them anyway as an insurance policy just in case they do. Does that make any sense to anybody who doesn’t gamble? It can’t.
The Pick - Pats