NFL Picks
Season Record – 15-10
Last Week 3-1
Mortal Lock Record 4-2 (Should Be 5-1)
Pro football is a cruel game. Last week according to my records, I went 4-0. Unfortunately according to the NFL official scorer and my bookie I went 3-1. The discrepancy came in the Bengals vs. Bucs game in which I took the Bengals as my mortal lock -5 pts. The Bengals were clinging to a 6 pt lead late in the 4th quarter as the Bucs were trying to drive for the game winning TD. That’s when the Bengals sacked rookie QB Brad Gradkowski and recovered the ensuing fumble to seal the victory and my perfect day. (Not to mention I bet the 2nd half under and that sealed that victory as well.) Unfortunately for me and everything that is right about the world, the refs somehow called Justin Smith of the Bengals for roughing the passer which nullified the sack and gave the ball back to the Bucs. Down goes my perfect day. Down goes my 2nd half under. Down goes my dignity. Listen, I can accept losing. But gambling is hard enough without the refs flat out stealing games from me. I won that Bengals game. That sack was as clean a sack as you’ll ever see in the NFL. It sucks and it stinks and it sucks that the refs blew that call. Who is going to pay for my gambling loss? I won that game. It’s just not fair. Now I’m pissed. And everybody knows what happens when El Presidente gets pissed. He starts betting more and more and that exactly what I’m going to do this week so let’s hope these games are winners…
NE at Buffalo -6
I feel like the Buffalo vs. New England series follows a familiar pattern every season. The first time that these teams meet the Pats are just getting their feet under them and the Bills are playing the best football they play all year. The result is that it’s always a fairly close game that the Pats end up winning in the 2nd half. Then the 2nd time these teams meet the Patriots are starting to round into shape while the Bills are in a freefall. I think that’s a pretty good description of what’s going on here. The Pats are sitting pretty coming off a bye week while the Bills just lost to the Lions a week after losing by 100 to the Bears. I think it’s safe to say that when you lose to the Detroit Lions the wheels are officially falling off the bus. Not even the great Dick Jaron of Swampscott High School will be able to save the Bills in this one. I’ll take the Pats in a blowout.
The Pick – Pats
Pitt at Atlanta -1
At the beginning of the season I said the Steelers wouldn’t make the playoffs. And so far I’d say that my prediction looks pretty good as the Steelers sit at 2-3 with their only two victories coming against the Dolphins and Chiefs. But as Bill Parcells once said, I reserve the right to change my mind. As much as I hate to admit it, I now think the Steelers will probably squeak in with a wild card. I was impressed with the way they crushed the Chiefs last week and I’ve been very impressed with the way their defense has played the entire season. I feel like Mike Vick always struggles against physical defenses and I expect him to struggle against a desperate Steelers team this week.
Mortal Lock – Pitt
Detroitat Jets -3
Can I really be taking the Jets two weeks in a row? I mean what are the odds that the Lions win two consecutive games with the 2nd win coming in a cold weather city on the road? I think El Presidente has a better chance of getting a guest column in the Boston Sports Review than that happening. So I guess the answer to the aforementioned question is yes I will be taking the Jets two weeks a row. And if the Jets keep playing Detroit and Miami every week they may just go undefeated the rest of the season.
The Pick - Jets
SD at KC +5
I’ve been betting on San Diego virtually every single week for the past two years and I feel like they’ve covered 95% of the time. I may have to stick our imaginary stat boy that we have working for us at the Stool on that statistic to look it up. (Screw it, I’ll try and find some statistics myself) Ok, after like 17 minutes of internet research I found out that the Chargers are 4-1 vs. the spread this year which is good enough for me. Combine the fact that San Diego has been great this year with the fact that Kansas City sucks and we have all the makings of a blowout in this one. As a side note, is Larry Johnson the biggest fantasy bust of all time? The only other guy I can remember being as bad as him was Marshall Faulk the year he got hurt. But at least he had an excuse. He got hurt.
The Pick - SD
Denverat Cleveland +6
This is a battle of two teams coming off bye weeks. Now, I know what you’re saying: didn’t the Broncos play on Sunday Night football vs. the Raiders? Well, yes and no. Technically, they played a game, but in reality they didn’t show up. And frankly I’m pissed about it. Shouldn’t there be a rule that lets gamblers know when one team doesn’t feel like showing up for a game? I mean the Broncos could have beaten the Raiders by 50 if they tried. Instead they just ran the ball up the middle every play and settled for a 10 pt victory. Therefore, I’m guessing they’ll be well rested for the Browns this week and will win by at least a TD.
The Pick - Denver
Minnesota at Seattle -7
I know that the Bears crushed Seattle a few weeks ago on Sunday Night Football. I remember it well because I actually picked the Bears in that one as my mortal lock. But I’m not ready to write of the Seahawks quite yet. They really should be the defending Super Bowl champions (besides the Pats) and I think they’ll be a legitimate contender at the end of this season as well. And when Seattle is going well they are just destroying people at home. I think they’ll put up a ton of pts against the Vikings forcing them to play catch up which they won’t be able to do.
The Pick – Seattle