March Madness: The 5 Forces of Nature
More February Madness!: The 5 Forces of Nature
In last week’s edition of The Stool I wrote about narrowing your game selection, avoiding big underdogs, etc. when betting on college basketball. That’s all well and good, and should definitely be noted, but - the real key in predicting a game is in the evaluation of the match-up. To me, the most essential step in the process is recognizing five crucial angles known as the “The 5 Forces of Nature”. These are five, distinct trends that bettors can use to their advantage in order to predict the result of a game. And if understood, these trends will not only help you pick more winners, but just as importantly, avoid more losers.
The first and foremost Force of Nature is the after-effect of the “win but don’t cover”. When the favorite, especially at home, wins by a margin less than the point spread, it is an indication that the team more or less, “went through the motions” in their performance. Obviously if the favored team DID play their best, they would’ve covered the line. What I’ve found we can take away from such a performance is that the team will most likely either lose their next game or fail to cover the line. In other words, a lackluster performance that results in a win is usually followed up with a loss. It’s the Hoops’ Gods way of evening things out. Now if Team X had TWO games in a row where they failed to cover as favorite, the chances become even GREATER of Team X losing the following game. This has happened throughout the year in every conference in the country, but the most striking example was last week where Kentucky, who had back to back non-covering HOME wins vs. Florida and Georgia, was spanked in their next outing at South Carolina. I don’t care who you are, playing poorly will catch up to you. BE-ware of the “non-covering win”, it is an ominous sign of things to come.
Going hand-and-hand with #1 is force #2, which is the “due for a win” force. Now this doesn’t apply to teams that flat out suck (Oregon, Auburn, St. Bonaventure, etc.), it only pertains to decent teams that have lost 2-3 close games in a row, i.e. Iona on Monday. This is an obvious benchmark in most sports (i.e. horse racing) but you’ll be surprised how often this is overlooked. Again, it’s the Hoop’s Gods leveling the scoreboard. (Although we’re still waiting for this in Providence.) Remember, just as winning while playing poorly will often lead to a loss, losing and playing well will often lead to a win. Force #2 is powerful, but most times will be overridden by force #3.
Our third force has been dominant the past 2 weeks. It’s the chain-reaction caused from a grueling, hard-fought game that results in 1 team having an emotional win and the other a devastating loss. The logic is simple, after a physically and mentally exhausting game, both teams are spent, and more times than not, cannot recover in time for their next opponent. If the game goes into OT, or 2OT, it’s even better, as FAILING to cover the following game becomes even more likely especially from the team that prevails. Unlike football where a team has 7 days to recoup from a game like this, these players usually only have 3 or 4, and the game is still fresh in their body and minds.
Let’s go through TWO chain-reactions from the past couple of weeks. The first began with Duke, who, if you saw their game vs. UNC, left absolutely everything on their home floor to beat the Tar Heels. I think Dicky V’s head exploded at least 3 times. As the game wore on, and the more effort Duke expended, the chances of them winning, let alone covering their NEXT game grew slimmer and slimmer. What happened was ANOTHER emotional contest where they lost as 3.5 point favorites at Maryland, and then dropped their following game at Va Tech. Continuing the pattern, now the Terps, who just beaten their arch rival Duke in said emotional game, had to travel to N.C. State for THEIR next game. Now I’m not in love with N.C. State by any means, but there was no way Maryland, a sub-par road team to boot, could win that game. It would’ve been practically impossible, and true to form lost by 19 when all I needed was State by 3.
The second chain-reaction stemmed from the Texas Tech/Kansas “instant classic” from last week where the Red Raiders played like Bobby Knight had threatened to strangle the entire team if they lost. Thankfully for them, Tech survived the 2OT battle vs. KU, but look what happened their next game - Tech was SMOKED at O.K. State, and Kansas, equally drained, dropped THEIR next game in an OT slugfest to Iowa State before naturally losing again AT Oklahoma. Now looking forward, if I were a betting man, it would stand to reason that I’d wager MORE than a few units AGAINST Iowa State in their next game at Texas A&M not because I love A&M, but because of this huge force going against the Cyclones. Make sense?
The fourth force is a team’s inability to win at a particular venue. Frankly, I don’t know how, why, or care why Team A cannot win AT Team B. Maybe it’s the water, maybe it’s the hookers the home team sends over. But what I do know is that if you see a particular team, no matter how well they’re playing this season, has gone YEARS without winning in their opponent’s building, proceed with EXTEME caution. The current Pitt squad, for example, had never won at Villanova, and lost yet again on Sunday. Wake Forest hadn’t won at Duke in 10 years, and true to form, lost again Sunday night. There are plenty of situations like this and the information can usually be found in the snapshot provided by your website. This is not an “end-all, be-all” type angle, but it is still worth noting because there’s definitely something to it.
The fifth and final force is easy - do NOT apply any of the above forces to UNLV. And if you have to ask why, you probably shouldn’t be reading this article.
To close, the more forces a team has going for them, the more units you should wager on the game. If BOTH teams have forces working for them, it’s probably a good idea to pass and wait for a better opportunity. Recognizing these trends have been invaluable for me the past few years, and hopefully will help you in YOUR quest for cash as well.
(Last week’s record: 14-6. This week’s predictions include: BC covering at Villanova in the “Battle of the Inappropriate Court-Rushing Fans”, Iowa State falling at Texas A&M, Portland covering vs. Gonzaga on Thursday night, and Providence finally WINNING a game at the buzzer.)