Kentucky Derby Preview

Well it was a year ago this week when wallets like yours and mine were disintegrated on the first Saturday in May, after 51-1 longshot Giacomo came from out of nowhere to illuminate the tote boards, shock the sports world, and capture last year’s Run for the Roses. 

In case you forgot - Giacomo paid a ridiculous $102 to Win and with 70-1 Closing Argument finishing 2^nd, the exacta paid $9,814; the tri, a whopping $133,134, and the super, a retirement-sized $864,253.  I obviously had no piece of ANY of that, and am still quite pissed.  Thanks, Bellamy Road.

Now I know what you’re saying - you lose all the time Pete, why so bitter about this one?

Well, for a couple of reasons – 1., working sucks, 2., my buddy who knows nothing about horse racing HAD f’n Giacomo that day, and most importantly 3., I should’ve at least recognized that with the amount of speed in the race it would set up nicely for a closer like f’n Giacomo to “pick up the pieces” and pass tired horses going “backwards” down the stretch.  Hindsight is 20-20, sure, but it was kind of amateur to not have at least thrown a few bucks on a horse like f’n Giacomo.  I should be over it by now, but I’m not. 

Anyway it’s a year later now and supposedly we’re all a year wiser.  Supposedly.  And if we take a look at the 06’ field, I think the same type of race is shaping up as in 05’ and I’ll be damned if I’m missing out again.  In fact, with the amount of speed horses entered, the pace will probably be even quicker than the blistering fractions set in 05’.  

So what do we do?  Well, we could pick a number 1-20 out of a hat and call it a day but we’re better than that.  What we do as handicappers, IF you agree with my assessment of a Redux of 05’ (that’s a big “if”) is find ourselves a horse that has the ability to come from way back, like Giacomo, in order to win.  If you look at the field as it stands now, I think there’s plenty of speed horses (horses who need to be on the lead in order to win, thus quickening the pace) to justify this line of thinking. 

Now, do I KNOW what the fractions will be?  No, of course not.  I don’t even know the weather, post-positions or the number of Mint Juleps “Neumy” will down before “Old Kentucky Home”.  But that won’t fundamentally change how I think the race will play out.  

So it’s time to handicap.  Right now I have 15 horses with “Do Not Bet” written across their names.  Here they are, and why.

Seaside Retreat (probable odds: 150-1. Seriously.)  He finished 32 ½ lengths back his last start; that’s really all I needed to see.  

Flashy Bull (80-1) – Trying to get lightning to strike twice with Giacomo rider Mike Smith aboard another son of Holy Bull.  Not going to happen.  Also, I’ve never heard of this, but the horse is coming off a case of the “thumps.”  No clue, but I don’t like it.

Storm Treasure (70-1) – Doesn’t have a jockey yet. 

Mister Triester (70-1) – I don’t even think he’s running. 

Deputy Glitters (60-1) – Two solid starts at Tampa earlier, then regressed badly in the Wood.  Don’t care if it was sloppy.

Cause to Believe (50-1) – Normally I wouldn’t eliminate a big closer like Cause to Believe, especially after last year.  The reason I am though is because A., in the races he’s won the competition was less than stellar (nothing better than a Grade 3), and B., he didn’t close at all his last race.  He went from 4 to 10 lengths back in the Illinois Derby.  Listen, we have to make cuts… it’s the toughest part of the job.

Showing Up (40-1) – He’s 3-0 but hasn’t beaten anybody.  Not his fault, just saying.  

Keyed Entry (40-1) – Part of early pace, but not enough to last 1 ¼ mile.

Sharp Humor (40-1) – See Keyed Entry.

Private Vow (40-1) – Not impressed with how he finished his last 2 starts.

Bluegrass Cat (30-1) – Looked great in 2005, not sure what happened.  Finished 21 ¼ lengths back in his last start - the Blue Grass Stakes.  That’s just embarrassing...

Sinister Minister (15-1) – There’s two schools of thought on Sinister Minister.  Either you think the track at Keeneland, where he flew in the Blue Grass, is just God-awful, or, you think this horse is the real deal, on any surface.  Well, I have to trust history on this one.  The Blue Grass winner hasn’t won the Derby since 91’, plus, the horse just ran the best race of his life.  Repeating that kind of performance would really be something special.  It would take some serious stones to bet the speed of all speed horses in this year’s race, and I just can’t see the Minister lasting a 1 ¼ mile.

Bob and John (12-1) – Trainer Bob Baffert shipped this horse in from California to New York where he won the Wood Memorial in the slop.  But if you look at his past performances – A., he’s more of a stalker than a closer, and B., he’s never beaten Brother Derek, A.P. Warrior or Point Determined – all who’ll be there on Saturday.  I’m just not that excited about this horse, not sure exactly what it is.  So I’ll be looking elsewhere from Baffert’s Bob and John.

Barbaro (6-1) – Speaking of trusting history, Barbaro’s connections are really rolling the dice by having their horse race just once in the last 13 weeks.  That’s not sitting well with a lot of gamblers, including me.  Obviously they know something we don’t, the horse is undefeated; however if you combine the 5 week layoff with his soft, “Florida horse” reputation – I’m just not in love with Barbaro’s chances of winning on Saturday.

Lawyer Ron (6-1) – I like a lot of things about Lawyer Ron.  He’s had the same jockey (John McKee) for 13 of his 14 career starts. He’s following the same Triple Crown trail as Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex coming out of the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, and his 14 starts make him the most experienced horse in the field.  The problem is that other than the Rebel when he closed from 4^th, Lawyer Ron has been on or near the lead in each of his 7 career wins.  And being on the lead Saturday is really NOT an advantage.  Therefore, I can’t take the chance he’s going to repeat what he did once in the Rebel, rather than the other 6 times. 

Brother Derek (7-2) – Like Lawyer Ron, the probable favorite really has not shown the ability to come from off the pace.  If you look at his past performances, Brother Derek needs to be on the lead, and that’s something most people don’t believe he’ll be able to do.  Also, his largest prep race field was only 8.  How will he react to 20 horses on Saturday?  Plus he’s got the whole “anti-favorite” trend going against him (only 2 winners in 25 years) and, no winner of the Santa Anita Derby has won the Kentucky Derby since Sunday Silence in 1989.  For said reasons, I’m passing on the favorite.

And then there were 5.  If you’re keeping score, we’ve eliminated all horses except Jazil (30-1), Steppenwolfer (20-1), Point Determined (15-1), A.P. Warrior (15-1), and Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1). 

So, which one to choose?  First off, I’ll be boxing them all in ridiculous exactas and trifectas – but as far as winning the race I’ve decided for reasons mentioned earlier, its coming down to the 2 closers – Steppenwolfer and Jazil.  I think Point Determined (son of Point Given), Sweetnorthernsaint and A.P. Warrior will all be there (that’s why I’m putting them in my exacta), but because of how deadly I think the pace will be, I’m banking on a Closing Argument - Giacomo finish out of Jazil and Steppenwolfer.   Therefore, my longshot winner for this year is none other than Steppenwolfer. 

(Yes, as in the classic rock band Steppenwolf who brought us such classics as “Born to Be Wild” and “Magic Carpet Ride”.  And you better believe I’ll have them blaring from my Camaro if he wins this thing.) 

Why Steppenwolfer over Jazil?  Besides the band, Steppenwolfer has been a more consistent closer.  Jazil closes in every race, but sometimes he’s too late.  Who cares if you close from 9^th to 7^th?  Steppenwolfer, on the other hand, has finished in the money in each of last 7 races, including 3^rd in the Rebel and 2^nd in the Arkansas, both with Derby jockey Robby Albarado aboard.  Plus I saw a piece on Steppenwolfer on TVG - his trainer is hilarious and the horse is quite ugly.  And that’s good enough for me.

So, the final pick for the 2006 Kentucky Derby – Steppenwolfer to Win, Jazil to Place, and Sweetnorthernsaint to Show.  Enjoy the race, and good luck to everyone on Saturday.