2005 Kentucky Derby Preview

2005 Kentucky Derby Preview

Whether or not you’ve been watching TVG religiously the past 4 months OR have your own online fantasy stable (don’t ask), odds are you’re still well aware that coming up this first Saturday in May is the 131st running of the Kentucky Derby. Per usual, we have a full field of 20 thoroughbreds looking to capture the first leg of the Triple Crown, and who better than The Stool to breakdown the race for not only the casual fan watching “for fun”, but for the lazy degenerate looking to bounce back from another bad beat at the hands of a scratch ticket.

Going Wild – Probable odds: 80-1. Trainer: D.W. Lukas. Jockey: J. Valdivia. How I didn’t recognize the fraudulence of a horse whose last victory was at a race called “The Sham” is beyond me. In the last few weeks I’ve been “Going Broke” betting on Going Wild. He’s finished a combined 57 lengths back in his last 2 races and will be an absolute non-factor on Saturday.

Spanish Chestnut – Probable odds: 80-1. Tr: P. Biacone. Jky: J. Bravo. Kind of a sketchy subplot here with the early speed horse, Spanish Chestnut. Spanish Chestnut is owned by the same group that owns Bandini and is being sent out as a “rabbit”. In theory, this would force Steinbrenner’s horse, the favorite, Bellamy Road, to expend his energy too early in the race and would allow Bandini (of all people) to overtake him down the stretch. (Note: The Big Stein is not happy about this devious tactic since he would never THINK about doing it himself.)

Sort It Out – Probable odds: 50-1. Tr: B. Baffert. Jky: B. Blanc. Not a good year for the Baffert stable. While Todd Pletcher and Nick Zito are the stars of the show with a combined 8 horses in the race (Zito – 5, Pletcher – 3), Baffert’s lone entry has as good a shot as Arod becoming the next mayor of Boston. Or New York…

Andromeda’s Hero – Probable odds: 40-1. Tr: N. Zito. Jky: TBD. Clearly the weakest of the Zito quintet, this horse needs to improve big time. Also, I’m no expert, but it can’t be a good sign that Andromeda’s Hero still doesn’t have a jockey. Somebody call Mini-Me!

Closing Argument – Probable odds: 40-1. Tr: K. McLaughlin. Jky: C. Velasquez. The only “case” you could make for Closing Argument is that he’s finished in the money in each of his 7 career starts. I don’t care if he was in the money in his first 70 starts, this jockey has screwed me so many times in my career I’m not touching Closing Argument with a 10 foot pole.

Giacomo – Probable odds: 40-1. Tr: J. Sherreffs. Jky: M. Smith. In 4 of his last 5 races, Giacomo has been in contention down the stretch but just can’t seem to close the deal. If they had a Horse Racing NIT I might bet on him, but not the first Saturday in May.

Don’t Get Mad – Probable odds: 35-1. Tr: R. Ellis. Jky: TBD. It wasn’t until Monday, when Consolidator was retired, that Don’t Get Mad was assured a spot in this year’s field. Originally it appeared as if his owner would, in effect, choose his other 3 year old, Greeley’s Galaxy, instead of him. But thanks to the injury, Don’t Get Mad should be there Saturday, and although an upset win would be a nice story for trainer Ron Ellis who had former Derby favorite Declan’s Moon prime for a Triple Crown before an injury forced HIM off the Derby trail, the fact that he just raced last weekend in the Derby Trial makes Don’t Get Mad too risky a proposition.

Buzzard’s Bay – Probable odds: 30-1. Tr: J. Mullins. Jky: M. Guidry. You’ve got to see this horse’s trainer - the guy has a mullet! Maybe not a long, flowing, Jagr-type mullet, but nonetheless. Although it might not be the most scientific approach, I just can’t bring myself to bet on Buzzard’s Bay because of his trainer’s atrocious hair cut.

Flower Alley – Probable odds: 25-1. Tr: T. Pletcher. Jky: J. Chavez. Because his horse “lost focus” twice during the Blue Grass, trainer Todd Pletcher has decided to put blinkers on Flower Alley for the first time Saturday. I could be wrong, but I’m 90% sure I also heard Pletcher say that Flower Alley once tried to bite another horse down the backstretch. Yikes! Strangely, because of that, and the blinkers, I like this horse as my sleeper pick.

Greater Good – Probable odds: 25-1. Tr: R. Holthus. Jky: J. McKee. I was extremely impressed when I saw this horse defeat previously undefeated Rockport Harbor in the Rebel last month…that is, until a few weeks later when Rockport Harbor stunk up the joint at the Lexington, losing by 20 lengths. Although I’m not betting on him, I wouldn’t be shocked if GG somehow got up for 2nd or 3rd.

Coin Silver – Probable odds: 25-1. Tr: T. Pletcher. Jky: P. Valenzuela. Another subplot here for NBC with Pat Valenzuela aboard Coin Silver. Valenzuela has battled some off the track difficulties of late, and hasn’t ridden in the Derby since ’93. If Pletcher trusts him on his horse, I guess we should too, but a win over a mediocre field at the Lexington isn’t enough to justify a wager.

Wilko – Probable odds: 20-1. Tr: C. Dollase. Jky: C. Nakatani. Since his 30-1, ¾ length upset win over Afleet Alex, Sun King and Consolidator in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last October, Wilko has not found the winner’s circle in 3 starts since. Like Drew Barrymore, I think his best work might have been as a 2 year old. I must say this about him - even though he may not win the race, Wilko will give 110% every time out, and that’s all you can ask as a bettor.

Sun King – Probable odds: 15-1. Tr: N. Zito. Jky: E. Prado. Remember the pilot episode of “Curb Your Enthusiasm” when the guy on the phone tells Larry he’s just “not a fan” of “Seinfeld?” (Larry gets angry and questions him for even mentioning it.) Well that’s me on Sun King. I’m just “not a fan”. He started the year off great with back to back wins down in Florida, but then finished 9 behind Bandini in the Blue Grass on April 16th. Prado? Zito?? I know, just not a fan, sorry…

Greeley’s Galaxy – Probable odds: 12-1. Tr: W. Stute. Jky: K. Desormeaux. Interesting Derby quirk – even though he has enough graded Stakes earnings in 2005 to qualify, because Greeley’s Galaxy wasn’t nominated for the Triple Crown, his owner has to pay a $200,000 supplement to enter him in the race. Ridiculous, I know. However, it appears the guy HAS scrounged up the necessary change for two simple reasons – A, it’s the f’n Kentucky Derby, and B, his trainer, Warren Stute, is 83 years old. (Sappy montage alert!) I’m not giving him a chance to make it though (the horse) because the Illinois Derby field he beat last month was horrible.

Noble Causeway – Probable odds: 12-1. Tr: N. Zito. Jky: G. Stevens. The Daily Racing Form is calling Noble Causeway a real “wise guy” horse. Apparently this means the race is fixed and all the mob guys are betting him. No matter the translation, the bottom line with Noble Causeway is that although he is improving, the Kentucky Derby is too tough a place to get the first Stakes win of your career. Yup, Stevens is gettin’ whacked!

High Limit – Probable odds: 12-1. Tr: R. Frankel. Jky: R.A. Dominguez. Instinctually, the first thing I thought of when I saw that reigning Horse of the Year and Breeder’s Cup champ Ghostzapper was working out with High Limit was Rocky training with Apollo in Rocky III. Talk about a great sparring partner?! While all that may be true, let’s not throw Paulie into the pool just yet. A distant 2nd to Bandini at the Blue Grass is enough for me to look elsewhere.

High Fly – Probable odds: 7-1. Tr: N. Zito. Jky: J. Bailey. They’re calling him the “forgotten horse” of the Zito barn because he hasn’t raced since his win at the Florida Derby over a month ago. This is a great horse; he beat Bandini in the Fountain of Youth, he’s got Jerry Bailey in maybe his last Derby, and he has a trainer in Nick Zito who’s been on-fire this year. The only knocks on him are 1, he’s never raced outside Florida, and 2, he hasn’t been QUITE as impressive in his preps as the other “Tier 1” horses.

Bandini – Probable odds: 9-2. Tr: T. Pletcher. Jky: J. Velazquez. Like Pacific in college basketball this year, I always end up coming back to the teams, or in this case, horses, who’ve won me money. I hit paydirt on Bandini (as in Caterina from Channel 7) in the Blue Grass Stakes, and now I feel like I have to support him in the Derby. You’d think I’ve learned my lesson but you never know. As of now, I’m passing on Bandini even though he’s looked great in all 4 starts this year.

Afleet Alex – Probable odds: 9-2. Tr: T. Ritchey. Jky: J. Rose. You’ve got admire how this horse has arrived at the Kentucky Derby. Unlike most of these colts, Afleet Alex was heavily raced as a 2 year old, and was quite successful to boot. I’ve been following him since August when he won the Hopeful in Saratoga, all the way through the Arkansas Derby where he crushed the field last month. His detractors will point to his performance in the Rebel, but you can throw that out because A, he had a lung infection, and B, his regular jockey Jeremy Rose wasn’t aboard for the first time in his career. With Rose, Afleet Alex has never lost by more than ¾ of a length. He will be there in the end on Saturday, but I think he comes up just short.

Bellamy Road – Probable odds: 3-1. Tr: N. Zito. Jky: J.J. Castellano. Picture it - Belmont Park. June 11th, 2005. George M. Steinbrenner III is awarded the Triple Crown trophy as the owner of super horse, Bellamy Road (named for ex-MTV VJ.) I’m sure they’ll show it 1000 times leading up to the race, but his 17 length win at the Wood Memorial was unbelievable. And his start before that, he won by 15! Even if he regresses a bit off the Wood, I still think he’s good enough to win the Derby. If, (and this is a big if) IF, he draws a far outside post, it’s a completely different story because then it would be extremely difficult for Bellamy Road to grab the lead which he loves to do. So, anything inside pp 15, he’s not only my pick for the Derby, but also to become our first Triple Crown winner in 27 years. No more Funny Cide/Smarty Jones “blue balling”. As someone once said…“Kind of reminds me of Seattle Slew”…

Official pick: Bellamy Road to win. Afleet Alex 2nd, Noble Causeway 3rd. Longshot picks – Wilko and Flower Alley. Good luck to everyone on Saturday.