February Madness: Basic Keys to College Hoops Gambling
For the last 5-6 years, the month of February has been by far my most profitable gambling month of the year. Too bad it’s the shortest, but trust me when I tell you I don’t do particularly well the other 11. The reason being that college basketball games during this period (conference play) are the easiest games to predict. And predictability in the gambling world equals profitability in the real world. Sure, bad bounces and bad calls happen all the time, but unlike football, they’re usually not the back-breakers that squash your chances of covering a line. Of course if you have your own method that has worked for you, stick with it. I’m just providing some of the basic principles that have worked for me and will hopefully assist you in getting some revenge on your bookie this month.
Game Selection
The number one thing in picking winners is game selection. Unlike the NFL where we only have 16 games a week, there are anywhere from 10-50 games a night in college basketball. Unless you’re a complete degenerate with no control of yourself, there’s absolutely no reason to bet a game if you don’t like it. None. “Because it’s on TV” might be a reason to watch American Idol, but it’s a foolish reason to wager on a basketball game. I may bet 3 games in a given night or none at all for 3 nights in a row. It all depends on if the criteria I define for betting a game is met. Do I adhere to these criteria at all times? Obviously not. And this is when I lose.
So what are the criteria I try and stick to? For me, the first step in selecting a game is to eliminate any games with a spread of 10 or more points. We’ve all seen the scenario far too many times where walk-ons of the -15 favorite come in with their team up 20 with a minute left, and promptly surrender 2 garbage time 3’s to back-door you. Again, with so many games on the slate, unless you enjoy getting kicked in the nuts, there’s no reason in the world to take a chance on the big spreads.
The second step is to all but eliminate the underdogs. Again, with 30 games a night to choose from, why would you bother betting on an underdog? The only reason would be if you were convinced the underdog could win the game outright. Not a hunch, or a feeling they’ll “keep it close”. You’ve got to be 90% sure this team will win the game outright to justify betting a dog. “Keeping it close” in my opinion, is the 2nd worse reason to bet next to “Because it’s on TV” for the simple reason that you may be right in your analysis but still lose your bet. Team A +8.5 might “keep it close” with Team B for 37 minutes before the Team A pulls away and covers on late free throws. This happens all the time, and the way to avoid it is to simply pass on all dogs unless you legitimately believe they’ll win the game on the court.
Home Favorites -1 to -5
Okay, so we’ve narrowed down the field to essentially favorites of less than 10 points. Let’s get more specific. Home Favorites giving between 1 and 5 points are those I consider to be “Tier 1” wagering games. The lower the amount of points the favorite has to give, naturally, the better. Purdue was only -1.5 the other night vs. Michigan State and I almost creamed myself. (Purdue won by 6) Now do I bet EVERY home favorite -1 to -5? No, not at all. I just love games like this when home teams are only giving a few points because really, the only objective becomes picking the winner and letting the spread take care of itself either on buckets or worse case scenario, free throws at the end.
Road Favorites -1 to -3
As everyone knows, winning on the road against a quality team in your conference is not an easy thing to do. As Dicky V would say, it takes a “special team” to pull this off. This is why I’m in love with the aforementioned Home Favorites vs. sub-par road teams at -1 to -5. However, if I see an elite team that has proven itself on the road I’ll walk home naked in the snow to place a bet on them. Road Favorites -1 to -3, I consider “Tier II” wagers. Like the Home Favorites -1 to -5, or any game for that matter, of course you need to take a few minutes to analyze the matchup to see if anything suspicious jumps at you, but for the most part, I’ll take the Road Favorites -1 to -3. For elite teams, playing away from home usually doesn’t pose a problem, and covering such a small line isn’t either.
Avoid Non-Elite Teams That Can’t Win at a Particular Venue
Frankly I don’t know how, why, or care why Team A hasn’t won at Team B since 1962. Maybe it’s the water, maybe it’s the hookers the home team sends over. But what I do know is that if you see a particular team, no matter how well they’re playing this season, has gone YEARS without winning in their opponent’s building, proceed with extreme caution. You see this all time, and based on experience, I’m just never comfortable betting against 10, 15, 25 years of history.
Bad lines
Linesmakers make mistakes. Very rarely, but “They’re human beings!” as Teddy Sarandis once said, and it’s our #1 job as handicappers to make these people pay for their mistakes. It doesn’t happen often, maybe once a month, but basically all you need to do to spot one of these is the ability to analyze both teams, and do simple math. For example, Vegas usually tacks on 5 points for the home team give or take a point, so if you see Home Team X -7.5, that means Vegas thinks Team X is 2.5 points better than the underdog. Now this is where following the teams comes into play, 8 points is nothing in college basketball. If Team X is MORE than 2.5 points better than the underdog, it’s a bad line and you immediately jump on Team X. If not, I wouldn’t necessarily bet the dog, I’d just pass on the game and look for a better spot.
Again, I’m not guaranteeing anything here. Don’t sue The Stool, we don’t have any money anyway but I’m just saying. If you’re doing well on your own, then stick with your own strategy. These are just some of the basic principles which have worked for me when betting college hoops games the past few years in February. Remember though, once conference play ends and March Madness begins, blood, guts and neutral courts play a greater role and you can throw this article in the trash. So take advantage of the next few weeks because once the brackets come out, nobody has a clue.