Enemy Perspective

 I had an advertising professor in college who gave me a pretty good piece of advice:

Never start your pitch to clients by saying anything along the lines of, “This may not be the greatest idea…”

He was right, of course. You should never try to lower expectations on your ideas. The more highly you think of them, the more your audience will too.

That being said…

Sports prediction columns are as useful as Kevin Federline.

They are a great gimmick—everyone loves to hear what the so-called experts think will happen during the course of the season, because we love our teams so much we all hold out hope that our team can win the Series. And if some ex-player who sits in his suit in a broadcast studio thinks our team has a chance, then dammit, they do. We’re suckers.

Well, I’m shirtless on my couch right now and my playing days ended years ago in high school when Johnny Damon stole the Delorean, came back in time and beat me in a throwing contest.

(I know what you’re thinking… that’s like the 1,000^th Johnny-Damon-throwing-arm joke I’ve made. I can’t help it; it never gets old for me, even when he’s on my team. Some wells never dry up.)

If you’re looking for some nugget of hope to help you make it through the second half, you’ve come to the wrong place.

Without further ado, here is my MLB Second Half Predictions Column, otherwise known as the “If I had done a first-half recap, I’d have had to do research, and I’m too lazy for that” column.

Team that will earn me free drinks: The Minnesota Twins.

My friend Kayla, who is too pretty to be from Minnesota but is naive enough to make a sucker bet with me (which makes me believe that she could actually be from Minnesota), bet me an entire night’s worth of drinking that the Twins will make the playoffs. Normally, I’d never take a friend’s money on such a sucker bet. The Twins are in the best division in baseball, and they just won something like 25 out of thirty games and are still more than nine back of Detroit, and still in third place. Kayla’s mistake, however, was betting me a night’s worth of alcohol, and I am not capable of turning down free alcohol. It is good to know I will be drunk for free at least one night in October.

Will win the AL batting title: Not Joe Mauer

He’s hitting an amazing .378 at the break. I have no reason to believe that it’s not going to happen. Just a hunch. But if he does win it, his average will be much lower than it currently is. The Twins went 16-2 against the National League in Interleague play, against obviously inferior pitching from the AAAA-clubs. Mauer feasted. A famine usually follows.

Will be seriously injured in the second half: Josh Beckett

And it won’t be because I pull a Tonya Harding on him. I’m telling you, he’s one wet mound or awkward throw away from being the next Carl Pavano. Just wait. He’s never pitched anywhere near 200 innings in a season in his career, and he’s on pace for 220. Just wait. I’m going to keep saying this until it comes true.

Will not be playing for the Yankees in September: Gary Sheffield

Doctors have said he’ll be fine for a September return, but something tells me that’s not going to happen. If the Yanks somehow fall out of contention, it definitely won’t. And with his contract up this year, I think there’s a very good chance we have seen the last of Gary Sheffield in pinstripes.

Won’t come close to accomplishing anything: Kansas City and Pittsburgh.

In a few related stories, the sun will rise tomorrow, American Idol will annoy the crap out of me, you’ll get drunk and hook up with a fat chick, that new Selma Hayek-produced show with the ugly girl will get canceled, Tom and Katie’s kid will be a headcase, and George Bush will embarrass the crap out of us in front of the world.

(As for that Selma Hayek show that ABC pummeled us with previews of during the World Cup, someone needs to tell her that we didn’t watch her movies for her acting talent. So unless she’s actually in this show, we don’t give a crap about the fact she’s producing it. Essentially, this show is a pilot away from being the next “Emily’s Reasons Why Not”.)

Will hear the most boos: A-Rod

Even I’m starting to feel bad for him. The guy is a league leader in late-inning go-ahead RBIs this year, and everyone is still booing him. I’ve crapped all over the guy in this space. It stops now—or until October, anyway. He just can’t win. You know it’s bad when I have sympathy for a guy making $25 million, which coincidentally is $25 million more than I make writing this column.

Will win AL Cy Young: Jonathan Papelbon

Actually, he won’t. But he’ll have the numbers for it.

Will win AL MVP: David Ortiz

I’ll admit, I’m old-school when it comes to picking an MVP—he has to be a position player in my book. But even I can’t overlook what Papi is doing this year. If this doesn’t happen, it will be because of one reason and one reason only: the Red Sox don’t make the playoffs. Speaking of which…

Will win the AL East: The New York Yankees

A year ago on July 9, the Yankees were in third place and 3.5 back of the Sox, who looked like a sure thing to break the Yanks’ streak of consecutive AL East titles. And we all know how that turned out. But my real reason for this is that the Red Sox went an insane 16-2 against the National League. If you take away the Interleague games, the Sox would currently be in third place, three games behind the Yankees and two behind Toronto. That doesn’t bode well for the rest of the Red Sox season against the American League.

Will win the AAAA League: The New York Doesntmatters

After what the Sox and Chicago did to the AAAA teams they played the past two years, and with how Interleague play went this year, and how the All-Star games goes every year, does anyone seriously believe an NL team can compete in the Fall Classic? Anyone? (As an aside, if you pick this up after the All-Star Game, write me an email and tell me how good my prediction on the Midsummer Classic was. I’m picking the AL to win, with the score 5,345 to 3.)

Will win the AL Wild Card: The Detroit Tigers

All last year I dumped on the White Sox. I predicted a collapse, called it inevitable. Called them “flukes having career years.” I waited. And waited. They made the playoffs. I predicted a first round exit. They swept. I predicted a quick second round exit. They won. Undeterred, I picked the Astros in 7 in my old blog. They’re flying a World Series Champions banner in U.S. Cellular Field this year. Chicago, I’ve learned my lesson, and I’m not doubting this team and its certifiably-crazy manager again. Even if Detroit is the new Chicago, I’m still saying:

Will win the World Series: The Chicago White Sox

Detroit will fade slightly in the second half, and Chicago will win the division. But with no Wild Card to spare, either the Sox or Yanks will be staying home in October for the first time since 2002.

Unless Toronto goes on a run—in which case, both teams could stay home.

But my shirtless non-former-player expert instinct tells me that’s not going to happen.