DK's Dugout

Recently Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar stated, “I suck”, and I would be shocked if there is anybody out there that disagrees.

While admirably trying to defend teammate Edgar Renteria, the Sox shortstop who was slumping heavily at the time, Millar suggested that the fans boo him instead. Millar said, “I suck. I’m not a good player. He (Renteria) is”. And while I don’t think that booing him is the answer to whatever it is keeping Millar from doing anything right on the baseball field this season, I do think he hit the nail on the head. Millar is not a good player, at least not anymore. Now it’s time for the Sox to do something about it.

Millar first came to Boston prior to the 2003 campaign. In his first two seasons as a Red Sox regular he has been known as the guy who introduced “Cowboy Up”, the “Rally Karaoke Guy”, a card-carrying member of the “Idiots”, and a World Champion. He has also been widely acclaimed as a fantastic teammate and a great guy, neither of which I would argue with based on his teammates’ obvious fondness for him. But there is only one way to describe the on-field contributions of Kevin Millar so far in 2005: Useless.

The average statistics for Millar in his first two seasons with the Sox were solid, even if not spectacular. Over 298 games played in those two years Millar batted .286 while averaging 22 home runs and 85 RBI per season. He also scored an average of 79 runs a year to go along with a .369 on-base percentage and a .473 slugging percentage.

As I said, these numbers weren’t bad by any means but they also weren’t spectacular. They were, however, good enough to be a starter on a team that came within a Grady Little brain-freeze of making it to the World Series in 2003 and to be the starting first baseman of the 2004 World Champions. But there were still plenty of people (myself included) who were not exactly thrilled with the production of Boston’s first baseman. These folks, the ones that didn’t like having Millar as the Sox first baseman when he was posting decent numbers in ’03 and ’04, must really hate having him at first in ’05. I know I am.

Kevin Millar certainly brings “intangibles” to the table. He is a good guy, a good teammate, keeps the clubhouse loose and appears to play the game hard at all times. The example he sets with his relaxed confidence is a key reason a team down 3 games to 0 in a best of 7 series can come back to beat the New York Yankees.

And when Millar is playing pretty well, even averagely, these intangibles are what still make it worth having him in the lineup. They make him more valuable than mere numbers. But when Millar is performing miserably at the plate, as he has for the vast majority of this season, these intangibles are not nearly enough to outweigh an extreme lack of production at the plate.

Currently, through the season’s first 50 games, Millar is on pace for the following numbers in 2005: 152 games played, .243 batting average, 6 home runs, 71 runs batted in, 45 runs scored, .340 on-base percentage, .325 slugging percentage.

When looking at these projected numbers a few things jump out at me:

* How could a major league first baseman on pace to play 152 games be on pace to hit only 6 home runs?

* How could anybody playing so many games in a lineup as potent as the Boston Red Sox’ (currently 1st in the A.L. in runs) be on pace to score only 45 runs all season?

* How does a first baseman have a higher on-base percentage than slugging percentage, something that no American League first baseman with 100 plate appearances has done in a dozen years (when Seattle’s Dave Magadan and Boston’s Carlos Quintana both did it in 1993)?

* If a batter is not bringing power (2 home runs to date) or speed (0 steals) to the table, and is considered a below-average fielder (4th worst fielding percentage of A.L. first basemen), why is he playing?

Now that we’ve identified the problem, Millar’s awful on-field performance, it’s time to figure out a solution. I do not believe that simply letting Millar play and work his way out of this season-long slump would be a solution at this point; it would simply be ignoring a problem that is becoming less tolerable by the day. At this point there is no area of his game that Millar supporters can point to and say, “well at least…”

Want to start a rally? Don’t look to Kevin Millar; he’s 5 for 30 leading off innings in 2005. Want to keep a rally going? Once again Millar’s not your man; with runners on base and two outs Millar is 6 for 36. Batting .167 whether he’s starting innings or finishing them with off with runners on base…. don’t boo him, bench him!

I have never been a huge Kevin Millar fan, but I vowed to give him a chance this season. It was no longer going to matter that he did too many interviews, shot too many commercials or talked to too many opponents. I was going to ignore Millar trying to pull every single pitch, regardless of count or situation (even though it drives me insane).

In 2005 I was going to embrace Millar for the same reason I encouraged Sox fans to welcome David Wells at the beginning of the year: Other teams’ fans cannot stand him. The fact that one of the Sox players could annoy the opposing fans so much made him endearing to me, but even that has now fallen by the wayside. If you were a Yankee, Oriole or Blue Jay fan would you really hate Kevin Millar, the one person in the Boston lineup your pitchers can be relied upon to get out?

So having Millar as the Red Sox first baseman is clearly not the best bet for Boston to repeat as World Champions in 2005. Since this is the last year of Millar’s contract with the Sox a replacement will likely be found for next season via trade (Mike Sweeney of Kansas City?) or free agency (the White Sox Paul Konerko?) at some point. But regardless of what Theo is able to pull off after this season is over, there is still a significant problem to fix for the next 100 games of this year’s campaign. So back to the solution…

Option #1 - John Olerud. The veteran of over 2,150 major league games, who recently joined the Red Sox, went 5-for-11 in his first three games. While obviously a minute sample size it is encouraging that there is still life is the 36 year old first baseman. The sweet-swinging lefty is still an outstanding defensive first baseman, and if he can put up numbers even similar to Millar offensively he is such an upgrade defensively that the decision would be a no-brainer (intangibles or not). Last year for the Yankees he hit .280 with 4 homers and 26 RBI in 49 games. Needless to say if he can duplicate even those modest numbers from a year ago Olerud should be the man for the Sox over at first base.

Option #2 – Kevin Youkilis. The youngster does not have much experience over at first, but I find it difficult to believe he would actually be worse than Millar over there. He is certainly not the defensive upgrade Olerud would be, but few people are. Youkilis’ numbers have been modestly solid through his first 45 plate appearances in 2005. He’s batting .316 with an outstanding .422 on-base percentage. Although he has yet to homer in ’05, his offensive output has been solid enough to warrant more at bats, and there is no telling what more at bats would mean for the 26 year old (good or bad). And even with his limited playing time and limited major league experience, he has just two fewer homers than the Red Sox regular over at first.

Option #3 – Stick with Millar. What a horrible idea this would be. Terry Francona has gotten a lot of credit for sticking with Millar despite his struggles in the first half of the 2004 season, but the credit the Sox manager has received is not fully due him. Last year the only other options at first were David McCarty (there’s a reason he’s currently not on anyone’s roster) and, after the trade, Mientkiewicz. The decision to play Millar over Mientkiewicz was not the most difficult when one considers that in 107 Red Sox at bats Mientkiewicz batted .215 with 1 home run and 10 RBI. In other words, it didn’t take a genius to not play the guy batting .215. The decision to stick with Millar had more to do with common sense than with loyalty to a clubhouse favorite or managing genius/foresight. This season, with Olerud and Youkilis, there are better options AND Millar is playing even worse. The combination of these things makes Option #3 the worst one of all.

Option #4 – Trade. Unclear who may be available (could a deal be worked for Todd Helton of the Rockies?) but the Sox have enough prospects (i.e. Kelly Shoppach) that they could make something happen if there is something available.

Kevin Millar has had many titles since first coming to Boston before the 2003 campaign. Hopefully another word will soon be added to describe the Cowboy/Rally Karaoke Guy/Idiot/World Champ….

Reserve.