Barstool’s 3rd Annual Kentucky Derby Spectacular
Well, here we are again. The first Saturday in May is just a few days away and the world of thoroughbred racing takes center stage for a whopping 2 minutes in Louisville, Kentucky.
You know it seems like it was just yesterday when I, like a lot of people, bought into the Bellamy Road hype and picked him to win in ’05. He came in 7th. Last year I went with a price in “rock n’ roll” grey horse Steppenwolfer, and he ran a solid 3rd. With no clear cut favorite, this year’s 20 horse field is as wide open as ever and today we’ll be breaking it down.
Things to consider - can Curlin break the long-standing drought and become the first horse since 1882 to win the Derby without racing as a 2 year old? How will Circular Quay respond after an 8 week layoff? Can Street Sense duplicate his performance from the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile? And most importantly, will I ever f*cking pick a f*cking winner in this race?!
So many questions to answer in this, the 3rd Annual Barstool Sports’ Kentucky Derby Spectacular...
(Unlike the past few years when we’ve gone through every horse, I’m going to skip the horses who I feel have virtually no chance to win this race and simply breakdown the contenders. Those I’m eliminating include: Xchanger, Teuflesberg, Storm in May, Sedgefield and Liquidity.)
Onto the Spectacular…
Cobalt Blue (probable odds: 60-1) Trainer: D. O’Neill. Jockey: V. Espinoza. I would’ve included Cobalt Blue in the “virtually no chance pool” but I have to mention to him because of his fruitcake owner, Merv Griffin, who embarrassed himself a few weeks ago on quasi-national TV after Cobalt Blue won the San Felipe. It was basically Joe Namath-Suzy Kolber Part 2 with Merv and ESPN’s Jeannie Edwards. The problem was nobody saw it. As far as the horse, 18 lengths back in the Illinois Derby should make you look elsewhere.
[ed.note - Cobalt Blue now OUT of the Derby.]
Zanjero (40-1) Trn: S. Asmussen. Jky: Undecided. Never like seeing the old “undecided” next to the jockey label this late in the game. Zanjero had Garrett Gomez aboard his last 2 starts where he ran 3rd in both the Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, but Gomez is on Any Given Saturday, on Saturday. Just looking at Zanjero’s past performances – 3-wide, 4-wide, 4-wide, 6-wide… can somebody get this horse a little tighter on the first turn please? Obviously we don’t know the post positions at this time, but if “undecided” can do that – who knows? Zanjero won his only career race at Churchill.
Sam P. (30-1) Trn: T. Pletcher. Jky: R. Dominguez. Of Pletcher’s 5 Derby entrants, the least likely to be crapping rose pedals on Saturday night is Sam P. For whatever reason, Dominguez put Sam P. (a stalker) on the lead in the Santa Anita where he ran 3rd. If he does the right thing here on Saturday and lets him sit back, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Sam P. finish in the money. Also is a career 1 for 2 at Churchill.
Stormello (30-1) Trn: W. Currin. Jky: K. Desormeaux. If you want to see a gutsy performance, check out the race replay of the ’06 Hollywood Futurity. It was one of the few “Don’t Deletes” on my seldom-used Comcast DVR. The problem is Stormello is more of a speed horse, and rarely does that translate to success at the stalker/closer friendly 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby.
Tiago (20-1) Trn: J. Shiffeffs. Jky: M. Smith. Any “f’ing Giacomo” fans out there? Well, you might want to take a look at his half-brother Tiago. He’s got the same trainer/jockey combo as the ’05 longshot Derby winner, and closed nicely in his win at the Santa Anita Derby. Worth taking a shot at? Sure. And yes, I’m still upset about not betting Giacomo.
Dominican (20-1) Trn: D. Miller. Jky: R. Bejarano. Since Bejarano took the mount on Dominican to start 2007, the horse has won 2 straight – most recently with an upset win in the Blue Grass over the polytrack at Keeneland. The problem here is that Dominican’s never won OFF the polytrack; he’s 0 for 4. (Meaningful side note: polytrack is a new synthetic racing surface designed to protect the horses. The Kentucky Derby, as well as all the Triple Crown races, is still run on regular dirt. And because of that, I’m still not sold on Dominican.)
Cowtown Cat (20-1) Trn: T. Pletcher. Jky: F. Jara. Cowtown Cat reminds me of this year’s Memphis team in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, he’s won his last 2 prep races – the Gotham and the Illinois Derby, but he hasn’t beaten anybody. Reporting for Duty and Bold Start who ran 2nd and 3rd in the Illinois aren’t even in the race on Saturday. Cowtown Cat does have a great young jockey in Jara who rode Jazil to victory at last year’s Belmont, but I’d be surprised if he goes back-to-back here.
Hard Spun (15-1) Trn: J. Jones. Jky: M. Pino. Along with Stormello, Hard Spun is really the only other “speed horse” in this race. Again, we have the Viagra issue – how long can he last? 4 of his 5 career wins have come at a mile or less. We’re talking a 1 1/4 mile here. His last race was a 3 length win over the polytrack in the Lanes End on March 24th, but like Cowtown Cat, he raced against a weak field. Could hang on for Show, but that’s the best I’m expecting.
Great Hunter (15-1) Trn: D. O’Neill. Jky: C. Nakatani. I’m having trouble getting a good grasp on Great Hunter. He’s a career 8 for 9 in the money, but in the 2 biggest races of his life he finished 12 lengths back in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, then ran 5th three weeks ago in the Blue Grass. Great Hunter’s just a big fat question mark for me. He’s a California horse (negative) with a running style suited for the Derby (positive). Am I willing to throw $100+ of my not-so-hard-earned money on him? At 15-1, probably not.
Any Given Saturday (10-1) Trn: T. Pletcher. Jky: G. Gomez. In a telling sign after the Wood Memorial, jockey Johnny Velazquez opted out of this horse in favor of Circular Quay. If you saw that race, you’d see why. Yes, he was wide on both turns, but Any Given Saturday was all but empty down the stretch of that race, and I’ve all but crossed him off my Derby board. (Note: Bet him now. Run.)
Scat Daddy (10-1) Trn: T. Pletcher. Jky: E. Prado. You certainly have to love this trainer/jockey combo on Scat Daddy. And I do. He’s bounced back, somewhat surprisingly, off his disappointing Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and Holy Bull performances to win his final 2 prep races, the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. Not sure if he’s quick enough to win, but I expect a top 3 finish from Scat Daddy on Saturday.
Nobiz Like Shobiz (8-1) Trn: B. Tagg. Jky: C. Velasquez. Jerry Bailey, who I love as an analyst, criticized Cornelia Velasquez for his ride on “Nobiz” in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial. Basically saying he needs to let the horse relax more during the first ¾ of a mile in order to save him for the stretch. Bailey’s right. If “Nobiz” struggled to beat Sightseeing in the Wood by a ½ length, how’s he going to take on the likes of Street Sense, Curlin and Scat Daddy? If Velasquez follows this advice, then there’s no reason to believe “Nobiz” won’t be there in the end on Saturday. Will he, or better yet, CAN he do this if the horse wants to run? We shall see.
Circular Quay (8-1) Trn: T. Pletcher. Jky: J. Velazquez. ALERT: 8 week layoff. ALERT: 8 week layoff. This horse has plenty of qualities you look for in a Derby winner -- showed he can close in each of his 7 starts. Is 2 for 3 lifetime at Churchill. Won the Louisiana Derby. Great trainer/jockey combo. His sire – Thunder Gulch, won the Derby in ’95. But. And you knew there was a but. An 8 week layoff is just too long in between starts. If you remember, this was the knock on Barbaro, but A., Barbaro’s layoff was only 5 weeks, and B., this horse is no Barbaro.
Street Sense (6-1) Trn: C. Nafzger. Jky: C. Borel. I have a feeling this horse will go off as the post time favorite because people, especially gamblers, always remember the last thing they saw. Street Sense’s last race at Churchill was the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile where he dominated the field, including Circular Quay, Great Hunter and Scat Daddy. But that day, for whatever reason, there was a huge “rail bias” at Churchill Downs. “Rail bias” meaning the #1 horses were lighting up the tote boards. Believe me, I was betting 2-15 all day. Street Sense was in the 1-hole for the BC Juvenile and that certainly could’ve contributed to his overwhelming success that day.
Curlin (6-1) Trn: S. Asmussen. Jky: R. Albarado. I was upstairs at Suffolk Downs back on February 3rd to catch an afternoon of racing. The feature event of the day was the Holy Bull, which kicked off the Derby prep-racing season. But in all honesty, I don’t remember a damn thing about the Holy Bull. All I remember about that day (besides the maniacs screaming at the TV’s) was a jaw-dropping performance by a horse in the 4th race down at Gulfstream Park who obliterated the field in the first race of his life. He was so wide down the stretch I thought he was gonna hop the fence and sit down for dinner at the restaurant overlooking the track. Did I bet him? Of course not. But I was sure to jot down his name. “Curlin”.
His next race was a 5 length win in the Rebel; then 3 weeks ago, once again he dominated the competition at Oaklawn with a 10 length romp in the Arkansas Derby. Like Smarty Jones in ’04 and Barbaro in ‘06, Curlin is undefeated heading into the Kentucky Derby. Yes, he’s trying to end a streak of 125 years since a horse (Apollo) has won the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. But I’m hoping this horse is talented enough to do it.
Derby Picks: Win – Curlin. Place – Scat Daddy. Show – Circular Quay. Longshots: Sam P. and Dominican.
Good luck and enjoy the race.