Barstool Sports 4th Annual Kentucky Derby Spectacular
Well once again the first Saturday in May is upon us, which of course means opening day at Suffolk Downs, old dudes sleeping on the Blue Line and the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.
Now this might be one of the more mediocre crops of 3 year olds I’ve seen since handicapping the Derby as a small degenerate child. Every horse up and down this lineup has question marks. One minute I look at the field and think anybody can win, the next minute I look at the field and think nobody can win it. You’ve got horses who’ve never won on regular dirt, horses who’ve never even raced on regular dirt, and horses with only 3 career starts coming out of the 20-hole, a spot where no horse has won the Derby from since before the Great Depression.
And speaking of Great Depression, obviously this is going to be a tough race to predict, however as Americans we’re required by law to bet it. Personally, after my horses have run 3rd in back-to-back years now, well, nothing short of 2nd place will do.
Here's this year's breakdown by post:
#1 – Cool Coal Man Trainer - N. Zito Jockey - J. Leparoux Morning line: 20-1
I liked about 6 different horses to win the Derby in the last 24 hours and “CCM”, as his buddies call him, was one of them. Clearly he likes the rail - on regular dirt CCM is a perfect 3-0 from the 1-hole including the Fountain of Youth back in February. The problems are not only did he run 9th in his last start in the Blue Grass (we’ll talk more about that race later), but CCM is getting a new jockey for the Derby which you never like to see. Nothing against Julien Leparoux, I’d just rather have a rider more familiar with the horse for the biggest race of his life.
#2 – Tale of Ekati Trn - B. Tagg Jky - E. Coa ML: 15-1
Or as my buddy calls him “Tale of Bukaki”, however that’s not how it’s pronounced. Keep in mind though, this is the same buddy who blindly bet Giacomo 3 years ago and came out of Suffolk Downs with a wheelbarrow that day. But this time I don’t think he’ll be that lucky. Tale of EKATI was simply not that impressive in his win at the Wood Memorial considering how the race broke for him and how sloooooow his final time was of 1:52.2. Also not a good sign when Edgar Prado jumps ship.
#3 – Anak Nakal Trn- N. Zito Jky - R. Bejarano ML: 30-1
Another horse who’s name could get tricky for Tom Durkin, and yet another horse who has no chance to win. Coincidence? Probably. Anak Nakal not only hasn’t won a race as a 3 year old, but he hasn’t even been closer than 5th. See you at Finger Lakes.
#4 – Court Vision Trn - W. Mott Jky - G. Gomez ML: 20-1
After a promising end to his 2 year old campaign, Court Vision just has back-to-back 3rd place finishes here in 2008. If you think that’s good enough to justify a Win bet on him in the Kentucky Derby, go right ahead. I’ll look for somebody else.
#5 – Eight Belles Trn - L. Jones Jky - G. Saez ML: 20-1
Since hitting paydirt with Rags to Riches last year in the Belmont, the ladies have been kind to me at the track. No, not the old bags at the betting window, I’m talking about the horses. Now if Eight Belles becomes the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby since (everybody) Winning Colors in 1988, we might have our first Equine Local Smokeshow on our hands. The problem is even though she’s 4 for 4 in 2008 as a 3 year old, none of her wins have been against the boys. Who knows, maybe she’s just here to hit on all the 3 old males if you know what I mean. Or maybe it’s just Derby fever… See you in the Alabama.
#6 – Z Fortune Trn - S. Asmussen Jky - R. Albarado ML: 15-1
Hmmm, where we have seen these connections before? We can stop there because, no disrespect to Z Fortune, he’s just not in the same class as Curlin – the reigning Horse of the Year. Z Fortune is still a solid horse with a late running style that suits him well for the Derby. He ran a huge race his last time out in the Arkansas Derby, unfortunately I think it might have been a little too good as I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a regression tomorrow in Louisville.
#7 – Big Truck Trn - B. Tagg Jky – J. Castellano ML: 50-1
Here’s another horse coming off a disappointing/puzzling performance in the Blue Grass Stakes. Now you’ll hear a lot of talk about that race tomorrow on ESPN and NBC, basically nobody knows what the f*ck happened. Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss almost got into a fist fight after the race it was that much up for debate. And still is. Cool Coal Man finished 9th, Pyro ran 10th and Big freakin’ Truck here came in 11th. Frankly I don’t know what to make of the Blue Grass other than saying great horses should be able to win on any surface. Yes, including the moon. You can’t just go around blaming the track every time a horse loses on the synthetic. Secretariat wouldn’t. And I know that because I asked him. 3rd or 4th is one thing, 9th or 10th is another story - that’s why I’m staying away from Big Truck and the others.
#8 – Visionaire Trn – M. Matz Jky – J. Lezcano ML: 20-1
See, this is different. Visionaire finished in the money every race of his life until the Blue Grass where he ran a decent 5th. I’m a reasonable guy, I can forgive that. However, I still think he’s a cut below the rest. Possible Show money, that’s it.
#9 – Pyro Trn – S. Asmussen Jky – S. Bridgmohan ML: 6-1
Well here we go again with the Blue Grass. All things considered Pyro is still the most accomplished horse in the race. Would I blame somebody if they bet him? No. I like the connections and the post, but again – 10th place at the Blue Grass is still bothering me. It’s like the stench in Seinfeld’s car that just wouldn’t go away... 10th! 10th!!! Pyro is such a quality horse though he should still hit the board for Place or Show.
#10 – Colonel John Trn – H. Eion Jky – C. Nakatani ML: 4-1
As stated in the opening, this one of those horses who’s not only winless in his career on regular dirt, but hasn’t even raced on regular dirt. All 6 of Colonel John’s lifetime starts have come on the synthetic surface racing in California, so literally nobody knows how he’s going to handle the track at Churchill. The positives for Colonel John (and his supporters) are that A., he’s looked great in his works, B., his sire, Tiznow, won the Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill back in 2000 and C., going from synthetic to dirt seems to be easier than going from dirt to synthetic. If you saw the way this horse finished in the Santa Anita Derby you had to be impressed. I like his running style, I like his post; hopefully not too many people bet him though because I’d like to get a better price than 4-1.
#11 – Z Humor Trn – W. Mott Jky – R. Douglas ML: 30-1
This horse is coming off a 5th in the Sam Davis, a 4th in the Fountain of Youth and a 3rd in the Illinois Derby with Douglas aboard. Not really sure what to make of this horse which scares me. He was a clear cut below the Pyros and War Passes of the world as a 2 year old and he’d have to really step up his game in a huge way to win the Kentucky Derby.
#12 – Smooth Air Trn – BF Stutts Jky – M. Cruz ML: 20-1
If you liked Big Brown’s performance in the Florida Derby, this was the horse that ran 2nd by a convincing 5 lengths. I like the fact that Manny Cruz has been aboard every race of his life, but distance will be a big problem for Smooth Air on the first Saturday in May.
(Side note – Barstool recommends the recently released documentary “The First Saturday in May”, obviously about the Kentucky Derby. It follows 5 horses and their trainers from the 2006 Derby trail, including Barbaro and Lawyer Ron. It’s pretty good, but not great, especially for the hardcore degenerate who already knows how everything plays out. As I commented during the film, “I bet on all of these races.”)
#13 – Bob Black Jack Trn – J. Kasparoff Jky – R. Migliore ML: 20-1
Like the Sinister Ministers and Spanish Chestnuts of the past few years, Bob Black Jack should control the early pace of this race. Your buddy who bets him is going to be yelling at the half-mile pole, “Stop the race! Stop the race!” but unfortunately for him, and Bob Black Jack, he still has a long way to go.
#14 – Monba Trn – T. Pletcher Jky – R. Dominguez ML: 15-1
Like Providence College in the Big East Tournament, winning the Blue Grass Stakes was Monba’s only chance to get into this year’s Big Dance a.k.a. the Kentucky Derby. And he did. We’ve talked enough about what happened in the Blue Grass so I’ll let it go, but it’s not a good sign when the Hall of Fame rider who took you home that day, Edgar Prado, opts out in favor of another horse. Therefore I don’t like Monba's chances tomorrow.
#15 – Adriano Trn – H.G Motion Jky – E. Prado ML: 30-1
And speaking of Edgar Prado, here he is on Adriano. Hmm, Prado leaves one horse and he’s 15-1 and joins the other who’s 30-1? Something doesn’t smell right and it ain’t me. This is one of those “Vegas is smarter than everybody else” theories so I’ve learned my lesson not to question it. However I’m also not questioning Edgar Prado - if he thinks Adriano has a better chance than Monba to win then Adriano has a better chance than Monba to win. Problem is he hasn’t really beaten anybody good in his entire career and all 3 of his wins have come on either a synthetic track or turf.
#16 – Denis of Cork Trn – D. Carroll Jky – C. Borel ML: 20-1
The connections have been getting killed here for not running this horse in the Rebel Stakes and rightly so. Now I didn’t talk to Denis of Cork but I’m sure he wanted to race that day as the layoff clearly bothered him in the Illinois Derby where he finished 5th out of 7 horses. Either way, I like Denis of Cork, or as the French say “Denis of Cork”. 1., he made a big move to win the Southwest Stakes which I’d recommend watching. 2., he’s already got a win back in November at Churchill Downs and 3., I like the fact that last year’s Derby winning jockey, Calvin Borel, is aboard. A talented horse with a lot of upside, especially at 20-1.
#17 – Cowboy Cal Trn – T. Pletcher Jky – J. Velazquez ML: 20-1
If you were waiting for the Pletcher/Velazquez entry like I know some people always do, here it is with Cowboy Cal. Like Pletcher’s other horse, Monba, he got in by virtue of a top 2 finish in the shit-show also known as the Blue Grass Stakes. A very strange pattern though for this horse, other than the Blue Grass which was on synthetic, Cowboy Cal has been racing on grass ever since last August when he finished 7th on the Saratoga main track. Not exactly promising. Hey, I’m sure these people know what they’re doing but I’d say this horse is a stretch, even at 20-1.
#18 – Recapturetheglory Trn – LJ Roussel III Jky – ET Baird ML: 20-1
“Ohhh, he’s War Emblem! He’s War Emblem!” Why is it every time a freakin’ horse wins the Illinois Derby everybody thinks he’s War Emblem? Dude, he’s not War Emblem. I knew War Emblem… he was a friend of mine… and Recapturetheglory, you sir are no War Emblem! Also, this is why you wait until after the post draw before you make any picks. Lesson learned from the last 3 years. See you at Hawthorne.
#19 – Gayego Trn – L. Paulo Jky – M. Smith ML: 15-1
If you’re a fan of the Arkansas Derby, you have to like Gayego. Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin and now Gayego have won that race the last 5 years. That ain’t no joke! The problem is the distance might be too much of a factor coming out of the 19-hole. Like Lawyer Ron, Gayego probably won’t hit the board in the Derby.
#20 – Big Brown Trn – R. Dutrow Jr. Jky – K. Desormeaux ML: 3-1
There’s a reason why it’s been so long since a horse has A., won the Kentucky Derby with only 3 races under their belt or B., came from the 20-post to do it. We’re talking 1915 on the former and 1929 on the latter. From what I’ve seen, Big Brown is the most talented horse in the field but he’d have to put in a Secretariat-in-the-Belmont type effort to win this race which would obviously be extremely, extremely impressive. I just think his obstacles are too steep to overcome.
The pick: I'm torn between the Colonel and Denis of Cork... therefore,
Win – Denis of Cork, Place - Colonel John, Show – Pyro, 4th - Big Brown
Good luck and we’ll see you at the Preakness.