Barstool Breeders Cup Blog – “Ladies Day”
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Well this has certainly been an interesting year to say the least in thoroughbred horse racing. You had Big Brown flopping in the Belmont after capturing the first 2 legs of the Triple Crown, the death of Eight Belles, Curlin losing to Red Rocks, Manzo hitting the Tri in the Mass Cap, in other words – it was a year of the unexpected in 2008 and this weekend it all comes to a close with the running of the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, CA. Today is day 1 aka “Ladies Day” of the event as the females take to the track for 5 BC races culminating with the “Ladies Classic”, which is not an undergarment, but the 1 1/8 mile, $2 million finale headlined by undefeated Zenyatta (named after a “Police” album) at 3-5. Should be a great weekend of racing, although a tough one to handicap as many of these horses are trying the Santa Anita synthetic “pro-ride” surface for the first time. Let’s just hope we hit a few races and our bank accounts don’t take too much of a hit like it has in year’s past. Ok - first race today is at 3:15, so hopefully your boss doesn’t mind you following along/gambling from work. Also be sure to check the blog tomorrow morning, assuming we have any money left, when it starts all over again at 1:00 with 9 more races, including the Turf, the Classic and the “Degenerate Race”, which is the meaningless race after the BC Classic which nobody bets except true degenerates and nobody covers except The Stool.
Good luck and enjoy the weekend.
Friday’s Races
Race 3 – Filly and Mare Sprint, 7 furlongs. Purse - $1 million
Well after much debate on the opener, I’m going with one of the most underrated horses in the entire Breeders Cup and that’s the 3 – Intanagroo at 9-2. She’s won 3 G1 races this year but still nobody has ever heard of her. What I like about her is that she’s a big closer here in a race that offers tons of speed, I also like that she’s 5 for 5 in the money over the Santa Anita surface as well as 3 for 5 in the winners circle going 7 furlongs. Indian Blessing is one of the top fillies in the country but there are questions on how she’ll like the track, same for the 6 – Zaftig and the 12- Ventura. Therefore I’m going with a bit of an upset in the first race with the3 – Intangaroo.
The pick: Win – Intangaroo Place – Indian Blessing Show – Zaftig
Race 4 – Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1 mile. Purse - $1 million
This race is driving everyone crazy – I’ve only narrowed it down to the 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 and 9. But you have to pick one and I’m going with the 4 - C Karma at 8-1 with Cornelio Velasquez. The reason? Well she’s a perfect 5 for 5 in the money this year with a win over the 2 – Laragh, who I think will disappoint in this race. C Karma was racing over the synthetic all year before moving to the turf in her last race where she won a G3 race up at Woodbine, also at today’s distance of 1 mile. I just think she’s the one to beat in a relatively weak BC field.
The pick: Win – C Karma Place – Consequence Show – Maram
Race 5 – Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 mile. Purse - $2 million
People are promoting the Juvenile Fillies as basically a 2 horse race between Sky Diva and Stardom Bound, however I only half agree. Sky Diva is untested on the polytrack and that is a big concern for me, therefore I’m going with a favorite finally, the 10 – Stardom Bound. Stardom Bound just won going 1 1/16 mile over the Santa Anita track in the G1 Oak Leaf last month. Also note there’s a lot of speed in this race with the 5, 8, 9, and 13, so I like that Stardom Bound will be coming from off the pace. Dream Empress with Kent Desmoreux should also be there, she’s 2 for 2 going 1 1/16 including a win in the G1 Alcibides earlier this month at Keeneland.
The pick: Win – Stardom Bound Place – Dream Empress Show – Sky Diva
Race 6 – Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/4 mile. Purse - $2 million
An excellent field here for the F+M turf, this should be a great race if you happen to win money on it. I’ve got a big upset lined up here and it’s the 10 – Pure Clan at 15-1 with Edgar Prado aboard. Basically I’m not in love with the favorite – Wait a While, or the second and third choices – Halfway to Heaven and Forever Together. If you take a look at Pure Clan, this is a horse that only lost to Kentucky Derby 2nd place horse Eight Belles (RIP) earlier in the year on dirt. Since they switched her to turf in June, she’s 2 for 3, including the G1 American Oaks at Hollywood Park. This horse is owned by IEAH stables (Big Brown), who I hate, but I love the jockey (Edgar Prado), so hopefully that offsets the bad karma. Big upset here in the 6th.
The pick: Win – Pure Clan Place – Wait a While Show – Halfway to Heaven
Race 7 - Ladies Classic (formerly known as the Distaff), 1 1/8 mile. Purse - $2 million.
Well this could be the best race of the entire Breeders Cup. You’ve got three 3-time G1 winners in Ginger Punch, Music Note and of course undefeated Zenyatta (named after a “Police” album) who is 3-5 on the morning line. Now obviously Zenyatta is the best horse in the race, and could be in the running for horse of the year, but if 2008 has taught us anything it’s that anything can happen on the track. The way people are talking about Zenyatta reminds me of Lost in the Fog from a few years ago who was undefeated going into the BC and came in last in the Sprint. Now I don’t think that will happen here but it always makes me nervous that everyone likes her so much. All that said, I still don’t think you can’t pick against her. 8 for 8 lifetime, 2 for 2 at Santa Anita with wins over Hysterical Lady, Santa Teresita and Ginger Punch. If I had to pick somebody to beat her – it would be the 3 – Cocoa Beach, who beat Ginger Punch in their last race – the G1 Beldame at Belmont.
The pick: Win – Zenyatta Place – Cocoa Beach Show – Ginger Punch
Good luck and we’ll see you tomorrow.